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House Prices, Delinquencies and the Dollar

June 30, 2009
The much watched Case/Shiller house price index pace of decline is slowing. In Jan, home prices in the 20-large urban centers were 19.01% below year ago levels and today we learned that in April prics were off 18.12% year-over-year. This is the slowest pace of decline since last Oct. Eight of the 20 cities reported an increase in prices in the mon…
House Prices, Delinquencies and the Dollar House Prices, Delinquencies and the Dollar Reviewed by magonomics on June 30, 2009 Rating: 5
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Some Sterling Thoughts

June 30, 2009
Sterling rose to eight months highs earlier today, before the disappointingly large current account deficit. Sterling held important support near $1.6550 and is trying to recover. Only a break of this support would darken the near-term outlook. A move above $1.6650 would signal the end of the downside correction that saw cable shed nearly two cent…
Some Sterling Thoughts Some Sterling Thoughts Reviewed by magonomics on June 30, 2009 Rating: 5
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The Dollar is Alive and Well - Washington Post Letter to the Editor The Dollar is Alive and Well - Washington Post Letter to the Editor Reviewed by magonomics on June 30, 2009 Rating: 5
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Gilts, Sterling, and European Bonds

June 29, 2009
UK gilts and sterling itself responded positively to earlier news that the BOE's reverse auction to buy GBP3.5 bln was well received. There were offers for GBP4.3 bln. The BOE will conduct another reverse auction on 1 July and buy GBP3 bln worth of bonds.
Gilts, Sterling, and European Bonds Gilts, Sterling, and European Bonds Reviewed by magonomics on June 29, 2009 Rating: 5
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Debt Revival a Major Surprise of H1

June 29, 2009
One of the surprising developments in the H1 2009 has been explosion of debt issuance, outside of the sovereign sector. The $345 billion of high grade issuance in Europe, for example, surpasses full year records. Globally, the financial sector issued about $730 billion of debt while the non-financial sector issued about $886 billion, according to …
Debt Revival a Major Surprise of H1 Debt Revival a Major Surprise of H1 Reviewed by magonomics on June 29, 2009 Rating: 5
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China News

June 29, 2009
There are several developments to note in China.
First, with deflationary forces still gripping the economy (year-over-year CPI has been negative by more than 1% since Feb), weakness in exports, Chinese officials are unlikely to allow the yuan to appreciate very much during the second half of the calendar year. The pricing of the non-deliverable f…
China News China News Reviewed by magonomics on June 29, 2009 Rating: 5
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Bloomberg: Dollar Ready To Rebound Again Bloomberg: Dollar Ready To Rebound Again Reviewed by Marc Chandler on June 29, 2009 Rating: 5
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Tankan Highlight for Japan in the Week Ahead

June 26, 2009
One of the most watched reports from Japan, the Tankan Survey, will be reported on July 1st in Tokyo. The results for large manufacturers is often the headline and it has fallen uninterrupted since the middle of 2007. Unsurprisingly it collapsed since the middle of last year. However the next reading should show the first improvement in 3 years. T…
Tankan Highlight for Japan in the Week Ahead Tankan Highlight for Japan in the Week Ahead Reviewed by magonomics on June 26, 2009 Rating: 5
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CNBC: Dollar In Danger? CNBC: Dollar In Danger? Reviewed by Marc Chandler on June 26, 2009 Rating: 5
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The Visible Hand: Central Banks at Work

June 26, 2009
In recent days the actions of the European Central Bank and Swiss National Bank have had significant implications. There are also new signals from the US Federal Reserve. These events deserve closer scrutiny.
SNB Let’s begin with the Swiss National Bank. Recall that back in March the SNB acknowledged it faced a serious threat of deflation. It indica…
The Visible Hand: Central Banks at Work The Visible Hand: Central Banks at Work Reviewed by magonomics on June 26, 2009 Rating: 5
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More Thoughts on the SNB

