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India Booms

August 31, 2010
One key theme has been how well many emerging market economies have held up while the world's biggest economies slow. India's Q2 GDP report fits into that theme. The 8.8% year-over-year growth represents an acceleration from the 8.6% y-o-y pace in Q1. Its strong growth and elevated inflation keeps the door open to additional tightening. Th…
India Booms India Booms Reviewed by Marc Chandler on August 31, 2010 Rating: 5
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Currency Levels and Official Will and Tools

August 31, 2010
The level of speculation of month-end flows appears to be inversely related to the amount of hard evidence. Nevertheless, the market buzz attributes the euro’s modest recovery today to month-end demand. In order to be anything noteworthy, however, the euro needs to overcome resistance in the $1.2780 area. The gains in late Asia and extended in Eur…
Currency Levels and Official Will and Tools Currency Levels and Official Will and Tools Reviewed by Marc Chandler on August 31, 2010 Rating: 5
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Global Capital Markets

August 31, 2010
The US dollar is mixed as month end-considerations and risk aversion dominates. Given the heightened concern about the possibility of BOJ intervention, the Swiss franc has taken over the safe haven lead from the Japanese yen. The Swiss franc is near it best level against the dollar of the year and is at new record highs against the euro. UK data, …
Global Capital Markets Global Capital Markets Reviewed by Marc Chandler on August 31, 2010 Rating: 5
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New Week, Old Drivers

August 30, 2010
There are four major considerations in the foreign exchange market as August winds down: the trajectory of the US economy, the outlook for US monetary policy, Japan’s policy response to the weakening economy and strengthening yen, and European strains.
There is a general consensus that although Bernanke essentially revealed what in pre-crisis time…
New Week, Old Drivers New Week, Old Drivers Reviewed by Marc Chandler on August 30, 2010 Rating: 5
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Capital Markets Overivew

August 30, 2010
The US dollar is mixed at the start of the new week. The absence of London markets is serving to dampen turnover. The reluctance of the Bank of Japan to get ahead of market expectations saw the yen recover smartly after the greenback neared JPY86. Initial support for the dollar near JPY84.50 is likely to be tested shortly. For its part, the euro h…
Capital Markets Overivew Capital Markets Overivew Reviewed by Marc Chandler on August 30, 2010 Rating: 5
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Europe's Feint

August 13, 2010
The euro has been sold hard across the board in recent days, taking numerous investors and observers by surprise. After all, the European sovereign debt crisis that was so threatening earlier this year had been resolved, the fiscal austerity measures announced had re-earned the market’s confidence, and the economies had strengthened in Q2 after ne…
Europe's Feint Europe's Feint Reviewed by Marc Chandler on August 13, 2010 Rating: 5
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First CPI Rise in 4 months and Small Bounce in Retail Sales

August 13, 2010
US July CPI rose 0.3%, a tad more than expected and the first rise in four months. Of note rents increased for the second consecutive month. Core prices rose 0.1%, leaving the year-over-year rate steady at 0.9%. Retail sales rose 0.4%, a little less than expected in July, but the June figure was revised from -0.5% to -0.3%. However, more important…
First CPI Rise in 4 months and Small Bounce in Retail Sales First CPI Rise in 4 months and Small Bounce in Retail Sales Reviewed by Marc Chandler on August 13, 2010 Rating: 5
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Europe, Japan and the Dollar

August 13, 2010
The euro has failed to hold on to even modest upticks in response to stronger than expected euro-zone growth. This is important. It is among the conditions we anticipated would help reverse the trends that have emerged in the foreign exchange market over the past several weeks.
During this time, when the euro strengthened from $1.1877 to $1.3334, …
Europe, Japan and the Dollar Europe, Japan and the Dollar Reviewed by Marc Chandler on August 13, 2010 Rating: 5
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Friday Overview

August 13, 2010
The US dollar is consolidating this week’s gains in choppy activity. Stronger than expected euro zone GDP (1.0% quarter-over-quarter) failed to lift the euro as much as one might have expected. It appears the market quickly realizes this is as good as it gets. Heightened tensions remain evident in the European debt markets and this may also be hel…
Friday Overview Friday Overview Reviewed by Marc Chandler on August 13, 2010 Rating: 5
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Wheat and Currencies

August 12, 2010
Wheat is trading higher today, positioning to snap a 4-day profit-taking decline. The US Dept of Agriculture provided updated its forecasts for grain production. It now forecasts a global harvest for year than began June 1 at 645.7 mln metric tons, down from 661.1 mln metric ton forecast last year and 680 mln metric tons in the year that just ende…
Wheat and Currencies Wheat and Currencies Reviewed by Marc Chandler on August 12, 2010 Rating: 5
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Tensions with China Rising

August 12, 2010
The dollar-yuan was fixed today at CNY6.8015 today. It closed yesterday near CNY6.7750 and was fixed yesterday at CNY6.7768. The greenback's broad rally yesterday contributed to the sharply higher fix today. Subsequently, the dollar eased to almost CNY6.78, generating one of the largest intra-day swings in recent weeks.
News earlier this week …
Tensions with China Rising Tensions with China Rising Reviewed by Marc Chandler on August 12, 2010 Rating: 5
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Euro Bears Advance, Yen Bulls Steady

August 12, 2010
The news stream from Europe has soured and this has overshadowed the FOMC decision to recycle the Agency and MBS maturing issues into the Treasury market. This still seems very benign in the sense that it is simply maintaining the size of its current balance sheet. The decline in inflation and inflation would suggest under some Taylor-rule-like ap…
Euro Bears Advance, Yen Bulls Steady Euro Bears Advance, Yen Bulls Steady Reviewed by Marc Chandler on August 12, 2010 Rating: 5
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Capital Markets Overview THursday

August 12, 2010
The US dollar is mostly firmer today after yesterday’s surge. After yesterday’s gains were briefly and marginally extended in early Asian trading, a consolidative/corrective attempt was made that was extended into early European activity, when the euro reached just above $1.2930 and sterling made two attempts runs above $1.57.
However, a poor news…
Capital Markets Overview THursday Capital Markets Overview THursday Reviewed by Marc Chandler on August 12, 2010 Rating: 5
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CNBC: Dollar Rallies on China Data CNBC: Dollar Rallies on China Data Reviewed by magonomics on August 11, 2010 Rating: 5
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More Thoughts about the FOMC and ECB

August 11, 2010
When the FOMC first indicated it was going to expand its balance sheet by buying Treasuries, Agencies and MBS, it explained that its goal was to improve the conditions the credit markets. Observers and investors may call it QE, but to Fed officials it was credit easing.
The Fed's decision to recycle the proceeds of its maturing MBS and Agencie…
More Thoughts about the FOMC and ECB More Thoughts about the FOMC and ECB Reviewed by Marc Chandler on August 11, 2010 Rating: 5
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Latam Update: ABC--Argentina, Brazil, Chile

August 11, 2010
Fears that the global recovery is faltering is unlikely to prevent Chile's central bank from hiking rates tomorrow. It had hiked rates last month and the data since has been strong and economists have generally revised higher growth forecasts and Chile's finance minister recognized this last week. The market expects a 50 bp rate hike to 2.…
Latam Update: ABC--Argentina, Brazil, Chile Latam Update: ABC--Argentina, Brazil, Chile Reviewed by Marc Chandler on August 11, 2010 Rating: 5
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Macros In Focus

August 11, 2010
Over the past week, US assets have outperformed the others in G10. The dollar has risen against all the major currencies, except the Japanese yen. The US 10-year yield has fallen 23 bp compared with 13 bp decline in German and UK 10-year yields and a 1 bp increase in the 10-year JGB yield. The US S&P 500 had generally outperformed going into t…
Macros In Focus Macros In Focus Reviewed by Marc Chandler on August 11, 2010 Rating: 5
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New Global Growth Concerns Ignite the Dollar

