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Initial Reaction to Bernanke: USD and US Assets Firm

August 31, 2012
As the draft of Fed Chairman's Bernanke speech at Jackson Hole made the rounds, the US dollar as pared back some of its earlier losses, US yields have eased and equities retraced part of the opening losses.   
However, the dollar quickly was sold and many of the major currencies have made new highs on the day, though stocks and bonds are main…
Initial Reaction to Bernanke: USD and US Assets Firm Initial Reaction to Bernanke: USD and US Assets Firm Reviewed by Marc Chandler on August 31, 2012 Rating: 5
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Dollar Heavy While Waiting for Bernanke

August 31, 2012
The US dollar is trading softly in the lead up to Fed Chairman Bernanke's speech at Jackson Hole.  The price action is still one of position adjusting.  While the euro and Swiss franc have made new multi-week highs against the dollar, sterling ad the Australian and Canadian dollars have moved through yesterday's highs only in early North …
Dollar Heavy While Waiting for Bernanke Dollar Heavy While Waiting for Bernanke Reviewed by Marc Chandler on August 31, 2012 Rating: 5
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Great Graphic: Green Monster

August 30, 2012
When you think green and wicked big in Massachusetts you probably don't think jobs. But you should. This Great Graphic comes from Green Tech Media. In the past year Clean Tech jobs in Massachusetts grew 10 times faster than the overall economy.

Great Graphic: Green Monster Great Graphic: Green Monster Reviewed by magonomics on August 30, 2012 Rating: 5
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Is this the Price Signal We have been Waiting For ?

August 30, 2012
The dollar is finding firmer footing today. It does not appear that it is in response to any fresh fundamental development.  That the Slovakian Prime Minister sees a 50/50 chance of EMU collapsing is hardly significant and matches up well with what some predictive markets see by the end of next year.   

The dollar rally began at the tail end of th…
Is this the Price Signal We have been Waiting For ? Is this the Price Signal We have been Waiting For ? Reviewed by Marc Chandler on August 30, 2012 Rating: 5
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Great Graphic: US Banks Flush with Deposits

August 28, 2012
This Great Graphic was posted on Sober Look. It shows the increase in deposits at US commercial banks.  It is based on Federal Reserve data.  These deposits are hitting a record high here in late August.  
Clearly the problem is not that US banks do not have sufficient capacity to lend.  The rise in deposits is partly a function of the increase i…
Great Graphic: US Banks Flush with Deposits Great Graphic: US Banks Flush with Deposits Reviewed by Marc Chandler on August 28, 2012 Rating: 5
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Short Note on Significance of the Price Action

August 28, 2012
The euro is leading the charge against the dollar today.  There was some talk of reserve manager interest, but the price action must largely be understood as position adjusting ahead of Bernanke's Jackson Hole speech.  News that Draghi is not going to attend the confab after all, generated much grist for the rumor mill, but substantively, we …
Short Note on Significance of the Price Action Short Note on Significance of the Price Action Reviewed by Marc Chandler on August 28, 2012 Rating: 5
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Draghi: Call Me Maybe

August 27, 2012
ECB President Draghi appears to have gotten as much as he can get with his word play.  He has been fairly successful.  The pressures that were threatening Europe via Spain and Italy in late July were reduced and summer holidays were still enjoyed by his well placed suggestive comments.  
Spanish 2-year yields fell from over 7% before Draghi to ab…
Draghi: Call Me Maybe Draghi: Call Me Maybe Reviewed by Marc Chandler on August 27, 2012 Rating: 5
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Great Graphic: CPI under Gold Standard and QE

August 27, 2012
This Great Graphic was developed created by Matthew O'Brien of The Atlantic.  It illustrates that the gold standard that some want to return to did not generate price stability in the US in the 1920s.  It also illustrates the superior record of the Federal Reserve to anchor prices under the post-bubble conditions.
This type of evidence, howeve…
Great Graphic: CPI under Gold Standard and QE Great Graphic: CPI under Gold Standard and QE Reviewed by Marc Chandler on August 27, 2012 Rating: 5
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Two Non-Starters to Begin the Week

