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FT Feature Video: Marc Chandler bets on Euro Survival FT Feature Video: Marc Chandler bets on Euro Survival Reviewed by magonomics on November 30, 2011 Rating: 5
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Official Action and Why Italy is Still at the Vortex

November 30, 2011
The focus is on next week's ECB meeting and the EU summit. Nearly every one is expecting a 25 bp rate cut and if expectations are wrong, it is more likely that it is because of more aggressive action, like a 50 bp cut, than less. Separately, it will also likely provide long-term refi operations. It currently has a 1 year repo outstanding and n…
Official Action and Why Italy is Still at the Vortex Official Action and Why Italy is Still at the Vortex Reviewed by Marc Chandler on November 30, 2011 Rating: 5
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Choppy Market: Push Me Pull You

November 30, 2011
There have been several developments and they have imparted conflicting impulses into the market.  The S&P downgrade of a number of large banks based on a new methodology that has been unfolding over the past couple of years comes at a poor time, when many banks, especially in Europe, are having funding problems and different measures of finan…
Choppy Market: Push Me Pull You Choppy Market: Push Me Pull You Reviewed by Marc Chandler on November 30, 2011 Rating: 5
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EuroGroup Meeting Day One

November 29, 2011
The first day of the eurogroup (European finance ministers) meeting results in two decisions.  The first is the approval to the next tranche of Greek aid.  It is about 5.8 bln euros.  This is the sixth disbursement and there is no reason to think that next year's disbursements won't be the same nail-biting exercise as this year's have …
EuroGroup Meeting Day One EuroGroup Meeting Day One Reviewed by Marc Chandler on November 29, 2011 Rating: 5
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CNBC: EFSF Bailout and the Euro CNBC: EFSF Bailout and the Euro Reviewed by magonomics on November 29, 2011 Rating: 5
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CNBC: QE3 and Europe in 3 Minutes CNBC: QE3 and Europe in 3 Minutes Reviewed by Marc Chandler on November 29, 2011 Rating: 5
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More Thoughts on End Game Scenarios

November 29, 2011
The euro zone finance ministers meet today and tomorrow. Approval of the next tranche of aid to Greece and an agreement on EFSF leveraging is sought. Yet the real deal is still a week away and that is the EU summit.
A year ago, we handicapped the likely end games to the European debt crisis. We attributed a 3% chance of a country leaving the union.…
More Thoughts on End Game Scenarios More Thoughts on End Game Scenarios Reviewed by Marc Chandler on November 29, 2011 Rating: 5
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Dollar Heavier as Position Squaring Dominates

November 29, 2011
After rallying in Europe yesterday, as weekend developments encouraged risk appetites, the euro and sterling retreated in North America.  That pullback went about as deep as possible without negating my expectation of corrective forces at the start of the week.  Despite more poor rating news and talk, those corrective forces remain intact today.��…
Dollar Heavier as Position Squaring Dominates Dollar Heavier as Position Squaring Dominates Reviewed by Marc Chandler on November 29, 2011 Rating: 5
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Risk Assets Jump, Smell Something, See Nothing

November 28, 2011
Equities, most foreign currencies and commodities have rallied.  It is not as if there has been a great deal of clarity over the weekend.  There have been a number of press reports that have been suggestive, but some, like the report that the IMF was preparing a massive loan program to Italy, has been denied. 
Hopes that the Tue-Wed Eurogroup meeti…
Risk Assets Jump, Smell Something, See Nothing Risk Assets Jump, Smell Something, See Nothing Reviewed by Marc Chandler on November 28, 2011 Rating: 5
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Weekend Developments and Their Significance Going Forward

November 27, 2011
There have been several important developments over the weekend which are likely to support the euro at the start of the week, after falling for the past four consecutive weeks and recording a 7-week low before the weekend. However, I continue to expect corrective gains in the euro will be short-lived and subject to headline risks. I still think t…
Weekend Developments and Their Significance Going Forward Weekend Developments and Their Significance Going Forward Reviewed by Marc Chandler on November 27, 2011 Rating: 5
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Euro Pressures Mount--Necessary for Eventual Resolution

November 25, 2011
Personal challenges may help one overcome certain modes of thought and behavior.  So too,  a crisis allow officials to transcend ideological constraints.  First principles and sacred cows can get sacrificed if political necessity is strong enough.  
Those that call for the ECB to substantially increase its sovereign bond purchases, or for Germany t…
Euro Pressures Mount--Necessary for Eventual Resolution Euro Pressures Mount--Necessary for Eventual Resolution Reviewed by Marc Chandler on November 25, 2011 Rating: 5
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CNBC: Case for German-led Fiscal Union CNBC: Case for German-led Fiscal Union Reviewed by Marc Chandler on November 23, 2011 Rating: 5
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What the End Game in the Euro Zone may Look Like

November 23, 2011
A headline says that an investment bank survey found almost half the respondents expect at least one country to drop out of the euro zone next year. This is twice the percentage of a couple of months ago. While such a scenario cannot be ruled out, cost/benefit analysis still argues against a country leaving.
Greece is seen as the most likely c…
What the End Game in the Euro Zone may Look Like What the End Game in the Euro Zone may Look Like Reviewed by Marc Chandler on November 23, 2011 Rating: 5
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Euro Punched Lower by Series of Jabs

November 23, 2011
What was to be a subdued period in the markets is turning into a rout.  There have been a number of poor developments that have sent the US dollar broadly higher and has weighed on the highly correlated risk assets, equities, emerging market and commodities. 
The combination of Belgium apparently wanting to renegotiate the Dexia bail out and the p…
Euro Punched Lower by Series of Jabs Euro Punched Lower by Series of Jabs Reviewed by Marc Chandler on November 23, 2011 Rating: 5
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IMF is Lender of Last Resort to Sovereigns

November 22, 2011
Many observers are confused.  They cry for the ECB to "man up" and "do what it is supposed to do" and be the lender of last resort.  It does have that function for banks, not for sovereigns.  The lender of last resort to sovereigns in the IMF. 
The IMF has been grasping for new facilities to address the current crisis.  Today i…
IMF is Lender of Last Resort to Sovereigns IMF is Lender of Last Resort to Sovereigns Reviewed by Marc Chandler on November 22, 2011 Rating: 5
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India Update: INR Slumps, Policy Response Looming

November 22, 2011
As the dollar is in uncharted water against the INR, it is difficult to have much confidence technical levels of support or resistance. Talk of a new range for the dollar between INR54-INR56 seems reasonable, but the RBI may want to try to push the INR higher, breaking the one-way market and allowing corporations an change to adjust. Key dollar su…
India Update: INR Slumps, Policy Response Looming India Update: INR Slumps, Policy Response Looming Reviewed by Marc Chandler on November 22, 2011 Rating: 5
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ECB: Funding, Collateral, Outlook

November 22, 2011
In addition to data showing a broadening and deepening of the downturn and continued stress in the money markets, the ECB will also have new staff forecasts, which will likely acknowledge the slower growth and the inflation implications of the economic outlook. A particularly soft PMI data will encourage rate cut expectations. Looking further out,…
ECB: Funding, Collateral, Outlook ECB: Funding, Collateral, Outlook Reviewed by Marc Chandler on November 22, 2011 Rating: 5
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Dollar Softer Amid Consolidation

November 22, 2011
The US dollar is trading with a softer bias in what largely appears to be a consolidation.  The euro held support near $1.34, sterling near $1.56 and Aussie near $0.9800.  The news stream is light and corrective forces are seen in equities, which are mostly higher, and bond markets, which are mostly lower.  Emerging market currencies are also gen…
Dollar Softer Amid Consolidation Dollar Softer Amid Consolidation Reviewed by Marc Chandler on November 22, 2011 Rating: 5
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The Four Key Issues that are Dividing Europe

November 21, 2011
The ECB settled the purchase of almost 8 bln euros of sovereign bonds in the past week. This is a noticeable increase from the almost 4.5 bln euros settled in the prior week and it has managed to push Italian bond yields back below 7%. Nevertheless, funding pressure (the cost of swapping from euros to dollars, for example) remains elevated and the…
The Four Key Issues that are Dividing Europe The Four Key Issues that are Dividing Europe Reviewed by Marc Chandler on November 21, 2011 Rating: 5
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Dollar Bid as European Woes Dominate

November 21, 2011
News that the US super committee failed to reach an agreement has done little to eclipse the negative impulses coming from Europe.   Rajoy won no honeymoon in Spain despite achieving an outright majority in parliament.  Spain's 10-year bond yield is up around 15 bp today, the worst performer in the euro zone.  Moody's warned that rising de…
Dollar Bid as European Woes Dominate Dollar Bid as European Woes Dominate Reviewed by Marc Chandler on November 21, 2011 Rating: 5
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Fifth New Government in Periphery and Thoughts to Start Week

November 20, 2011
Spain is the latest euro zone country to change governments. Since the debt crisis materialized, Ireland, Portugal, Greece, Italy have new leaders. The exact vote is not clear and does not really matter for international investors. The important take away is that as expected the Popular Party (PP) won a clear absolute majority.
Rajoy, the new prim…
Fifth New Government in Periphery and Thoughts to Start Week Fifth New Government in Periphery and Thoughts to Start Week Reviewed by Marc Chandler on November 20, 2011 Rating: 5
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Yen Strength: FX Forensics

November 16, 2011
Japan's economy has recovered after three consecutive quarters of contraction.  The recovery is sharp but is likely to be short-lived with much of the pent up demand satiated and new disruptions in the form of the floods in Thailand and the fragility of the world economy. 
The yen and the Swiss franc were seen as safe haven currencies during th…
Yen Strength: FX Forensics Yen Strength: FX Forensics Reviewed by Marc Chandler on November 16, 2011 Rating: 5
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Austerity or Not: Spain is the Next Shoe to Drop Austerity or Not: Spain is the Next Shoe to Drop Reviewed by magonomics on November 16, 2011 Rating: 5
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ECB and Fed Action: Forget About It

November 16, 2011
Some press reports are linking the recovery in the euro to comments from Boston's Fed Rosengren who seemed to suggest that an intensification of the debt crisis could prompt a joint response by both the Federal Reserve and the ECB.   Immediately people thought about intervention and/or coordinated easing. Don't hold your breath for it. 
Ro…
ECB and Fed Action: Forget About It ECB and Fed Action: Forget About It Reviewed by Marc Chandler on November 16, 2011 Rating: 5
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Interview: Euro Remains Resilient in Face of EU Debt Fears Interview: Euro Remains Resilient in Face of EU Debt Fears Reviewed by magonomics on November 16, 2011 Rating: 5
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Yahoo Finance: Euro Remains Resilient in Face of EU Debt Fears Yahoo Finance: Euro Remains Resilient in Face of EU Debt Fears Reviewed by magonomics on November 16, 2011 Rating: 5
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Spain: Another Pain

November 16, 2011
Pressure is mounting on Spain. The 10-year yield today is essentially back to where it was when the ECB broadened its sovereign bond purchase scheme to include Spanish and Italian bonds. On Oct 27, the 10-year yield was near 5.33%. Today it is 100 bp higher. This is not a very conducive environment for tomorrow's new benchmark offering (up to …
Spain: Another Pain Spain: Another Pain Reviewed by Marc Chandler on November 16, 2011 Rating: 5
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Roller Coaster Foreign Exchange Market, but Ride the Dollar

November 16, 2011
After falling in Asia to new lows since October 10, the euro rallied in  Europe, briefly turned positive on the day, before coming off hard.  The short squeeze higher seemed to be largely based on what will likely be proven untrue.  There were reports and speculation that the ECB would agreed to defend certain interest rate spreads for the periphe…
Roller Coaster Foreign Exchange Market, but Ride the Dollar Roller Coaster Foreign Exchange Market, but Ride the Dollar Reviewed by Marc Chandler on November 16, 2011 Rating: 5
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Meeting Capital Requirements in Europe and the Euro

November 15, 2011
There are a number of ways that European banks are moving to boost their Tier 1 capital and strengthen their balance sheets.
One tactic that is more evident in practice than in observation is adjusting the risk weighted optimization models of the projected capital need (~13.6 bln euros) by adjusting their models.
Meeting Capital Requirements in Europe and the Euro Meeting Capital Requirements in Europe and the Euro Reviewed by Marc Chandler on November 15, 2011 Rating: 5
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Political Theatre Intermission, Economic Drama Returns

November 15, 2011
The political theatre in Europe in recent weeks was a distraction.  With it easing as new governments come to the fore in Greece and Italy, investors can return to the economic drivers.   Investors appear to be focused on the vacuum and how the ECB is the only institution that can immediately address the situation, but is reluctant to do so.   It …
Political Theatre Intermission, Economic Drama Returns Political Theatre Intermission, Economic Drama Returns Reviewed by Marc Chandler on November 15, 2011 Rating: 5
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Five Uncommon Observations about Europe

November 14, 2011
The escalation of the European debt crisis and mounting evidence of new economic contraction have increased the scrutiny on the region. Yet it seems like many observers may be failing to grasp several important points, including the nature of the new governments, the Italian challenge, pressure on the ECB, risks of a euro zone break up and the com…
Five Uncommon Observations about Europe Five Uncommon Observations about Europe Reviewed by Marc Chandler on November 14, 2011 Rating: 5
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Thoughts on the Data in the Week Ahead and the Foreign Exchange Market

November 13, 2011
Economic data has been of tertiary concern to the market recently, overwhelmed by the drama in Europe. Given that the drama may die down, with new governments in Greece and Italy, the economic data may become somewhat more important.
U.S. The US production and consumption data are likely to confirm that the economic momentum from Q3 is carrying ov…
Thoughts on the Data in the Week Ahead and the Foreign Exchange Market Thoughts on the Data in the Week Ahead and the Foreign Exchange Market Reviewed by Marc Chandler on November 13, 2011 Rating: 5
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Week that Began with a Bang Ends with a Whimper

November 11, 2011
The foreign exchange is calmer and narrower ranges have prevailed. The political uncertainty appears gradually easing. A new Greek technocrat government is taking office in Greece and Italy's Senate will vote on the austerity measures and the Chamber of Deputies will vote on them over the weekend. This will pace the way for a technocrat govern…
Week that Began with a Bang Ends with a Whimper Week that Began with a Bang Ends with a Whimper Reviewed by Marc Chandler on November 11, 2011 Rating: 5
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CNBC: Apple, The Euro, & Bernanke CNBC: Apple, The Euro, & Bernanke Reviewed by magonomics on November 10, 2011 Rating: 5
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Euro Zone: Size Matters

November 10, 2011
The German Christian Democrats hold a party congress next weekend. There are a number of proposals that members are trying to get incorporate into the party position and platform. Many observers seem to be exaggerating the significance of some of the proposals that have been reported in the press.
One such proposal is to give the national central …
Euro Zone: Size Matters Euro Zone: Size Matters Reviewed by Marc Chandler on November 10, 2011 Rating: 5
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ECB Tries to Put the Genie Back in the Bottle

November 10, 2011
The sun has risen today and Italy is still there and so is Europe and monetary union, despite concerns about a point of no return being passed or some Rubicon has been crossed.  The combination of an acceptable Italian T-bill auction and apparently stepped up ECB buying has seen the Italian debt market recover some of yesterday's drubbing.   T…
ECB Tries to Put the Genie Back in the Bottle ECB Tries to Put the Genie Back in the Bottle Reviewed by Marc Chandler on November 10, 2011 Rating: 5
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Is Greece Italy's Future?

November 09, 2011
This seems to be the question on nearly every one's mind today, with Italian 10-year yields rocketing through the 7% threshold and a vicious cycle of rising yields, triggering more sales, leading to margin increases, spurring more sales. Does Italy now need to go to the EU and IMF with hat in hand?
Italian mythology borrowed much from ancient G…
Is Greece Italy's Future? Is Greece Italy's Future? Reviewed by Marc Chandler on November 09, 2011 Rating: 5
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Rome Burns

November 09, 2011
There is one overarching story today and it is Italy.  Berlusconi's resignation reveals political fragility of the euro zone''s third largest economy.  Lost on many observers is the fact that the Berlusconi phenomenon is just a much an effect as cause of the political paralysis.  As Italian yields move into panic zone, with the 10-year…
Rome Burns Rome Burns Reviewed by Marc Chandler on November 09, 2011 Rating: 5
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Thai Floods and Yen Appreciation

November 08, 2011
The dollar has slipped to almost JPY77.50, the lowest since the massive intervention last week. At today's lows, the dollar has given back almost 50% of what the intervention had achieved. It is still mind boggling the magnitude of the intervention. In one fell swoop the BOJ accounted for about 20% of the average daily yen turnover. In one fel…
Thai Floods and Yen Appreciation Thai Floods and Yen Appreciation Reviewed by Marc Chandler on November 08, 2011 Rating: 5
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Choppy Calm Ahead of Potential Storm

November 08, 2011
The major foreign currenices are little changed against the US dollar as the North American session begins.  The Italian vote (9:30 EDT/14:30 GMT) is the key event and news that Berlusconi's ally/rival Bossi, head of the Northern League, called for the PM's resignation increases the probability that the government falls.  Meanwhile the new…
Choppy Calm Ahead of Potential Storm Choppy Calm Ahead of Potential Storm Reviewed by Marc Chandler on November 08, 2011 Rating: 5
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Italy's Political Drama: Tuesday Climax?

November 07, 2011
The Italian Chamber of Deputies will vote on a minor formality regarding last year's budget report on Tuesday around 14:30 GMT (9:30 EDT), but it holds within it the potential to topple the second euro zone prime minister in less than a week.  
Greek Prime Minister Papandreou has stopped down in favor of a national unity government which has ye…
Italy's Political Drama: Tuesday Climax? Italy's Political Drama: Tuesday Climax? Reviewed by Marc Chandler on November 07, 2011 Rating: 5
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Italy Takes Limelight from Greece

November 07, 2011
With Greece moving to a political solution, Italy is moving to center stage.  A national unity government in Greece, with former ECB vice president Papademos seen as slightly more likely than current finance minister Venizelos.  The national unity government will likely secure the 180 super majority vote to approve the late Oct agreement with Euro…
Italy Takes Limelight from Greece Italy Takes Limelight from Greece Reviewed by Marc Chandler on November 07, 2011 Rating: 5
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What Europe Can Learn from the NY Mets, Eurocrat Occupation and Other Observations What Europe Can Learn from the NY Mets, Eurocrat Occupation and Other Observations Reviewed by Marc Chandler on November 06, 2011 Rating: 5
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Watch Switzerland on Monday

November 04, 2011
Switzerland reports its October consumer prices on Monday. This could be important. The Swiss National Bank's decision to cap the franc took place on the same day that the August CPI was reported (Sept 6). It showed a 0.3% month-over-month decline after a 0.8% decline in July. There are many observers who expect the SNB to lower its cap for th…
Watch Switzerland on Monday Watch Switzerland on Monday Reviewed by Marc Chandler on November 04, 2011 Rating: 5
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Friday Thoughts

November 04, 2011
The diverging economic data between Europe and the US was underscored in recent days.  The US economy expanded 2.5% at annualized rate in Q3 and early indications for Q4, including ISM, regional surveys, strongest auto sales in eight months, and the employment data, are constructive.  To be sure, the data does not point to spectacular growth.  In …
Friday Thoughts Friday Thoughts Reviewed by Marc Chandler on November 04, 2011 Rating: 5
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The Draw Down of the Fed's Custody Holdings Ends

November 03, 2011
The Federal Reserve reports its custody holdings for foreign central banks on a weekly average basis and on a Wednesday-to-Wednesday basis.  The data is reported every Thursday.  In this space I have been tracking a sustained decline in these holdings in recent weeks.   It now looks like the trend is over.   
On a weekly average basis, custody hold…
The Draw Down of the Fed's Custody Holdings Ends The Draw Down of the Fed's Custody Holdings Ends Reviewed by Marc Chandler on November 03, 2011 Rating: 5
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US Jobs Report and A Look at Youth/Education/Race and Unemployment

