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Policy Dilemma Eases

June 16, 2006
US data in recent days helped ease concern that the economy is not strong enough to withstand the kind of tightening the Federal Reserve may need to enact in order to return inflation and inflation expectations back within officials comfort zone. And make no mistake about it, the pendulum of market sentiment has swung hard, abandoning the one and …
Policy Dilemma Eases Policy Dilemma Eases Reviewed by magonomics on June 16, 2006 Rating: 5
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How Now Greenback

June 09, 2006
We can identify thee main considerations when trying to ascertain the near-term outlook for the US dollar: market positioning, interest rates and the G7/IMF. Let’s review each, but to cut to the chase, the first two seem dollar supportive, though the third may exert pressure in the other direction.
Market Positioning
The market had amassed substanti…
How Now Greenback How Now Greenback Reviewed by magonomics on June 09, 2006 Rating: 5
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Strong Dollar in Word, Benign Neglect in Deed

June 02, 2006
The disappointing May employment data caught the market wrong-footed. The pricing of the July Fed funds futures contract had implied almost a 75% chance of a 25 bp hike later this month prior to the data and the combination of weaker than expected payroll growth and a moderate rise in hourly earnings have seen the odds fall toward 40%. As one woul…
Strong Dollar in Word, Benign Neglect in Deed Strong Dollar in Word, Benign Neglect in Deed Reviewed by magonomics on June 02, 2006 Rating: 5
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