August 26, 2012
Two ideas percolated last week.   Although widely different, they will have the same fate.  Ignoble deaths.  Yet, an understanding of their brief lives may help shed light on the current investment climate.
In the US, a draft of the Republican Party platform calls for the establishment of a commission to look into re-linking the dollar to gold.  …
Two Non-Starters to Begin the Week Two Non-Starters to Begin the Week Reviewed by Marc Chandler on August 26, 2012 Rating: 5
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Great Graphic: Big Companies Domiciled in Small Economies

August 26, 2012
This Great Graphic is from The Economist.  There are several ways to understand it.  It may suggest how some small economies can be dominated by a single company, such as Finland's Nokia and Taiwan's Hon Hai   It may also draw attention to where a company chooses to be domiciled, locate headquarters, such as Arcelor Mittal.  In part, this…
Great Graphic: Big Companies Domiciled in Small Economies Great Graphic: Big Companies Domiciled in Small Economies Reviewed by Marc Chandler on August 26, 2012 Rating: 5
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FX Technical Outlook and Futures Positioning

August 25, 2012
There are two main drivers behind the price action in the foreign exchange market and they will likely persist in the days ahead.  First, there continues to be position adjustment ahead of the what promises to be eventful few weeks.  Second, the release of the minutes from the August 1 FOMC meeting has increased the perceived odds that QE3 is laun…
FX Technical Outlook and Futures Positioning FX Technical Outlook and Futures Positioning Reviewed by Marc Chandler on August 25, 2012 Rating: 5
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Great Graphic: Thoughts about Income Distribution in the US

August 24, 2012
This Great Graphic comes from the Real-World Economics Review blog.   It is from Pew Research Center latest study.  Essentially it divides America by income into three groups.  The lower income group draws income that is less than 67% of the nation's median.  The middle income group earns income that is between 67% of the nation's median …
Great Graphic: Thoughts about Income Distribution in the US Great Graphic: Thoughts about Income Distribution in the US Reviewed by Marc Chandler on August 24, 2012 Rating: 5
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Time is Money and other Fetishes

August 23, 2012
Doesn't the idea that "time is money" capture the spirit of modernity?  Yet the Greek Prime Minister is suggesting that all Greece needs is some breathing room, given the depth of the economic contraction.  It does not need any more money, he tries to reassure.  
The Troika will not find this believable.  Press reports suggest the I…
Time is Money and other Fetishes Time is Money and other Fetishes Reviewed by Marc Chandler on August 23, 2012 Rating: 5
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Great Graphic: Labor (Im)Mobility

August 23, 2012
This Great Graphic comes from Zero Hedge, which posted this article from Azizonomics.  It provides some numbers to the well appreciated fact that the US enjoys greater labor mobility than does Europe.

While this is helpful, there are a few caveats to keep in mind.  First, mobility of state lines (US) or cross-border (Europe) is only one kind of …
Great Graphic: Labor (Im)Mobility Great Graphic: Labor (Im)Mobility Reviewed by Marc Chandler on August 23, 2012 Rating: 5
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When the Inevitable is Evitable

August 22, 2012
In recent weeks, the market had appeared to be scaling back expectations of another round of asset purchases by the Federal Reserve.   US 10-year Treasury yields rose nearly 40 bp since the August 1.  The reconsideration was spurred by a single word:  Data.

Consider what investors and policy makers have learned since the FOMC last meeting conclude…
When the Inevitable is Evitable When the Inevitable is Evitable Reviewed by Marc Chandler on August 22, 2012 Rating: 5
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Bloomberg: Weak US Retail Sales Gives Yen Advantage Bloomberg: Weak US Retail Sales Gives Yen Advantage Reviewed by magonomics on August 22, 2012 Rating: 5
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Great Graphic: Euro and Sterling Testing Key Levels

August 21, 2012
These Great Graphics are from my Bloomberg.  The one on the left is the daily bar chart of the euro.  It shows that the strong gains on August 21 have carried the single currency to its highest level since July 5 and is testing a trend line off the June 20 and June 29 highs.  The single currency finished the North American session just off its in…
Great Graphic: Euro and Sterling Testing Key Levels Great Graphic: Euro and Sterling Testing Key Levels Reviewed by Marc Chandler on August 21, 2012 Rating: 5
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Great Graphic: US Private Sector Job Growth

August 21, 2012
Here is a Great Graphic that caught our attention.  It comes from Matthew O'Brien of The Atlantic courtesy of Business Insider.   It provides in convertible proof that there has been private sector job growth over the last four years. In fact, during the Obama Administration there have been a net creation of 427k private sector jobs.  I suspe…
Great Graphic: US Private Sector Job Growth Great Graphic: US Private Sector Job Growth Reviewed by Marc Chandler on August 21, 2012 Rating: 5
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Dollar Bends, but Doesn't Break

August 21, 2012
The US dollar is broadly lower against nearly all the major and emerging market currencies.  Its firmer tone against the yen is the main exception.  Risk-on is the general theme de jour.  Equity markets are mostly higher in Asia and Europe.  Peripheral bond markets are also firmer, as the Spanish and Italian rally continues.  Core bond yields are…
Dollar Bends, but Doesn't Break Dollar Bends, but Doesn't Break Reviewed by Marc Chandler on August 21, 2012 Rating: 5
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The Churn Burn Continues

August 20, 2012
It looked as if foreign exchange operators were going to take heart from the weekend reports that seemed to play up the possibility of unlimited ECB action in terms of both time and scope to target interest rate spreads in the euro area.  The euro looked poised to extend its recent gains, and drag the other European currencies with it.  The risk-…
The Churn Burn Continues The Churn Burn Continues Reviewed by Marc Chandler on August 20, 2012 Rating: 5
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Does Making Sense of the Dollar still Make Sense?

August 19, 2012
Today is the third anniversary of the publication of my book, Making Sense of the Dollar:  Exposing Dangerous Myths about Trade and Foreign Exchange.  The book presented big picture and long-term arguments about the future of the dollar and, more generally, the US commercial expansion strategy.  
The thesis of the book is simply that the dollar a…
Does Making Sense of the Dollar still Make Sense? Does Making Sense of the Dollar still Make Sense? Reviewed by Marc Chandler on August 19, 2012 Rating: 5
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Great Graphic: Value of College Degree

August 19, 2012
This Great Graphic comes from The Atlantic.  It provides evidence in the ongoing argument over the market value of a college degree.   In the US, expenditures on higher education are considered consumption.  However, a more compelling case can be made that such expenditures are an investment and that such an investment is associated with a higher…
Great Graphic: Value of College Degree Great Graphic: Value of College Degree Reviewed by Marc Chandler on August 19, 2012 Rating: 5
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Currency Positioning and Outlook

August 18, 2012
The market is like expectant parents who don't know the gender of the fetus.    They know something big is around the corner, but they don't have enough information to make some important decisions.  They can contemplate the future, but they are not sure of any scenario.    
Perhaps former US Defense Secretary Rumsfeld was not always wron…
Currency Positioning and Outlook Currency Positioning and Outlook Reviewed by Marc Chandler on August 18, 2012 Rating: 5
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Summary of Big Picture Views

August 17, 2012
In golf, it is said "drive for show and putt for dough".  In learning to drive an auto, one is often advised the exact opposite.  "Aim high in steering", one is told, which means that rather than look a few feet in front of the car, look further down the road. 
Given current market conditions, summer vacations and the numerous…
Summary of Big Picture Views Summary of Big Picture Views Reviewed by Marc Chandler on August 17, 2012 Rating: 5
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Great Graphic: FX Deposits in China