June 26, 2009
The SNB is believed to have intervened Wed and Thurs in a more aggressive manner than they have since announcing their quantitative easing back in March. It does not appear to have intervened today, leaving many stale long euro/short Swiss franc positions. Many of these positions are in the hands of momentum traders. Without any fresh follow thoug…
More Thoughts on the SNB More Thoughts on the SNB Reviewed by magonomics on June 26, 2009 Rating: 5
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Not all Current Account Deficits are Equal

June 26, 2009
Many observers are concluding that the recent run on the South African rand, the Turkish lira, the Hungarian forint and the New Zealand dollar is a function of their current account deficits. There is some befuddlement then that the US dollar, with a current account deficit above 6% of GDP, has held in so well. The answer to the conundrum is two-f…
Not all Current Account Deficits are Equal Not all Current Account Deficits are Equal Reviewed by magonomics on June 26, 2009 Rating: 5
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East European Currency Trade Idea and Implications

June 25, 2009
The Polish zloty should outperform the Czech koruna. Poland's reported stronger than expected retail sales for May today. The 2.1% decline on the monthly time series is 2/3 of the decline the consensus expected, which was largely a correction to the heady 5% rise in April. The year-over-year rate actually increased to 1.1% from 1.0% (the conse…
East European Currency Trade Idea and Implications East European Currency Trade Idea and Implications Reviewed by magonomics on June 25, 2009 Rating: 5
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SNB

June 25, 2009
The Swiss National Bank has turned more aggressive in its intervention and it appears they have followed up yesterday's bouts with another one today, though with somewhat diminished effect. In addition to bidding the market higher and coming in more than once, the other way the SNB has turned more aggressive is that it also appears to have int…
SNB SNB Reviewed by magonomics on June 25, 2009 Rating: 5
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After the Fed...

June 25, 2009
The market continues to digest the meaning of the Fed's inaction yesterday. There was no increase in Treasury or other long-term asset purchases. There was no indication that an exit strategy was coming more into view. There was not heightened commitment, beyond what it has said in the past, to keep rates low. There seemed to be no protest of …
After the Fed... After the Fed... Reviewed by magonomics on June 25, 2009 Rating: 5
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Fed Does Nothing

June 24, 2009
The dollar has rallied following news that the Federal Reserve did nothing. They did not change their assessment of the economy, the committment to keep rates low for a prolonged period of time, or the amount of Treasuries or other long-term assets to be purchased. Nor did the Fed say anything about an exit strategy.The pace of economic contractio…
Fed Does Nothing Fed Does Nothing Reviewed by magonomics on June 24, 2009 Rating: 5
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Begger Thy Neighbor Currency Policies, Except the United States Begger Thy Neighbor Currency Policies, Except the United States Reviewed by magonomics on June 24, 2009 Rating: 5
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Change in SNB Tactic?

June 24, 2009
Yesterday we cautioned that the SNB's tactics appeared to have reached a point of diminishing returns. We thought the SNB would have to change their tactics. We suggested that they might let the euro go below CHF1.50 to spring a bear trap. Wrong. Instead it appears they have stepped up the aggressiveness of their intervention. Although actual …
Change in SNB Tactic? Change in SNB Tactic? Reviewed by magonomics on June 24, 2009 Rating: 5
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Summary of EPRF Flow Report

June 23, 2009
The latest EPFR flow report covers the week ending June 17th. The key highlight is large sums continue to exit the money market funds and is being put to work in equities and bond funds. EPFR reported that $55 bln left money market funds in that week, which is the largest it has recorded.
Summary of EPRF Flow Report Summary of EPRF Flow Report Reviewed by magonomics on June 23, 2009 Rating: 5
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Venezuela Spurs Action

June 23, 2009
Venezuela is produces a heavy crude oil that requires extra processing/upgrading to make it useful. It has been trying to diversify its sales away from the US. Not all countries have refineries that can process Venezuela's heavy crude, but China has some capacity, for example. Heavy crude supply from Mexico has also fallen over the past year. …
Venezuela Spurs Action Venezuela Spurs Action Reviewed by magonomics on June 23, 2009 Rating: 5
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Euro-Swiss: Risk Going to the Cookie Jar Too Much

