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Thoughts on the Dollar

March 25, 2026
The dollar's resilience since the war began is not a mystery, but it is being misread. The Dollar Index has appreciated roughly 1.8% this month alone, following a modest 0.65% gain in February after January's 1.35% slide. Against every G10 currency, the greenback has advanced since hostilities commenced. All but the Canadian dollar and ste…
Thoughts on the Dollar Thoughts on the Dollar Reviewed by Marc Chandler on March 25, 2026 Rating: 5
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Hope Lifts Stocks and Bonds

March 25, 2026
There continues to be hope in the capital and commodity markets that a US-Israel war on Iran can be brought to a conclusion soon. While news reports indicate that the US had drafted a 15-point peace plan that has been delivered to Iran via Pakistan, other reports indicate that US is sending more people and weapons to the region. Iran has reportedl…
Hope Lifts Stocks and Bonds Hope Lifts Stocks and Bonds Reviewed by Marc Chandler on March 25, 2026 Rating: 5
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Yesterday's Optimism Turns More Guarded

March 24, 2026
The markets remain on edge. President Trump’s five-day hiatus announced yesterday is looked upon suspiciously. Much of what has been claimed seems to be part of the psych-operations associated with warfare, like initiating the war during negotiations. Many seem to share our sense that the five-day period will allow more US troops to enter the regi…
Yesterday's Optimism Turns More Guarded Yesterday's Optimism Turns More Guarded Reviewed by Marc Chandler on March 24, 2026 Rating: 5
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Threat of Massive Escalation of the War Drags Financial Markets Lower, While Lifting the Greenback Threat of Massive Escalation of the War Drags Financial Markets Lower, While Lifting the Greenback Reviewed by Marc Chandler on March 23, 2026 Rating: 5
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Week Ahead: The War and Anticipated Policy Responses Drive the Capital Markets Week Ahead: The War and Anticipated Policy Responses Drive the Capital Markets Reviewed by Marc Chandler on March 21, 2026 Rating: 5
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USD Comes Back Bid after Yesterday's Exaggerated Slide

March 20, 2026
The market seemed to overreact to the central bank meetings this week. The market heard Fed Chair Powell as more hawkish than the FOMC statement and took the dollar sharply higher. Yesterday, it overreacted to the Bank of England and European Central Banks and sold the greenback aggressively. The swaps market is discounting three rate hikes this y…
USD Comes Back Bid after Yesterday's Exaggerated Slide USD Comes Back Bid after Yesterday's Exaggerated Slide Reviewed by Marc Chandler on March 20, 2026 Rating: 5
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Limited Follow-Through Dollar Today After Yesterday's Surge

March 19, 2026
The US dollar rallied strongly during the Federal Reserve’s press conference yesterday as rates jumped in response to what was widely seen as a hawkish hold, especially given Chair Powell’s framing. There has been limited follow-through dollar sales today, but the technical damage inflicted on many pairs has not been reversed. The Bank of Japan, t…
Limited Follow-Through Dollar Today After Yesterday's Surge Limited Follow-Through Dollar Today After Yesterday's Surge Reviewed by Marc Chandler on March 19, 2026 Rating: 5
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