August 11, 2010
The US dollar has fully recouped and more so the losses inflicted in the immediate aftermath of the FOMC’s decision to recycle the MBS and Agency bond holding proceeds backing into Treasuries. Its somewhat more gloomy outlook has been followed by a disappointing machinery order data from Japan and softer data from China has heightened growth conce…
New Global Growth Concerns Ignite the Dollar New Global Growth Concerns Ignite the Dollar Reviewed by Marc Chandler on August 11, 2010 Rating: 5
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FOMC Recycles MBS into Treasuries, Dollar Hit

August 10, 2010
The FOMC voted to reinvest the maturing Agency and MBS securities into Treasuries, which is the type of asset purchases that some had been looking for. We had thought the Fed would refrain, but did not see it as having a major impact on yields or the economy. The dollar saw its earlier gains pared and the stock market recouped some of its earlier …
FOMC Recycles MBS into Treasuries, Dollar Hit FOMC Recycles MBS into Treasuries, Dollar Hit Reviewed by Marc Chandler on August 10, 2010 Rating: 5
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Dollar Resilience Continues

August 10, 2010
One of the developments we anticipated that would be an early signal that may be poised for a reversal was in how the market responded to poor US economic data. If it sells off, it meant that the market had not fully taken on board the slowdown.
There was no follow through selling of the greenback after the knee jerk reaction to the disappointing …
Dollar Resilience Continues Dollar Resilience Continues Reviewed by Marc Chandler on August 10, 2010 Rating: 5
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Latam Currencies Softening in the Wake of USD Recovery

August 10, 2010
The US dollar's recovery against the major currencies is corresponding with its recovery against emerging markets and the Latam currency performance is consistent with this . Both the Brazilian real and Mexican peso are about 0.5% lower in the early going.
The dollar had been flirting with the BRL1.75 support yesterday and is now testing offer…
Latam Currencies Softening in the Wake of USD Recovery Latam Currencies Softening in the Wake of USD Recovery Reviewed by Marc Chandler on August 10, 2010 Rating: 5
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Foreign Exchange Forces

August 10, 2010
The focus in North America today will be the FOMC meeting. Since the end of last week, there has been some re-thinking about the outcome of today’s meeting. In particular, many Fed-watchers are playing down the likelihood that the Fed renews its asset purchases. It was one of three steps that Fed chief Bernanke suggested (in late July) as possible…
Foreign Exchange Forces Foreign Exchange Forces Reviewed by Marc Chandler on August 10, 2010 Rating: 5
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Quick Snapshot

August 10, 2010
The US dollar is trading with a firmer bias across the board. The main driver appears to be a reassessment of the likely outcome of today’s FOMC meeting as many Fed-watchers play down the likelihood of renewed asset purchases and this has been sufficient to force some weak shorts (dollars) to cover. In addition, a disappointing French industrial o…
Quick Snapshot Quick Snapshot Reviewed by Marc Chandler on August 10, 2010 Rating: 5
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Swedish Krona Still in Play

August 09, 2010
The Swedish krona remains a market darling. Over the past 3-months it neck-to-neck with sterling as the strongest G10 currency, up about 7.75% against the dollar and about 4% against the euro.
It has strong macro-economic fundamentals. The preliminary estimate of Q2 GDP was reported in late July at 3.7% (year-over-year) after a 3% reading in Q1. W…
Swedish Krona Still in Play Swedish Krona Still in Play Reviewed by Marc Chandler on August 09, 2010 Rating: 5
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Asian EM Currency Update

August 09, 2010
The US dollar is consolidating its post jobs loss against the major currencies, but it softened against most of the Asian currencies. The notable exceptions were the Singapore dollar and Philippine peso, both of which slipped ever so slightly. most of the Asian currencies. The notable exceptions were the Singapore dollar and Philippine peso, both …
Asian EM Currency Update Asian EM Currency Update Reviewed by Marc Chandler on August 09, 2010 Rating: 5
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Fed Outlook, BOJ and China

August 09, 2010
The key event of the week is the FOMC meeting.
While no change in rates is expected, speculation has focused on two other elements. The first is a downgrade of its economic assessment. This seems eminently reasonable given the data stream and recent comments by Fed officials. The second is renewing asset purchases and here the focus has been on ta…
Fed Outlook, BOJ and China Fed Outlook, BOJ and China Reviewed by Marc Chandler on August 09, 2010 Rating: 5
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FX Quiet on Monday in August

August 09, 2010
The US dollar is trading quietly within the ranges seen before the weekend ahead of tomorrow’s FOMC meeting. The BOJ concludes its meeting tomorrow, but the speculation has tended to focus on renewed asset purchases by the Federal Reserve, especially in the aftermath of the disappointing July employment figures.
The euro has been confined to less …
FX Quiet on Monday in August FX Quiet on Monday in August Reviewed by Marc Chandler on August 09, 2010 Rating: 5
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CNBC: Trading Block CNBC: Trading Block Reviewed by magonomics on August 06, 2010 Rating: 5
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Post-Jobs Data Thoughts--Vulnerabilities Abound

August 06, 2010
There is no doubt that the US jobs data is disappointing. The debate among the talking heads is the degree of the disappointment.
One of the key themes we have been hammering is that the shift in the incentive structure of interest rate differentials has swung against the dollar. We have focused on Euribor and the 2-year US-German differential. In…
Post-Jobs Data Thoughts--Vulnerabilities Abound Post-Jobs Data Thoughts--Vulnerabilities Abound Reviewed by Marc Chandler on August 06, 2010 Rating: 5
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Jobs Data: Headlines Poor Details a Bit Better

August 06, 2010
Private sector pay roles gained a disappointing 71k and the June figure was revised lower. The headline lost 131k and here too downward revisions in prior months. The work week increased and hourly earnings ticked up. Manufacturing, education and health services grew jobs. The service sector lost jobs for the second consecutive month and construct…
Jobs Data: Headlines Poor Details a Bit Better Jobs Data: Headlines Poor Details a Bit Better Reviewed by Marc Chandler on August 06, 2010 Rating: 5
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US Jobs Data, Soft European Data Featured

August 06, 2010
Today’s US jobs data is only focus ahead of the weekend. The data that economists use to help forecast this volatile series, like the ISM reports, Challenger survey, and the ADP report were generally supportive. The one important offset was the weekly initial jobless claims rose during the survey week.
As is often the case, it seems likely the rea…
US Jobs Data, Soft European Data Featured US Jobs Data, Soft European Data Featured Reviewed by Marc Chandler on August 06, 2010 Rating: 5
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Dollar Firmer After Soft Foreign Data

August 06, 2010
The US dollar is a bit better bid today ahead of the July jobs data, which apparently many believe is key to whether the Fed resumes its asset purchases next week. Softer than expected UK industrial output data and some last minute position squaring appears to be the main driver of the price action, which may be best characterized as a consolidati…
Dollar Firmer After Soft Foreign Data Dollar Firmer After Soft Foreign Data Reviewed by Marc Chandler on August 06, 2010 Rating: 5
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Russia Grain Export Ban may Help CAD

August 05, 2010
Due to a horrible drought, Russia has announced it is banning grain exports form mid-Aug to the end of the year. A state of emergency has been declared in many crop growing regions. The most important grain is wheat and the price of wheat is jumping to 2-year highs. The government has cut its crop forecast to 70 mln metric tons. The crop ws around…
Russia Grain Export Ban may Help CAD Russia Grain Export Ban may Help CAD Reviewed by Marc Chandler on August 05, 2010 Rating: 5
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SNB and QE Implications

August 05, 2010
The Federal Reserve and the Bank of England have not purchased assets since Q1. The ECB has purchased covered bonds and sovereign bonds in the secondary market. The BOJ has continued its monthly purchases of JGBs in its rinban operations. The Swiss National Bank was arguably the most aggressive and it continued to buy foreign bonds and sell the S…
SNB and QE Implications SNB and QE Implications Reviewed by Marc Chandler on August 05, 2010 Rating: 5
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News Stream and Price Action Illustrates Themes

August 05, 2010
Today’s developments and price action illustrate several of the important themes in the foreign exchange market. The news stream from the euro zone has improved from the dark days in Q2. Spain, for example, easily raised the 3.5 bln euros it was looking for at a yield around 100 basis points lower than it paid that the previous auction in June (20…
News Stream and Price Action Illustrates Themes News Stream and Price Action Illustrates Themes Reviewed by Marc Chandler on August 05, 2010 Rating: 5
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Thumbnail Sketch Capital Market

August 05, 2010
The US dollar is seeing gains over the past 24-hours pared. No single event appears to be the trigger, though a successful Spanish bond auction and indications that Greece will receive the second 9 bln euro aid tranche from the IMF/EU may have helped spark the euro’s bounce from near $1.3120. The Swiss franc is actually leading the move in the maj…
Thumbnail Sketch Capital Market Thumbnail Sketch Capital Market Reviewed by Marc Chandler on August 05, 2010 Rating: 5
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ISM and ADP Better than EXpected, but Can It Really Help the Dollar?

August 04, 2010
The non-manufacturing ISM surprised to the upside, actually improving over June and this follows on the heels of a somewhat better than expected ADP report. The dollar is finding support in response.
The ISM headline was 54.3 up from 53.8. The consensus had looked for a decline. Of note, the forward looking orders index jumped to 56.7 from 54.4. T…
ISM and ADP Better than EXpected, but Can It Really Help the Dollar? ISM and ADP Better than EXpected, but Can It Really Help the Dollar? Reviewed by Marc Chandler on August 04, 2010 Rating: 5
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Bloom off the Brazilian Rose

August 04, 2010
Latin American currencies continue to perform well despite the recent string of disappointing US economic data. There is only one Asian currency that has out performed the Mexican peso for example over the past month (the Korean won is up 5.1% while the peso is up 4.3%). Brazil on the other hand has appreciated 1%, which is less than most of emerg…
Bloom off the Brazilian Rose Bloom off the Brazilian Rose Reviewed by Marc Chandler on August 04, 2010 Rating: 5
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UK, Euro Zone, Rate Differentials and Asia

August 04, 2010
Sterling’s nine-day advance has been placed in jeopardy today by the weakest service sector PMI in over a year. The 53.1 headline reading is the lowest in 13-months and contrasts with the 54.4 reading in June and expectations for a decline to around 54.0. Business expectations did rise, but CIPS noted that cancelled contracts and fewer business en…
UK, Euro Zone, Rate Differentials and Asia UK, Euro Zone, Rate Differentials and Asia Reviewed by Marc Chandler on August 04, 2010 Rating: 5
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Capital Markets Overview Tuesday

August 04, 2010
The US dollar is sporting a somewhat firmer profile against most of the major currencies, with the exception being the Japanese yen, against which the greenback has fallen to new 8-month lows. This has brought it within striking distance of the JPY85 level, which has been suggested as a pain threshold for Japanese officials.
Modest profit-taking, …
Capital Markets Overview Tuesday Capital Markets Overview Tuesday Reviewed by Marc Chandler on August 04, 2010 Rating: 5
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Currency Thoughts in Late NY Afternoon

August 03, 2010
The major currencies traded choppily in the NY session today, largely within the ranges establishing in Europe. Of note today, the US economic reports warn of the risk of a downward revision to Q2 GDP and probably softer retail sales than had been expected. It helps serve to keep the speculation a renewed QE by the Fed alive.
The BEA had assumed t…
Currency Thoughts in Late NY Afternoon Currency Thoughts in Late NY Afternoon Reviewed by Marc Chandler on August 03, 2010 Rating: 5
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Yen in Play

August 03, 2010
The Japanese yen remains firm even as the other major currencies see their early gains pared. Many players have their sights set on the multi-year low set last Nov near JPY84.85.
There are several factors behind the yen's rise. Many will talk about the concerns about the world economic outlook. Others will emphasize the narrowing of interest r…
Yen in Play Yen in Play Reviewed by Marc Chandler on August 03, 2010 Rating: 5
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Pressure for Rate Hike Builds in Indonesia, but No Move Yet