June 23, 2009
The euro is slipping back toward the CHF1.50 level, which has buoyed the euro since the SNB announced its quantitative easing/foreign bond purchases back in March. It held most recently last Thursday, when there were rumors of direct or indirect intervention by the SNB. While in the past we favored buying euros as the lower end of the range was ap…
Euro-Swiss: Risk Going to the Cookie Jar Too Much Euro-Swiss: Risk Going to the Cookie Jar Too Much Reviewed by magonomics on June 23, 2009 Rating: 5
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Why Chile is So Strong, While Copper Prices Slide

June 22, 2009
Copper prices are off almost 4.5% today, yet the Chilean peso has recovered from early weakness to trade at fresh 9-month highs. If it is not copper driving the Chilean peso, what is?
The most important consideration that has extended the peso's advancing streak to its fifth consecutive session is anticipation that the government will increase…
Why Chile is So Strong, While Copper Prices Slide Why Chile is So Strong, While Copper Prices Slide Reviewed by Marc Chandler on June 22, 2009 Rating: 5
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European Bond Supply This Week, With A Twist

June 22, 2009
While there is much talk of large supply of US Treasuries this week (~$104 bln), European countries are bringing their own supply as well. However, France, Beligium and Ireland plan to sell bonds this week but rather than auction them, as they usually do, they will sell them through the banks. Bank will underwrite around 10 bln euros worth of bond…
European Bond Supply This Week, With A Twist European Bond Supply This Week, With A Twist Reviewed by Marc Chandler on June 22, 2009 Rating: 5
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Head and Shoulders Bottom in USD vs SEK

June 22, 2009
The new concerns about world growth and profit-taking on what have been strong performers in H1 has seen the US dollar push through a neck line of a potential head and shoulders bottoming pattern of against the Swedish krona. However, short-term momentum readings were over-bought when the dollar rose through the SEK8.00 level. Look for the dollar …
Head and Shoulders Bottom in USD vs SEK Head and Shoulders Bottom in USD vs SEK Reviewed by Marc Chandler on June 22, 2009 Rating: 5
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World Growth Donwgrade, China Weigh on Commodities

June 22, 2009
The combination of the World Bank's forecast for a deeper contaction this year than it anticipated as recently as March, coupled with some reports that China's commodity stockpiling is set to slow has weighed on industrial metal prices and has encouraged profit-taking in the so-called commodity currencies, like Canadian and Australian doll…
World Growth Donwgrade, China Weigh on Commodities World Growth Donwgrade, China Weigh on Commodities Reviewed by Marc Chandler on June 22, 2009 Rating: 5
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US Housing Data This Week- Second Month of Gains Expected US Housing Data This Week- Second Month of Gains Expected Reviewed by magonomics on June 22, 2009 Rating: 5
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Inflate This

June 19, 2009
Astronomers generally believe that the universe was very compact until a cosmic explosion, the big-bang, took place, almost 14 billion years ago. Ever since the universe has been cooling and inflating. While that inflation may be good in astronomical terms, creditors and investors traditionally abhor that which destroys the value of their capital.
Inflate This Inflate This Reviewed by magonomics on June 19, 2009 Rating: 5
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Key Fed Data Later Today

June 18, 2009
We continue to closely follow the Federal Reserve's Thursday data releases, which include its balance sheet and its custody holdings for foreign central banks.
The US current account deficit, economists point out, is the difference between savings and investment. It, not the budget deficit, is the amount that needs to be financed by foreign cap…
Key Fed Data Later Today Key Fed Data Later Today Reviewed by magonomics on June 18, 2009 Rating: 5
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Euro Forward Pressure

June 18, 2009
Short-term European interest rates and euro forward rates are under modest pressure and will likely remain under pressure over the next few sessions.
Next Tuesday, the ECB will auction 1 year money and there is market talk that European banks and banks with branches in the eurozone are eager to secure the longer term funding. This demand appears t…
Euro Forward Pressure Euro Forward Pressure Reviewed by magonomics on June 18, 2009 Rating: 5
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Highlights of the US Current Account

June 17, 2009
The US Q1 current account figures were reported today and may have been lost in the shuffle with the unexpected Norwegian rate cut and the US CPI figures. Here are the highlights of the report: The preliminary deficit for Q1 stands at $101.5 bln, which is the smallest since Q4 01, but was still a bit larger than expected. The improvement from Q4…
Highlights of the US Current Account Highlights of the US Current Account Reviewed by magonomics on June 17, 2009 Rating: 5
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More BRIC Noises

June 17, 2009
Many people are still talking about the BRICs even though the summit concluded wihtout much in the way of fresh initiatives. Some reports suggested that the BRICs agreed to buy each other's bonds. But this seems like a gross exaggeration. Nothing has stopped these countries from buying each other's bond except prudence. Central banks appea…
More BRIC Noises More BRIC Noises Reviewed by magonomics on June 17, 2009 Rating: 5
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Fed Slowing Treasury Purchases?

June 12, 2009
Ten year Treasury yields are flat on the week after yesterday's strong rebound and limited follow through today. Yet the sharp rise in yields, including mortgages and agency bonds, had prompted speculation that the Fed would have to step up its purchases and there was even some talk that it could not wait until the next FOMC meeting which sche…
Fed Slowing Treasury Purchases? Fed Slowing Treasury Purchases? Reviewed by magonomics on June 12, 2009 Rating: 5
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Bric or Crib?

June 12, 2009
Brazil, Russia, India and China, now collectively known as the BRICs, will hold a summit in Russia on June 16th. Besides the Goldman-Sachs invented moniker, these countries have very little in common except for the fact that they believe, to seemingly varying degrees of intensity, that they deserve greater influence in the conduct of world affairs…
Bric or Crib? Bric or Crib? Reviewed by magonomics on June 12, 2009 Rating: 5
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10-Year Auction

June 10, 2009
The US auction was fairly well received. The bid-cover ratio was 2.62. This compares with 2.47 last month and an average of 2.40 in the past ten auctions. Indirect bidders, which include central banks, took down 34.2%, this is a modest increase from the 31.9% in May and an average of just below 26% in the last ten auctions. Despite these tradition…
10-Year Auction 10-Year Auction Reviewed by magonomics on June 10, 2009 Rating: 5
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Refi Cooling, but Fed Succeeded in Inducing Wave

June 10, 2009
Given the dramatic increase in yields recently, including mortgage rates, it is worth looking a bit closer than usual at the weekly mortgage application figures released earlier today.
Mortgage applications have slipped for three weeks now. The 7.2% decline in the recent week continues to pattern of weakness concentrated in the refi markets. Those…
Refi Cooling, but Fed Succeeded in Inducing Wave Refi Cooling, but Fed Succeeded in Inducing Wave Reviewed by magonomics on June 10, 2009 Rating: 5
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Near Term Currency Targets

June 09, 2009
In choppy trading the dollar is being sold into the end of the European session and new lows for the session are being recorded. Now that cooler heads are prevailing and expectations of a Fed hike are being unwound, the dollar appears poised to return to the lows seen last week.
Near Term Currency Targets Near Term Currency Targets Reviewed by magonomics on June 09, 2009 Rating: 5
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Russia WTO Bid, GCC: More than One Way to Skin Cat

June 09, 2009
Sometimes when encountering adversity, determined countries figure out another way to achieve the objective.
Russia has been trying to join the World Trade Organization for more than 15 years. Ascension requires achieving bilateral agreements with all members. One country--Georgia--effectively vetoed Russia's membership well before the hostilit…
Russia WTO Bid, GCC: More than One Way to Skin Cat Russia WTO Bid, GCC: More than One Way to Skin Cat Reviewed by magonomics on June 09, 2009 Rating: 5
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No Fed Bill Issuance

June 09, 2009
Three months ago, at a joint press conference the Federal Reserve and Treasury indicated they would seek Congressional authority for the central bank to issue its own bills. It appears to have run into a political buzz saw and contacts report Fed and Treasury officials have backed off. Contacts had suggested as much a couple of weeks ago, but pres…
No Fed Bill Issuance No Fed Bill Issuance Reviewed by magonomics on June 09, 2009 Rating: 5
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Bloomberg Reserve Comment Exaggerates

June 08, 2009
Bloomberg article "BRICs Add $60 Billion Reserves as Zhou Derides Dollar" claims that the BRIC central banks boosted reserves in May. Yet China has not reported its April reserve figures, let alone May's. The larger point of the report, that the BRIC are accumulating reserves to prevent their currencies from appreciating is probably …
Bloomberg Reserve Comment Exaggerates Bloomberg Reserve Comment Exaggerates Reviewed by magonomics on June 08, 2009 Rating: 5
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China Update

June 08, 2009
China reports several key pieces of economic data this week, including inflation, trade, investment and retail sales. Ironically, just as many are talking about green shoots among major industrialized economies (note OECD leading economic indicator reported today rose to 93.2 from 92.7 in March, with all members' readings increasing), China…
China Update China Update Reviewed by magonomics on June 08, 2009 Rating: 5
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Irish Downgrade

June 08, 2009
S&P cut Ireland's credit rating. It nows stands at AA and, with a negative outlook, the risk is another downgrade. The debt-to-GDP ratio is approaching 100% and compared with the low 40% area before the crisis began. S&P cut its triple A rating in March and Ireland's new AA rating is the same as Japan's. The immediate reaction …
Irish Downgrade Irish Downgrade Reviewed by magonomics on June 08, 2009 Rating: 5
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Ferguson vs. Krugman: Hubris of Small Diffrences

June 05, 2009
In various op-ed pages, the prolific economic historian Niall Ferguson and Nobel-prize winning economist-cum-columnist Paul Krugman are having a heated discussion. Their egos make them exaggerate what appear to be relatively minor differences, which are largely a question of emphasis.
At stake is one of the most important prices in the world—the pr…
Ferguson vs. Krugman: Hubris of Small Diffrences Ferguson vs. Krugman: Hubris of Small Diffrences Reviewed by magonomics on June 05, 2009 Rating: 5
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Sharp Backing Up In Fed Fund Expectations

June 05, 2009
The combination of the stronger than expected US employment report and two Fed officials in the past 24 hours (Hoenig and Lockhart) talking about not waiting too long to hike rates has seen the Fed funds futures sell-off sharply. The Dec futures contract is now implying an effective Fed funds rate of 47 bp. The Sept contract is implying a 28 bp ef…
Sharp Backing Up In Fed Fund Expectations Sharp Backing Up In Fed Fund Expectations Reviewed by magonomics on June 05, 2009 Rating: 5
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Mexican Peso Bounces Back

June 04, 2009
Along side other regional and major currencies, the Mexican peso has recovered as the North American session progressed. Although it is trading within yesterday's ranges, the near-term bias is for additional peso gains.
Since early May the US dollar has traded roughly between MXN12.82 and MXN13.40. Yesterday and today, the dollar tested the up…
Mexican Peso Bounces Back Mexican Peso Bounces Back Reviewed by magonomics on June 04, 2009 Rating: 5
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Dollar's Safe Haven or Beneficiary of Short-Covering

June 04, 2009
The narrative told by many is that as the financial crisis became more acute, capital from around the world flocked to the US Treasury market, and especially the short-end of the curve, for security. The dollar was driven higher on safe haven flows and now as the financial crisis has eased and some turning of second derivatives--pace of contractio…
Dollar's Safe Haven or Beneficiary of Short-Covering Dollar's Safe Haven or Beneficiary of Short-Covering Reviewed by magonomics on June 04, 2009 Rating: 5
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Bank of Canada Also Meets Today and C$ Sensitive

