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Flash PMIs Show War's Impact

May 21, 2026
There have been no further developments to fuel optimism about the Strait of Hormuz. Polymarket shows little change in the assessment that there is around a 35% chance that the Strait is open by the end of next month and 47% chance opens by the end of July. Still Brent and WTI are trading with a slightly heavier today. Equities are mostly firmer a…
Flash PMIs Show War's Impact Flash PMIs Show War's Impact Reviewed by Marc Chandler on May 21, 2026 Rating: 5
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Markets Wait

May 20, 2026
The US dollar is mostly firmer, though the Australian and New Zealand dollars are resisting the pull. The euro is trading in almost a 15-tick range on both sides of $1.16, and even with a Gilts-rally spurred by lower-than-expected inflation, sterling is struggling to recapture $1.34. The yen has fallen for the past seven sessions and is little cha…
Markets Wait Markets Wait Reviewed by Marc Chandler on May 20, 2026 Rating: 5
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Asia and Europe were More Skeptical about Developments in the Strait of Hormuz than the US Asia and Europe were More Skeptical about Developments in the Strait of Hormuz than the US Reviewed by Marc Chandler on May 19, 2026 Rating: 5
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Takaichi Endorses Supplemental Budget, Trump Escalates Rhetoric toward Iran, and Markets Spooked Takaichi Endorses Supplemental Budget, Trump Escalates Rhetoric toward Iran, and Markets Spooked Reviewed by Marc Chandler on May 18, 2026 Rating: 5
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Week Ahead: Rising US Rates Underpin Greenback

May 16, 2026
The US economy appears to be re-accelerating here in Q2 after nearly grinding to a halt in Q1 (0.5% annualized pace). April US CPI and PPI were more elevated than expected. The anticipated average effective Fed funds rate in December rose more than 15 bp in the past week and is up slightly more than 75 bp since the war on Iran began. The Dollar In…
Week Ahead: Rising US Rates Underpin Greenback Week Ahead: Rising US Rates Underpin Greenback Reviewed by Marc Chandler on May 16, 2026 Rating: 5
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Greenback Breaks Higher, Stocks and Bonds Lower

May 15, 2026
The US dollar has extended its gains against most currencies today. What is seen as a successful US-China summit and a swing in expectations for Fed policy are aiding the greenback. The anticipated year-end effective Fed funds rate has risen by a dozen basis points this week and the two-year Treasury yield is up 16 bp this week and is the fourth w…
Greenback Breaks Higher, Stocks and Bonds Lower Greenback Breaks Higher, Stocks and Bonds Lower Reviewed by Marc Chandler on May 15, 2026 Rating: 5
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US Dollar Threatening to Break Higher

May 14, 2026
The US dollar is trading quietly against the major currencies. The euro is holding above $1.17 and sterling is holding above $1.35, but the market does not appear done probing these support areas.  The greenback has also traded as close to JPY158 as possible without going over. This is where the Bank of Japan may have intervened last week. In the …
US Dollar Threatening to Break Higher US Dollar Threatening to Break Higher Reviewed by Marc Chandler on May 14, 2026 Rating: 5
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