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Rough Start to Ceasefire Curbs Yesterday's Enthusiasm

April 09, 2026
It seemed clear that yesterday’s euphoric reaction to the two-week ceasefire was exaggerated. Ceasefires often have been plagued with disputes and violations at the start. This one is no different. At the same time, Israel’s action in Lebanon complicates the situation and there is some dispute whether it was covered by the ceasefire. President Tru…
Rough Start to Ceasefire Curbs Yesterday's Enthusiasm Rough Start to Ceasefire Curbs Yesterday's Enthusiasm Reviewed by Marc Chandler on April 09, 2026 Rating: 5
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Ceasefire Lifts Animal Spirits

April 08, 2026
Risk appetites have been excited by the two-week cease fire in the Middle East. Stocks and bonds have rallied strongly. The precious metals are higher. May WTI is off more than 15%. June Brent is about 13% lower. The US dollar is weaker against all the G10 and emerging market currencies that are trading. The ceasefire is overwhelming other develop…
Ceasefire Lifts Animal Spirits Ceasefire Lifts Animal Spirits Reviewed by Marc Chandler on April 08, 2026 Rating: 5
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On the Edge of the Abyss

April 07, 2026
The dollar is mostly narrowly mixed against the G10 currencies. Leaving aside the Swedish krona, which has fallen nearly 0.75% on the back of an unexpected soft March CPI, the other G10 currencies are +/- less than 0.2%. Investors remain on edge ahead the US ultimatum deadline, which is in the Asia Pacific session today. There are mixed reports on…
On the Edge of the Abyss On the Edge of the Abyss Reviewed by Marc Chandler on April 07, 2026 Rating: 5
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Cease-Fire Hopes Blunt US Ultimatum

April 06, 2026
The US deadline on Tehran for re-opening the Strait of Hormuz has subtly shifted until tomorrow. The holiday-thinned market initially bought dollars and oil and took risk off in response to the continued attacks and the escalation of US rhetoric. However, negotiations, apparently led by Pakistan, Egypt, and Türkiye for a 45-day cease fire, have ca…
Cease-Fire Hopes Blunt US Ultimatum Cease-Fire Hopes Blunt US Ultimatum Reviewed by Marc Chandler on April 06, 2026 Rating: 5
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Week Ahead: It's Still Mostly about the War

April 04, 2026
The Middle East war remains the dominant fundamental condition. There continues to be some indication that market participants are hopeful of a resolution soon. The May WTI contract settled near $111.55 last week, which appears to build in the risk of near-term escalation, but the June contract settled close to $98. The September contract is below…
Week Ahead: It's Still Mostly about the War Week Ahead: It's Still Mostly about the War Reviewed by Marc Chandler on April 04, 2026 Rating: 5
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Risk of Escalation Discourages Risk Taking while US Jobs Report May Extend the Dollar's Narrow Ranges Risk of Escalation Discourages Risk Taking while US Jobs Report May Extend the Dollar's Narrow Ranges Reviewed by Marc Chandler on April 03, 2026 Rating: 5
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Hope Dashed, Risk Appetites Slashed Ahead of Long Holiday Weekend for Many

April 02, 2026
President Trump’s national address seemed to contain little more than a reading of some of his recent social media posts. The market was eager for some sign of confirmation of its hope that had buoyed the capital markets in the last couple of sessions. It found none. The threat of escalating attacks while reiterating that the US military operation…
Hope Dashed, Risk Appetites Slashed Ahead of Long Holiday Weekend for Many Hope Dashed, Risk Appetites Slashed Ahead of Long Holiday Weekend for Many Reviewed by Marc Chandler on April 02, 2026 Rating: 5
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