August 17, 2012
This Great Graphiccomes  from the Also Spracht Analystblog.   It decomposes the strong shift into foreign currencies from the yuan by Chinese businesses and households. 
 In July,  the household demand for foreign currencies was largely flat.  It has increased by about a fifth from a year ago.  Foreign currency deposits from from non-financial in…
Great Graphic: FX Deposits in China Great Graphic: FX Deposits in China Reviewed by Marc Chandler on August 17, 2012 Rating: 5
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Market Update and Thoughts on the Canadian Dollar

August 17, 2012
The US dollar is narrowly mixed as North American traders return to finish out the week.  The euro and Swiss franc are the strongest majors on the day and week.  Continued recovery in Spanish and Italian bonds and stocks has helped lift the euro.  The rise in core interest rates (15-17 bp this week for US, UK and German benchmark 10-year bonds) …
Market Update and Thoughts on the Canadian Dollar Market Update and Thoughts on the Canadian Dollar Reviewed by Marc Chandler on August 17, 2012 Rating: 5
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Is it Shuttle or Shuffle Diplomacy in Europe?

August 16, 2012
There is one main feature of the euro zone economic data next week. Yet the flash PMI readings are unlikely to be sufficiently different from the July readings to prompt a reassessment of the trajectory of the regional economy. More important than the economic data will be the political maneuverings.

There will be a flurry of meetings…
Is it Shuttle or Shuffle Diplomacy in Europe? Is it Shuttle or Shuffle Diplomacy in Europe? Reviewed by Marc Chandler on August 16, 2012 Rating: 5
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Great Graphic: Wind Infographic

August 16, 2012
It's National Wind Week and to celebrate Obama tweeted the following:


I could not agree more. (And neither could my brilliant webmaster who left the finance industry to go work in clean tech). Here is a great graphic she found from the DOE on Wind Energy in the US:

Great Graphic: Wind Infographic Great Graphic: Wind Infographic Reviewed by magonomics on August 16, 2012 Rating: 5
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Great Graphic: Nominal Effective Exchange Rates

August 16, 2012
This Great Graphic comes from an email I received from Thomson Reuters.  It charts the nominal effective exchange rates (NEER)of the dollar, euro, Swiss franc and Australian dollar.  It is weighted by trade partner, but is not adjusted for inflation.  Some economists take the NEER measure and adjust for inflation.  This generates a real effective…
Great Graphic: Nominal Effective Exchange Rates Great Graphic: Nominal Effective Exchange Rates Reviewed by Marc Chandler on August 16, 2012 Rating: 5
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UK Goes Shopping (sort of) and Euro Observations

August 16, 2012
The US dollar is mostly softer against the major currencies.  Its five week high against the yen is an exception to the generalization and is coinciding with 4-week rise in US bond yields.  That move began prior to the string of better US data that now includes jobs report, retail sales, and industrial output.  Other core bond yields have risen, …
UK Goes Shopping (sort of) and Euro Observations UK Goes Shopping (sort of) and Euro Observations Reviewed by Marc Chandler on August 16, 2012 Rating: 5
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Sterling Update: What is the BOE Thinking?

August 15, 2012
This is the big week for UK economic data. The firm CPI figures yesterday were followed by somewhat better than expected employment data today and the MPC minutes. The slew of data concludes tomorrow with the July retail sales data, which are expected to be soft (Bloomberg consensus -0.1% on headline).
The high frequency data doe…
Sterling Update: What is the BOE Thinking? Sterling Update: What is the BOE Thinking? Reviewed by Marc Chandler on August 15, 2012 Rating: 5
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Great Graphic Europe's Commercial Empire in Retreat

August 15, 2012
This Great Graphic comes from Alea and Deutsche Bank.  Just like the end of the Great War saw the UK and France pullback from their territorial empires, with some pushing from the US (see the Suez Crisis and Indochina), the existential crisis in Europe is forcing a retreat from the commercial empire.  There are numerous examples.  This is one.  E…
Great Graphic Europe's Commercial Empire in Retreat Great Graphic Europe's Commercial Empire in Retreat Reviewed by Marc Chandler on August 15, 2012 Rating: 5
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Narrow Ranges on End of Bretton Woods Anniversary

August 15, 2012
The US dollar has been confined to ranges against the major foreign currencies that have largely been seen already this week.   The exchange rates may feel fixed now, but they are not and today, in fact marks the 41st anniversary of the end of the Bretton Woods agreement. They are churning as the players mark time in lieu of fresh incentives and …
Narrow Ranges on End of Bretton Woods Anniversary Narrow Ranges on End of Bretton Woods Anniversary Reviewed by Marc Chandler on August 15, 2012 Rating: 5
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Is Rajoy Serious or is He Just Flirting?

August 14, 2012
A Spanish newspaper is reporting today that a formal request for EFSF aid for domestic banks can come as early as this week. This would be seen to clear the way for the payment of the first tranche of the 100 bln euro bank aid package that had been previously earmarked. That in turn could help meet the conditionality outlined by Draghi that woul…
Is Rajoy Serious or is He Just Flirting? Is Rajoy Serious or is He Just Flirting? Reviewed by Marc Chandler on August 14, 2012 Rating: 5
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Great Graphic: Average Interest Rates on Debt

August 14, 2012
This Great Graphic comes from Also Sprach Analyst blog.   It depicts the yields of the periphery and Germany in an important way that is often overlooked.  It shows the average yield that the countries are paying on their debt.   Many observers  focus on some part of the curve, which helps make comparative claims and generates relative value trad…
Great Graphic: Average Interest Rates on Debt Great Graphic: Average Interest Rates on Debt Reviewed by Marc Chandler on August 14, 2012 Rating: 5
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Should ECB Sell Bunds?

August 14, 2012
The US dollar is  mostly softer as the broad position adjustment phase continues.    Whatever momentum there was though eased in the European morning after the modest upside surprise in German and French Q2 GDP estimates failed to translate into a stronger euro area GDP figure.  The 0.2% contraction was spot on consensus.  The German economy expa…
Should ECB Sell Bunds? Should ECB Sell Bunds? Reviewed by Marc Chandler on August 14, 2012 Rating: 5
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Why Greece is Still the Word

August 13, 2012
While, the German Constitutional Court ruling on ESM and implementation of Draghi's conditional proposals for the ECB to buy Spanish and Italian bonds are awaited, Greece is looming large. A German paper reported over the weekend that the deputy parliamentary leader for the CDU threatened that if Greece does not fulfill its obligations, Ger…
Why Greece is Still the Word Why Greece is Still the Word Reviewed by Marc Chandler on August 13, 2012 Rating: 5
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Great Graphic: Housing Market Recovery in Perspective

August 13, 2012
This Great Graphic from Calculated Risk puts the US housing market recovery in the context of past recoveries.  Two points are clear.  Single family house starts is recovering and it is historically weak.  The July data is slated for release on Thursday, August 16.  
A small decline is expected after the 6.9% increase in June.   June starts of 76…
Great Graphic: Housing Market Recovery in Perspective Great Graphic: Housing Market Recovery in Perspective Reviewed by Marc Chandler on August 13, 2012 Rating: 5
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Market Update and Three Items that Should be on Your Radar Screen

August 13, 2012
The US dollar remains confined to its recent well worn ranges against the major currencies.   A quiet Asian session gave way to a euro bounce in the European morning, which was the main price action.  Euro gains were across the board and but with intra-day technical readings stretched, look for the $1.2335-50 area to cap it. 

The much anticipat…
Market Update and Three Items that Should be on Your Radar Screen Market Update and Three Items that Should be on Your Radar Screen Reviewed by Marc Chandler on August 13, 2012 Rating: 5
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Great Graphic: Financial Disintegration Revisited

August 12, 2012
This Great Graphic from Sober Look is taken from the ECB's latest report.  It provides more evidence of our presented here and in our recent letter to the editor at the Financial Times that the financial integration process in Europe is going in reverse. 
Financial integration is the cross-border movement of capital. A key part of this integ…
Great Graphic: Financial Disintegration Revisited Great Graphic: Financial Disintegration Revisited Reviewed by Marc Chandler on August 12, 2012 Rating: 5
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Currency Positioning and Outlook

