This Great Graphic was tweeted by Silvia Merler. It was apparently produced by Credit Agricole, but comes from Eurostat and ECB data.
It shows the last staff forecasts for CPI (the harmonized measure, HICP). Other renditions of this chart show earlier forecasts as well. The bottom line is that the staff has been consistently over-estimating inflation and they are at risk for doing so again.
Yes, the calendar quirk of Easter (April instead of March as was the case last year) may see a tick up in HICP when the April data (flash ) is reported later this month. That may give the ECB the excuse not to change policy in May. June may be a different story. The door is most certainly not closed to additional ECB action.
It shows the last staff forecasts for CPI (the harmonized measure, HICP). Other renditions of this chart show earlier forecasts as well. The bottom line is that the staff has been consistently over-estimating inflation and they are at risk for doing so again.
Yes, the calendar quirk of Easter (April instead of March as was the case last year) may see a tick up in HICP when the April data (flash ) is reported later this month. That may give the ECB the excuse not to change policy in May. June may be a different story. The door is most certainly not closed to additional ECB action.
Great Graphic: ECB Staff Forecasts of CPI
Reviewed by Marc Chandler
on
April 03, 2014
Rating:
Reviewed by Marc Chandler
on
April 03, 2014
Rating:
