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Restrained Market Reaction to Fraying Middle East Ceasefire

May 28, 2026
The market has taken the increase in Middle East hostilities in stride. The response in the capital markets has been fairly restrained, though risk appetites have been pulled back, reflected in the losses in equities. The dollar is also firmer against most currencies, though the yen has recovered from the lowest level of the month. Crude oil is fi…
Restrained Market Reaction to Fraying Middle East Ceasefire Restrained Market Reaction to Fraying Middle East Ceasefire Reviewed by Marc Chandler on May 28, 2026 Rating: 5
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Geopolitical Hopes Underpin Risk Appetites

May 27, 2026
Many remain hopeful of a resolution in the Middle East even though the hostilities are still flaring up and Israel appears to have launched a new offensive in Lebanon. Oil prices are around $3 lower and equity markets mostly higher outside of Japan, China, and Hong Kong. The dollar is mixed. Lifted by a hawkish hold by the Reserve Bank of New Zeal…
Geopolitical Hopes Underpin Risk Appetites Geopolitical Hopes Underpin Risk Appetites Reviewed by Marc Chandler on May 27, 2026 Rating: 5
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Ceasefire Frays, Tempers Enthusiasm, but Hope Lingers

May 26, 2026
The US dollar is trading with a slightly firmer bias against most currencies today. New hostilities in the Middle East war have blunted the hopes of an extended ceasefire, but such skirmishes are not uncommon in such situations. On Polymarket, the odds that the Strait of Hormuz opens by the end of June was cut to about 45% from a peak of almost 60…
Ceasefire Frays, Tempers Enthusiasm, but Hope Lingers Ceasefire Frays, Tempers Enthusiasm, but Hope Lingers Reviewed by Marc Chandler on May 26, 2026 Rating: 5
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Week Ahead: US Economic Resilience Supports the Dollar

May 23, 2026
The resilience of the US economy is remarkable. The economy bounced back from near stagnation in Q4 25 (0.5% annualized pace) to 2% in Q1 26 and, and perhaps to 4.3% this quarter, if the Atlanta Fed's GDP tracker is accurate. Wall Street economists are less sanguine and the median forecast in Bloomberg's survey from last week is at a more …
Week Ahead: US Economic Resilience Supports the Dollar Week Ahead: US Economic Resilience Supports the Dollar Reviewed by Marc Chandler on May 23, 2026 Rating: 5
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Stocks and Bonds Rally Despite the Apparent Lack of Progress in the Middle East Stocks and Bonds Rally Despite the Apparent Lack of Progress in the Middle East Reviewed by Marc Chandler on May 22, 2026 Rating: 5
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Flash PMIs Show War's Impact

May 21, 2026
There have been no further developments to fuel optimism about the Strait of Hormuz. Polymarket shows little change in the assessment that there is around a 35% chance that the Strait is open by the end of next month and 47% chance opens by the end of July. Still Brent and WTI are trading with a slightly heavier today. Equities are mostly firmer a…
Flash PMIs Show War's Impact Flash PMIs Show War's Impact Reviewed by Marc Chandler on May 21, 2026 Rating: 5
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Markets Wait

May 20, 2026
The US dollar is mostly firmer, though the Australian and New Zealand dollars are resisting the pull. The euro is trading in almost a 15-tick range on both sides of $1.16, and even with a Gilts-rally spurred by lower-than-expected inflation, sterling is struggling to recapture $1.34. The yen has fallen for the past seven sessions and is little cha…
Markets Wait Markets Wait Reviewed by Marc Chandler on May 20, 2026 Rating: 5
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