August 11, 2012
Market positioning in the week ending August 7 suggests that speculators in the futures market generally agree with our assessment that ECB President Draghi's recent proposal was not a game changer.  The recent pattern continued.  Essentially what this entails is buying the Australian and Canadian dollars and Mexican peso and some light posit…
Currency Positioning and Outlook Currency Positioning and Outlook Reviewed by Marc Chandler on August 11, 2012 Rating: 5
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Quick Data Review

August 10, 2012
The economic reports for Canada and the US have been off consensus. We briefly discuss these and the implications.
1. Canada's jobs report looked worse than it was. The Canadian dollar dropped on the news, but the BoC will not be swayed by the optics and it will retain its hawkish rhetoric. The Bloomberg consensus has looked for a minor 6k…
Quick Data Review Quick Data Review Reviewed by Marc Chandler on August 10, 2012 Rating: 5
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Key Crop Report Ahead of Weekend

August 10, 2012
The US dollar is trading at its best levels for the week.  Two factors seem to be behind the firmer tone.  The first is technical.  The lack of follow through dollar selling after last week's poor close is prompting some position adjusting.  Second, disappointing Chinese data (trade and bank loans) renews fears that the world's second lar…
Key Crop Report Ahead of Weekend Key Crop Report Ahead of Weekend Reviewed by Marc Chandler on August 10, 2012 Rating: 5
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Great Graphic: Central Bank Balance Sheets

August 09, 2012
This Great Graphic comes from the FT Alphaville, who picked it up from Credit Suisse.  It shows that as a percentage of GDP, the ECB and BOE's balance sheets are larger than the US. The fact that the ECB's balance sheet grew more through lending than bond buying is illustrated by the second chart.  If, as many expect, the Fed does announc…
Great Graphic: Central Bank Balance Sheets Great Graphic: Central Bank Balance Sheets Reviewed by Marc Chandler on August 09, 2012 Rating: 5
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ECB's Greek Fudge: Nutty and Stale?

August 09, 2012
The ECB has made some decisions regarding Greece that clearly indicate it does not want to push Greece out of monetary union. It has gone so far as to essentially allow the Bank of Greece to fund the Greek government. 
Consider the sequence of events. There was a 31.5 bln euro aid tranche that was due in June that the Troika delayed disbursement…
ECB's Greek Fudge: Nutty and Stale? ECB's Greek Fudge: Nutty and Stale? Reviewed by Marc Chandler on August 09, 2012 Rating: 5
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Game Changers

August 09, 2012
The US dollar is narrowly mixed.  Consolidation still appears to be the main feature, though sterling and Australian dollar and Canadian dollars have marginally extended recent gains.  In contrast, the euro recorded a new low for the week.  The next level of support is seen near $1.2380.  

A further decline in Chinese CPI (1.8% July vs 2.2% in Ju…
Game Changers Game Changers Reviewed by Marc Chandler on August 09, 2012 Rating: 5
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Japan Update

August 08, 2012
There are three developments in Japan to note: political compromise over the retail sales tax hike, outcome of BOJ meeting and economic developments. Despite some press reports playing up the likelihood of official intervention, we continue to see the odds as slight. The dollar-yen exchange rate remains confined to a JPY78-JPY79 trading range.…
Japan Update Japan Update Reviewed by Marc Chandler on August 08, 2012 Rating: 5
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Great Graphic: Borrowing from the ECB

August 08, 2012
Here is a Great Graphic from Sober Look.  It shows the peripheral countries borrowings from the ECB.  It is clear from the chart why the focus is on Spain.  Its bank borrowings from the ECB continue to rise precipitously.  Italy's bank borrowings appear to be leveling off albeit at elevated levels.    Ireland and Portugal bank borrowings are …
Great Graphic: Borrowing from the ECB Great Graphic: Borrowing from the ECB Reviewed by Marc Chandler on August 08, 2012 Rating: 5
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Redenomination Genie Remains Out of the Bottle

August 08, 2012
The US dollar is trading with a firmer bias today, but largely remains confined to recent ranges.  Sentiment remains cautious.  Participants seem to lack a near-term focus, but the failure of the foreign currencies to build on last week's gains is a bit disappointing, though the pullbacks have been shallow.