June 04, 2009
No doubt the greater interest lies with the ECB President Trichet's press conference, details about the covered bond purchases and new staff forecasts, but the Bank of Canada also meets today. There is no doubt that the BOC will leave the overnight rate at 25 bp. It has promised to leave it there until at middle of next year. The promise is an…
Bank of Canada Also Meets Today and C$ Sensitive Bank of Canada Also Meets Today and C$ Sensitive Reviewed by magonomics on June 04, 2009 Rating: 5
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TARP Money may not be so Easy to Return

June 03, 2009
After passing the stress tests, several US banks made it clear they want to return the TARP funds post haste. However, signals from Fed officials indicate not so fast. Reports cites three institutions, JP Morgan Chase, American Express and Morgan Stanley, which were directed to boost common equity (the former two) or raise more capital (the latter…
TARP Money may not be so Easy to Return TARP Money may not be so Easy to Return Reviewed by magonomics on June 03, 2009 Rating: 5
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US Auto Sales, GM Bankruptcy, Manufacturing and the Dollar

June 03, 2009
May auto sales were stronger than expected at a 9.9 million annual unit pace. In the same week GM filed for bankruptcy, domestic auto sales rose to 7.4 million, the highest since December (Q1 average was 6.8 million). There are several, even if underappreciated, implications. First, the inventory overhang in this sector appears to be easing and pr…
US Auto Sales, GM Bankruptcy, Manufacturing and the Dollar US Auto Sales, GM Bankruptcy, Manufacturing and the Dollar Reviewed by magonomics on June 03, 2009 Rating: 5
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Near-Term Setback in Canada May Offer a New Buy Opportunity

June 02, 2009
Since early April, the Canadian dollar has been the best performing currency, gaining about 14% against the US dollar. The Canadian dollar's rise is a function of higher commodity prices, narrowing of interest premium offered by the US (Dec Canada BAs vs Dec Eurodollars), and the preliminary signs that the global economic crisis may be easing.…
Near-Term Setback in Canada May Offer a New Buy Opportunity Near-Term Setback in Canada May Offer a New Buy Opportunity Reviewed by magonomics on June 02, 2009 Rating: 5
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Which Interest Rate is Key for the Dollar?

June 02, 2009
Before the Fed's mid-March FOMC meeting it had already been engaged in purchasing mortgage-backed securities and agency bonds, yet its decision at that meeting to ramp things up and purchase Treasuries was seen by investors as a watershed. It is interesting to re-look at the relationship between the euro and yen and other asset classes with th…
Which Interest Rate is Key for the Dollar? Which Interest Rate is Key for the Dollar? Reviewed by magonomics on June 02, 2009 Rating: 5
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Dollar Bears Still Focused on Treasury Meltdown

June 01, 2009
US Treasury yields are surging. The 10-year note yield is now up 27 bp on the session at 3.72%. Several factors are weighing on US yields today. The ISM report, coupled with the the better readings in Europe and China, keeps the greenshoots story intact. Various measures of the tensions in the financial markets have eased. There are annecdotal rep…
Dollar Bears Still Focused on Treasury Meltdown Dollar Bears Still Focused on Treasury Meltdown Reviewed by magonomics on June 01, 2009 Rating: 5
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Market Reads Middle East News as Dollar Negative

June 01, 2009
The way the markets respond to news sometimes is more revealing of the market than the news itself. Consider news an economic advisor to Qatar's Emir is worried about the dollar and suggested that now is an opportunity to diversify into different countries and currencies. Dollar bears seemed to like this news, but two important points need to …
Market Reads Middle East News as Dollar Negative Market Reads Middle East News as Dollar Negative Reviewed by magonomics on June 01, 2009 Rating: 5
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Debt Market Developments Don't Explain the Dollar's Slump

June 01, 2009
Many investors and observers are concerned about the implications of the aggressive monetary and fiscal policy in the US. The dollar's recent slide has come alongside a sharp rise in US interest rates. Many are connecting the dots in a causal fashion, but appear to be jumping to a hasty conclusion.
Debt Market Developments Don't Explain the Dollar's Slump Debt Market Developments Don't Explain the Dollar's Slump Reviewed by magonomics on June 01, 2009 Rating: 5
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