Great Graphic: ADP Jobs Estimate Takes on Greater Significance

If the Republican shut down of the federal government continues the September jobs report will be not released on Friday.  This will give greater significance to the ADP estimate that will be released Wednesday morning (8:15 EDT/13:13 GMT).  

While on a month-to-month basis there may be some discrepancy, as this Great Graphic posted by Joe Weisenthal on Business Insider shows, it does do a fairly good job over anything but the shortest of terms of capturing the private sector employment changes.  Here, the ADP estimate is in red and the BLS estimate of private sector non-farm payrolls is in blue.

That said, the ADP generally under-estimates private sector jobs gains compared with the government's estimate.  The BLS figures show the US has created a net 186k private sector jobs a month.  The ADP estimate shows an average of 170k.  In 2012, the BLS figures showed an average monthly private sector job gain of 189k, while ADP estimated 163k.  

The Bloomberg consensus is for the ADP estimate to show 180k private sector jobs were created in September.  If an adjustment is made for the average shortfall this year in the ADP estimate, it would suggest the BLS estimate could be closer to 196k.   The Bloomberg consensus estimate for private sector non-farm payrolls is 182k.