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Monitoring the Crisis

January 29, 2009
Investors and policy makers are looking at new ways to monitor the financial crisis. After Lehman failed last September, there were clear metrics. For example, the spread between LIBO and the Overnight Index Swaps (OIS) and the spread between T-bills and LIBOR (TED spread) were widely used. While these metrics, popular thermometers for gauging the…
Monitoring the Crisis Monitoring the Crisis Reviewed by magonomics on January 29, 2009 Rating: 5
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Thoughts on the FOMC: Ten Points

January 26, 2009
I. The Federal Reserve Open Market Committee holds a two-day meeting this week, with the outcome anticipated near 2:15 pm on Wednesday, January 28. There is little doubt that the Fed funds target of 0-25 bp will be retained. The accompanying statement will receive the market’s full attention.
II. The data since the mid-Dec FOMC meeting has been dre…
Thoughts on the FOMC: Ten Points Thoughts on the FOMC: Ten Points Reviewed by magonomics on January 26, 2009 Rating: 5
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A Crisis with Chinese Characteristics

January 23, 2009
There is no doubt that the advanced industrialized countries are deep in an economic downturn. Given that consensus expectations continue to overshoot the actual data, it appears that many still do not fully appreciate the magnitude. The fact that policy makers continue to cut growth forecasts implies they too have not appreciated the depth of the…
A Crisis with Chinese Characteristics A Crisis with Chinese Characteristics Reviewed by magonomics on January 23, 2009 Rating: 5
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The Future of the Strong Dollar Policy

January 16, 2009
Shortly after Barrack Obama is sworn in next week as the 44th President of the United States, the strong dollar policy turns 14 years old. It may not be much of an exaggeration to suggest as goes Obama’s dollar policy so goes his Administration.
This is not to endorse overly simplistic notions that the dollar is like stock in America. There are a m…
The Future of the Strong Dollar Policy The Future of the Strong Dollar Policy Reviewed by magonomics on January 16, 2009 Rating: 5
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CNBC: Bullish on the Dollar CNBC: Bullish on the Dollar Reviewed by Marc Chandler on January 14, 2009 Rating: 5
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Feel the Elephant

January 09, 2009
There is a parable about the human condition that is particularly apropos for investors in the current investment climate characterized by high volatility and great uncertainty. Five blind men walking through the jungle stumble on an elephant. But of course they don’t know it is an elephant because they are blind. One feels the tail and say’s it i…
Feel the Elephant Feel the Elephant Reviewed by magonomics on January 09, 2009 Rating: 5
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No Exit For Japan

January 07, 2009
Early word from the G8 meeting, like the EU fin min meeting, is that officials recognize that it is premature to enact exit strategies from the emergency facilities and actions to address the economic and financial crisis.
The BOJ is the next major central bank to meet. It will hold its meeting on July 14th-15th. Its current program, which include…
No Exit For Japan No Exit For Japan Reviewed by magonomics on January 07, 2009 Rating: 5
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