Global equities are mixed.  The MSC…
Redenomination Genie Remains Out of the Bottle Redenomination Genie Remains Out of the Bottle Reviewed by Marc Chandler on August 08, 2012 Rating: 5
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Is OSI Next ?

August 07, 2012
The agreement struck earlier this year projects that Greece's debt to GDP ratio will near 120% in 2020. At the time, officials, including at the IMF, claimed this was meant the definition of sustainable. Investors were rightly skeptical. A Dow Jones report says the IMF is re-considering its position and now is interested in redefining s…
Is OSI Next ? Is OSI Next ? Reviewed by Marc Chandler on August 07, 2012 Rating: 5
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Great Graphic: Subsidize This Great Graphic: Subsidize This Reviewed by magonomics on August 07, 2012 Rating: 5
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Consolidative Tone and Positive News from Unexpected Source

August 07, 2012
The US dollar has been largely confined to yesterday's ranges against the major and emerging market currencies.  The Australian dollar is the notable exception, where it briefly pushed through $1.06 on the back of the stand pat central bank and no currency protest.

The general tone through the capital markets is consolidative.   Italian and …
Consolidative Tone and Positive News from Unexpected Source Consolidative Tone and Positive News from Unexpected Source Reviewed by Marc Chandler on August 07, 2012 Rating: 5
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Sweden

August 06, 2012
Since mid-May the Swedish krona has been the strongest of the major currencies, appreciating roughly 4.5% against the dollar and nearly 9%  against the euro.

Sweden's interest rates are attractive, especially on a risk-adjusted basis. At 90 bp, the two-year note yield is considerably higher than attainable in the non-periphery of Europe and w…
Sweden Sweden Reviewed by Marc Chandler on August 06, 2012 Rating: 5
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Four Observations to Start the Week

August 06, 2012
The US dollar begins the week consolidating last week’s losses after modest follow through selling was seen in Asia.     Soft UK house prices, anticipation of a dovish BOE quarterly inflation report midweek, and some cross rate selling has seen sterling under perform.   The other major currencies are little changed and the greenback is slightly fi…
Four Observations to Start the Week Four Observations to Start the Week Reviewed by Marc Chandler on August 06, 2012 Rating: 5
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Great Graphic: Mr Market Exaggerates

August 05, 2012
At first the ECB's NATO strategy--No Action Talk Only--produced a sharp sell-off of the euro and Spanish and Italian bonds, especially the long end.  On second thought, the half glass was really half full and there was a dramatic rally of the euro and Spanish and Italian bonds.  The idea was the the ECB was preparing to support the bond marke…
Great Graphic: Mr Market Exaggerates Great Graphic: Mr Market Exaggerates Reviewed by Marc Chandler on August 05, 2012 Rating: 5
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Currency Positioning and Technical Analysis

August 04, 2012
The overall technical tone of the US dollar is suspect.  During the last few months, it has been trending lower against the dollar-bloc currencies, Canadian and Australian dollars and the Mexican peso.  The greenback has trended higher against the euro and Swiss franc and has been range bound against sterling and the yen.  
This broad pattern may …
Currency Positioning and Technical Analysis Currency Positioning and Technical Analysis Reviewed by Marc Chandler on August 04, 2012 Rating: 5
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Great Graphic: US Employment Comparison

August 03, 2012
This Great Graphic is from Business Insider who in turn takes it from Calculated Risk.  It puts the job growth during this recovery in the context of other recoveries. 
Yes this recovery is different.  Yet as we have noted before, what really stands out is that unlike previous recoveries, this one has seen the government sector shed workers.  In…
Great Graphic: US Employment Comparison Great Graphic: US Employment Comparison Reviewed by Marc Chandler on August 03, 2012 Rating: 5
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