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August 2025 Monthly

August 02, 2025
The August lull is a myth—a mirage for those who mistake heat for inertia. As this summer advances, businesses and investors should brace for turbulence, not tranquility. A kaleidoscope of US tariffs, an escalation of Russia's assault on Ukraine ahead of the American deadline, deceleration of US growth, when looking through the trade-related d…
August 2025 Monthly August 2025 Monthly Reviewed by Marc Chandler on August 02, 2025 Rating: 5
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Did the Fed Really Deliver a Hawkish Hold? The FX Market Seems to Think So

July 31, 2025
No commentary on Friday but August monthly drops Saturday.  Daily commentary to resume Wednesday, August 6. Overview: The dollar jumped yesterday on the back of rising rates as if despite the two dovish dissents by governors, yesterday's FOMC meeting was a hawkish hold. It seemed to us that Fed Chair Powell referred to downside risks more than…
Did the Fed Really Deliver a Hawkish Hold? The FX Market Seems to Think So Did the Fed Really Deliver a Hawkish Hold?  The FX Market Seems to Think So Reviewed by Marc Chandler on July 31, 2025 Rating: 5
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Narrow Dollar Ranges are Unlikely to be Sustained through the Packed North American Session Narrow Dollar Ranges are Unlikely to be Sustained through the Packed North American Session Reviewed by Marc Chandler on July 30, 2025 Rating: 5
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Dollar Short-Squeeze Extended before Stalling ahead of Tomorrow's Key Events Dollar Short-Squeeze Extended before Stalling ahead of Tomorrow's Key Events Reviewed by Marc Chandler on July 29, 2025 Rating: 5
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Trade Deal Weighs on the Euro

July 28, 2025
Overview: The US and EU struck a trade deal that is less onerous than threatened and reduces the uncertainty plaguing businesses and investors. In May, President Trump threatened a 50% tariff on most EU goods, and yesterday, agreed to 15% (including autos and pharma, but not metals). There seems to be some debate over whether quota and tariff syst…
Trade Deal Weighs on the Euro Trade Deal Weighs on the Euro Reviewed by Marc Chandler on July 28, 2025 Rating: 5
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Week Ahead: Supportive Dollar Technicals vs Possible Dovish Hold by FOMC and Slower Jobs Growth  Week Ahead:  Supportive Dollar Technicals vs Possible Dovish Hold by FOMC and Slower Jobs Growth Reviewed by Marc Chandler on July 26, 2025 Rating: 5
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