November 03, 2011
The US monthly jobs report is among the hardest of the high frequency data for the market to forecast. There are few inputs and the inputs are there are track the general trends but frequently deviate on a month-to-month basis.
The Bloomberg consensus is for the private sector to have added 125k private sector jobs in October, this is around the 3…
US Jobs Report and A Look at Youth/Education/Race and Unemployment US Jobs Report and A Look at Youth/Education/Race and Unemployment Reviewed by Marc Chandler on November 03, 2011 Rating: 5
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ECB Surprises and Greece says 'Never Mind'

November 03, 2011
The ECB surprised the market by cutting the key rates 25 bp.  This was Draghi's first meeting.  With the euro zone economy either in a recession or quickly headed into one, which in turn will help bring inflation off the 3% area, Draghi led the ECB to reversing the rate hike delivered four months ago. Around the same time, the Greek Prime Mini…
ECB Surprises and Greece says 'Never Mind' ECB Surprises and Greece says 'Never Mind' Reviewed by Marc Chandler on November 03, 2011 Rating: 5
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The Elusiveness of Currency Diversification

November 02, 2011
One challenge investors and portfolio managers is achieving diversification. Impressionistic views gained from every day experience are confirmed by a number of academic studies. Diversification in the international capital markets is becoming increasingly difficult. Bond markets have long been highly correlated. Equity markets have become increas…
The Elusiveness of Currency Diversification The Elusiveness of Currency Diversification Reviewed by Marc Chandler on November 02, 2011 Rating: 5
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FOMC as Expected, but Only a Dove Cries

November 02, 2011
The FOMC statement contained no surprises and no change in asset purchases.
The statement recognized somewhat better growth in Q3 (better than H1).  It said growth strengthened somewhat while previously it said growth remained slow.  Weakness in the labor market continued to be noted, but despite this and the depressed housing market conditions, it…
FOMC as Expected, but Only a Dove Cries FOMC as Expected, but Only a Dove Cries Reviewed by Marc Chandler on November 02, 2011 Rating: 5
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Hump Day and Beyond

November 02, 2011
Even though a great sense of stability appears to return to the markets after the blood-letting of Monday and Tuesday, there has been fresh developments on the ground to suggest these market moves will be sustained.  The purchasing managers surveys in Europe were generally poor with the region as a whole coming in at 47.1, down from 47.3 in the fl…
Hump Day and Beyond Hump Day and Beyond Reviewed by Marc Chandler on November 02, 2011 Rating: 5
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Evolution of Fed's Economic Views--to be Updated Tomorrow

November 01, 2011
The Federal Reserve holds a two day meeting that concludes near midday tomorrow. It will likely be the first meeting in a while where there is not change in the composition or size of the balance sheet and no fresh initiatives, like cutting the rate of interest paid on excess reserves, or guidance. The tweaks in the communication are likely to be …
Evolution of Fed's Economic Views--to be Updated Tomorrow Evolution of Fed's Economic Views--to be Updated Tomorrow Reviewed by Marc Chandler on November 01, 2011 Rating: 5
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Some Thoughts on the CDS Market and Greek Developments

November 01, 2011
There is much truth to the generalization that European banks took on direct exposure to European sovereigns through the bond market, while top banks took exposure through selling insurance, primarily CDS, on the sovereigns. The latest BIS data suggest that in H1 2011, US banks increased their CDS sales by almost $81 bln to $518 bln. Two thirds ar…
Some Thoughts on the CDS Market and Greek Developments Some Thoughts on the CDS Market and Greek Developments Reviewed by Marc Chandler on November 01, 2011 Rating: 5
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Dollar Recovery Continues

November 01, 2011
News of Greece's political gambit, fallout from haircut that is not a default, and poor economic data have seen risk come off in a big way after last week's near euphoria. While the euro never recovered from the news of that Greece will call a referendum, news that China's official PMI fell to 50.4 in Oct from 51.2 in Sept, contradicti…
Dollar Recovery Continues Dollar Recovery Continues Reviewed by Marc Chandler on November 01, 2011 Rating: 5
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