August 03, 2010
The central bank of Indonesia meets tomorrow and although pressure is building for a rate hike, officials still appear willing to resist for a bit longer.
The economy is growing robustly and Q2 GDP will be out early Thurs local time and is expected to show a 6% annualized expansion, the fastest in a couple of years. At the same time inflation is f…
Pressure for Rate Hike Builds in Indonesia, but No Move Yet Pressure for Rate Hike Builds in Indonesia, but No Move Yet Reviewed by Marc Chandler on August 03, 2010 Rating: 5
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Five Factors Impacting Position Adjustment

August 03, 2010
The main feature of the foreign exchange market remains the relentless pressure on the US dollar.
There are several forces at work and seem to reflect both short-covering and outright longs. The net speculative position at the IMM futures remains short euros and sterling. The euro’s net short position has been cut dramatically from a record 114k c…
Five Factors Impacting Position Adjustment Five Factors Impacting Position Adjustment Reviewed by Marc Chandler on August 03, 2010 Rating: 5
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Global Market Overview

August 03, 2010
The US dollar remains under pressure today as low US interest rates, speculation that the Fed may be edging toward renewed asset purchases, and generally poor sentiment, continues to take a toll.
There are exceptions, notably within the dollar-bloc, where consolidation is more the rule. Softer than expected retail sales and building permits data a…
Global Market Overview Global Market Overview Reviewed by Marc Chandler on August 03, 2010 Rating: 5
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Data and RBA Meeting--Not Much for Aussie Bulls

August 02, 2010
The Australian dollar has been on a tear. It was the strongest of the G10 currencies over the past month, appreciated 8.6% against the greenback, nearly a third more than the New Zealand dollar and more than twice the performance of the Canadian dollar.
A great deal of good news has been discounted. The non-commercials at the IMM have recognized t…
Data and RBA Meeting--Not Much for Aussie Bulls Data and RBA Meeting--Not Much for Aussie Bulls Reviewed by Marc Chandler on August 02, 2010 Rating: 5
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Bernanke Somber, but Seems Cautiously Optimistic

August 02, 2010
Fed chief Bernanke is speaking on the economy to a a gathering of southern state governments. Given Bullard's concerns about deflation expressed last week, Bernanke's comments were anxiously awaited. They do not seem as worrisome as many had expected. He does not address monetary policy per se, but does seem to hold out the possibility tha…
Bernanke Somber, but Seems Cautiously Optimistic Bernanke Somber, but Seems Cautiously Optimistic Reviewed by Marc Chandler on August 02, 2010 Rating: 5
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More Tightening To Underpin Rupee

August 02, 2010
The central bank of India tightened policy last week by raising the reverse repo rate 25 bp to 5.75%. It is the fourth tightening move in five months and more tightening is likely in the coming period.
The central bank raised its 2010 GDP forecast to 8.5% from 8% last weekand lilfted its inflation forecast to 6% from 5.5%. The strength of the econ…
More Tightening To Underpin Rupee More Tightening To Underpin Rupee Reviewed by Marc Chandler on August 02, 2010 Rating: 5
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Capital Market Developments on Monday

August 02, 2010
One of the key fundamental developments that have helped spur the downside correction in the US dollar in recent weeks has been the divergence of economic data between the US and Europe. This trend is continuing and the contrast is clear with today’s purchasing managers’ surveys.
The euro zone reading of 56.7 was a little above the flash reading o…
Capital Market Developments on Monday Capital Market Developments on Monday Reviewed by Marc Chandler on August 02, 2010 Rating: 5
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New Month Same Forces

August 02, 2010
The US dollar is broadly mixed. Poor sentiment toward the greenback, following last week’s soft Beige Book, talk of the potential need for quantitative ease by a Fed official often seen as a hawk, soft Q2 GDP figures, coupled today with fairly positive European PMI readings have conspired to keep the pressure on the dollar in general. The dollar, …
New Month Same Forces New Month Same Forces Reviewed by Marc Chandler on August 02, 2010 Rating: 5
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