Draghi delivered. He managed to get approval for everything.
Rate cuts, acceleration of purchases, including corporate bonds to the purchase
program and new long-term repos were announced. The knee-jerk reaction
was favorable. The euro fell over
1% and peripheral European bonds rallied.
The deposit rate was cut 10 bp to minus
40 bp. The asset purchases were increased by 20 bln euros a month
to 80 bln. Investment grade, non-financial corporate bonds would be
included, easing concerns of a shortage of assets. There will
also be new long-term repo operations starting in June.
The euro's sell-off is the biggest since November. At the start of Draghi's press conference the euro slipped through last week's low near $1.0825. A break of $1.08 would signal a test on $1.0750 and then $1.0710, the low from earlier this year.
With today's actions, the ECB has unleashed its quiver, and it is unreasonable to expect it to do more until it
sees the impact of today's action. The new TLTROs (four year duration) do not begin until
June. The rate can be as low as the deposit rate. This means that the ECB will pay banks to take funds. These considerations would likely keep the ECB sidelined then until
late in the year. Many are framing the
issue now in terms of the effectiveness of the measures. This is indeed important,
though we are not particularly
optimistic.
Instead, we think the ECB is ultimately buying time. The
idea is that base effect, stabilization of commodities, and continued economic
expansion will absorb more slack, and
this will see price pressures firm later this year.
Disclaimer
Draghi Delivers, but Now What?
Reviewed by Marc Chandler
on
March 10, 2016
Rating:
Reviewed by Marc Chandler
on
March 10, 2016
Rating:
