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Softer Oil, Softer Greenback

June 04, 2026
A new ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon raises hopes of a breakthrough in US-Iran talks where a low intensity conflict has been waged under the flag of a ceasefire. The Israel-Lebanon deal reportedly does not include Hezbollah, underscoring the fragility and limits of the ceasefire claims. July WTI is near the middle of the $94-$96 range. The m…
Softer Oil, Softer Greenback Softer Oil, Softer Greenback Reviewed by Marc Chandler on June 04, 2026 Rating: 5
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War and New Tariff Threat Strengthen the Dollar

June 03, 2026
While what has been dubbed China Shock 2.0 as the Chinese model moves into higher value-added goods is important, the most immediate challenge facing investors is the double shock from the US in the form or tariffs and war. And both are impacting the capital markets today. More clashes between the US and Iran have been reported, which are underpin…
War and New Tariff Threat Strengthen the Dollar War and New Tariff Threat Strengthen the Dollar Reviewed by Marc Chandler on June 03, 2026 Rating: 5
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Market Continues to Tempt Japanese Intervention, while PBOC Signals Gradual Yuan Appreciation Market Continues to Tempt Japanese Intervention, while PBOC Signals Gradual Yuan Appreciation Reviewed by Marc Chandler on June 02, 2026 Rating: 5
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Oil Gains on Apparent Lack of Middle East Progress

June 01, 2026
The war in the Middle East continues to hang over risk-taking appetites the sword of Damocles. There appears to have been little progress over the weekend, even though a US decision was expected after the meeting in the White House Situation Room at the end of last week. Reports suggest there have been a series of skirmishes over the weekend, and …
Oil Gains on Apparent Lack of Middle East Progress Oil Gains on Apparent Lack of Middle East Progress Reviewed by Marc Chandler on June 01, 2026 Rating: 5
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June 2026 Monthly

May 30, 2026
The world enters June optimistic that an extended ceasefire in the Middle East is possible. The front month Brent oil futures contract finished May at its lowest level in a little more than five weeks. Major US and Japanese equity indices are at record highs. After a dramatic jump, European benchmark 10-year yields pulled back mostly 15-25 bp in M…
June 2026 Monthly June 2026 Monthly Reviewed by Marc Chandler on May 30, 2026 Rating: 5
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Hope Springs Eternal

May 29, 2026
There does not appear to be materially new developments from the Middle East today. While some US officials seem optimistic that progress has been made, it is not clear that an agreement is at hand. Still, oil prices are more than a dollar lower and equities are mostly firmer. The dollar is mixed against the G10 currencies and mostly in narrow ran…
Hope Springs Eternal Hope Springs Eternal Reviewed by Marc Chandler on May 29, 2026 Rating: 5
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Restrained Market Reaction to Fraying Middle East Ceasefire

May 28, 2026
The market has taken the increase in Middle East hostilities in stride. The response in the capital markets has been fairly restrained, though risk appetites have been pulled back, reflected in the losses in equities. The dollar is also firmer against most currencies, though the yen has recovered from the lowest level of the month. Crude oil is fi…
Restrained Market Reaction to Fraying Middle East Ceasefire Restrained Market Reaction to Fraying Middle East Ceasefire Reviewed by Marc Chandler on May 28, 2026 Rating: 5
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