Overview: The five-day advance of the S&P
500 stalled yesterday and global equities are mixed today. Most Asian
centers remain closed, Japan and some small markets were lower, while Taiwan,
Australia, and India moved higher. The seven-day rally in Europe's Dow
Jones Stoxx 600 is under threat today. Australia and New Zealand bond
yields fell, while European bonds are little changed, Italian bonds are underperforming,
In the foreign exchange market, the dollar remains firm against the major
currencies, and the Dollar Index is extending its rally into fifth consecutive
session, the longest since last September-October. Most emerging markets
currencies are weaker. The Indian rupee is a notable exception. It
is firmer even though the Reserve Bank of India surprised many with a 25 bp
rate cut. The Bank of England meets, but not fresh action of
guidance is expected.
Asia Pacific
The Australian and New Zealand
dollars have fallen out of favor. After rallying on a hawkish central
bank statement, the Australian dollar came under pressure when Governor Lowe
signaled a neutral stance. New Zealand reported an unexpected
strong rise in unemployment from a revised 3.9% (from 4.0%, which was a
ten-year low) to 4.3%. Slower employment growth and a dip in the
participation rate were also reported.
At his first meeting, the
new Governor of the Reserve Bank of India surprised most observers with a 25 bp
cut in the repo rate to 6.25%. Only about a quarter of the Bloomberg survey anticipated
rat cute, though as we noted yesterday, inflation and growth have been
weakening. The decision to cut was on a 4-2 vote, but the shift to a
neutral bias was unanimous decision. Last week Prime Minister Modi
unveiled a fiscal stimulus initiative (ahead of elections later this
year). The combination of easier monetary and fiscal policies
tends to be associated with a weaker currency. Counter-intuitively
the rupee is trading higher for the third consecutive session, despite the
unexpected rate move. The dollar had gapped higher on Monday and the
losses over the past three sessions, saw the dollar fill the gap. The
greenback finished last week near INR71.25. It is not a little above
INR71.40.
The dollar remains in tight
ranges against the yen, though is edging up for the fourth consecutive
session. It may be running into option-related offers with a $1.1
bln in expiring options struck at JPY110.00. The Australian
dollar has marginally extended yesterday's nearly 1.8% decline that brought it
to $0.7100. The Aussie is straddling that area now. The low from the
second half of January is was near $0.7075, which is the next immediate target,
and a break may signal a move toward $0.7000-$0.7020. The New Zealand dollar's
losses are also being extended. Strong support is not seen until near
$0.6700. It finished last month above $0.6900.
Europe
Economic data from the EMU
continues to disappoint economists' forecasts. Policymakers also continue
to be surprised. The Bloomberg survey found median expectations
for German industrial output to rise 0.8% in December and 0.4% in Spain.
Instead, German industrial production slumped 0.4% and Spain's industrial
output dropped 1.4%. Italy reported December retail sales fell
0.7%. The median guesstimate was for a 0.2% decline. After
reporting that some sources close to the ECB saw a new loan facility as urgent
earlier in the week, Bloomberg reported yesterday that other sources still
needed to be convinced. Today's economic data coupled with the ECB's
month bulletin, acknowledging weaker growth is part of the compelling evidence
that we expected to continue to build. Officials will want to get
the most bang for the buck, which means milking the
announcement effect for as much as possible as well.
There are two developments in
the Brexit drama to note. First, Labour Corbyn has staked out
what could be the party's clearest stance on Brexit to date. He
offered to support May's bill provided she meet five conditions, of which
staying the customs union. May does not appear ready to embrace his
demands. Second, reports suggest that May's brinkmanship tactics
means that a House of Commons vote next week is too early. Instead,
it looks as if the next vote would be a fortnight later (~February
25?).
At the end of last year, op-ed
pages were full of hand wringing economists worried about the demand for
Italian bonds after the ECB, who were told was the only buyer, ended its asset
purchases. But lo and behold, Italian bonds have been in great
demand. Last month saw a record reception to its 2035 bond
sales. It came back with a 30-year bond syndicated sale that was more
than five times oversubscribed. It seems too easy to conclude that
Italy's high yields are overcoming other concerns, but look at what happened in
Japan. Japan's 10-year bond sales earlier in the week drew the
strongest demand in more than a decade, and today's 30-year bond offering saw a
bid-cover in excess of four times. Italy's 30-year yield is near
3.77%, while Japan's is near 60 bp. The US rounds out its quarterly
refunding with a sale of $19 bln 30-year bonds today. The bid-cover was a
little higher for the three-year note sale and a little softer for the 10-year
sale yesterday, though indirect bidders (which asset managers and foreign
central banks) in both auctions were stronger than previously. At the
last 30-year sales, bids were for a little more than twice what the Treasury
was selling.
The dovish ECB saw the euro
slip through $1.13, the lower end of its range. The dovish FOMC saw the
euro firm through $1.15 the upper end of its range. The series of weak
EMU data has weighed on the euro, which is approaching the lower end of the
range again. Short-term participants may turn move cautious as the $1.1300
level comes back into view. The single currency has fallen
against the dollar each session this week, so far, and for its part, sterling
extended its losing streak for a sixth session today. It has fallen
below the $1.2925 shelf that it had appeared to be building over the past
couple of days. There is a GBP200 mln option at $1.29 that will be cut
today, but the next important chart support for sterling is not found until
closer to $1.2830.
America
The economic calendar is
light. The US
reports weekly initial jobless claims and a pullback is expected after the
previous week's spike. Regional Fed Presidents Kaplan and Bullard speak
today and Vice Chair Clarida also speaks. Mexico report inflation (which
is expected to ease slightly) after of the central bank meeting, where rates
are expected to remain at 8.25%. A rate hike is still priced in for H2
19.
The US dollar is rising against
the Canadian dollar for the fourth session. It is testing the 20-day
moving average near CAD1.3240. It has not closed above its 20-day
moving average since January 2. It needs to get above CAD1.3285 to target
CAD1.34. The dollar remains in a narrow range against the Mexican
peso. We like it higher, but the greenback faces offer beginning near
MXN19.20.
Disclaimer
Dollar's Gains Extended
Reviewed by Marc Chandler
on
February 07, 2019
Rating: