CNBC: Currency Outlook
Marc Chandler
December 29, 2008
CNBC: Currency Outlook
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December 29, 2008
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The ECB Fiddles While Rome Burns
magonomics
December 19, 2008
The ECB just doesn’t get it. The Federal Reserve has driven the Fed funds target to 0-25 bp. Short-term US T-bill yields have on occasion dipped below zero. As this is written, the 3-month T-bill yield is quoted at -5 bp. And still there is demand.
The ECB Fiddles While Rome Burns
Reviewed by magonomics
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December 19, 2008
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Reviewed by magonomics
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December 19, 2008
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What if the Credit Crunch is a Symptom?
magonomics
December 11, 2008
Rare is a consensus among economists, the practioners of the dismal science. Yet there seems to be nearly universal agreement about the nature of the current crisis and the parallels with the Great Depression. The paralysis of the capital markets and the inability and/or unwillingness of banks to lend derailed the real economy. By word and by deed…
What if the Credit Crunch is a Symptom?
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Reviewed by magonomics
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December 11, 2008
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Market Watch: China Currency Outlook
magonomics
December 01, 2008
Market Watch: China Currency Outlook
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Reviewed by magonomics
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December 01, 2008
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Why No Currency Crisis
magonomics
November 20, 2008
The historic financial crisis has taken a toll on every country, every market, and every investor. The innocent have been punished alongside the guilty. There is no play book for policy makers to consult for anything outside the bare essentials. Provide ample liquidity. Use both monetary and fiscal policy levers. Prevent a total collapse of the fi…
Why No Currency Crisis
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Reviewed by magonomics
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November 20, 2008
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G20 Early Post-Mortem
magonomics
November 16, 2008
The G20 issued a statement that threw its collective weight—accounting for almost nine-tenths of the world’s GDP—behind pro-growth and pro-trade policies. The attendees broadly agreed to take additional fiscal and monetary measures and pledged not to impose new trade barriers. This is the most that could have reasonably expected.
G20 Early Post-Mortem
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Reviewed by magonomics
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November 16, 2008
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CNBC: Trading Block
magonomics
November 14, 2008
CNBC: Trading Block
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November 14, 2008
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Bretton Woods Redux: The Real Bridge to Nowhere
magonomics
November 13, 2008
Don’t heed the hype. This weekend’s G20 Summit will not, and cannot live up the hopes that a new financial architecture will be unveiled. It will likely be little more than a photo opportunity for the political class to demonstrate to their people that they are doing some about the global crisis.
Bretton Woods Redux: The Real Bridge to Nowhere
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Reviewed by magonomics
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November 13, 2008
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Socialism or National Socialism?
magonomics
November 07, 2008
Governments in numerous countries, especially in the high income countries, have responded to the current acute financial crisis by extending their role in the economy in ways that have not been seen in at least a couple of generations and in magnitude that appears unprecedented. Many observers, and not just unrepentant ideologues, are worried tha…
Socialism or National Socialism?
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November 07, 2008
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It is All Your Fault
magonomics
October 31, 2008
The world is experiencing a financial crisis of historic proportions. It seems only natural to look for the causes. Around the world, including in the United States, many blame America for the financial crisis. Even the UK Prime Minister Gordon Brown, whose economy and financial system share sufficient characteristics with the US as to render mean…
It is All Your Fault
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Reviewed by magonomics
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October 31, 2008
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Summary of Key Points from BOE Financial Stability Report
magonomics
October 30, 2008
The Bank of England's Financial Stability Report offers a timely assessment of the losses on key financial assets being experienced by the UK, US and euro-zone. Between the three areas, the losses today are around $2.8 trillion. In local currency terms, the losses of each center have roughly doubled in the past six months.
Summary of Key Points from BOE Financial Stability Report
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Reviewed by magonomics
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October 30, 2008
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Crisis Temperature Readings Mixed
magonomics
October 24, 2008
There are mixed signals emanating from the money markets. On one hand short-term interbank rates have eased. On the other hand rates remain high. Similarly while some unsecured interbank lending is being reported, it seems the size remains small and limited to a handful of participants.
Crisis Temperature Readings Mixed
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Reviewed by magonomics
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October 24, 2008
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What Next?
magonomics
October 16, 2008
Officials have taken huge measures to ease the money market strain. And yet inter-bank rates remain elevated at levels that continue to threaten the broader economy. What else can officials do?
What Next?
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Reviewed by magonomics
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October 16, 2008
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Anatomy of Crises
magonomics
October 10, 2008
Over the least several decades, economists have generally focused on growth. It became unfashionable to study crises. This will likely change going forward.
Anatomy of Crises
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Reviewed by magonomics
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October 10, 2008
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What Happened to Free Markets?
magonomics
October 03, 2008
A cry can be heard in the canyons of Wall Street and the winding roads of the City: “Capitalism is over. Free markets are dead.” And good riddance, smirked French President Sarkozy and German Finance Minister Steinbruck, Anglo-American financial supremacy is over. Joining them was a cackle from the UN session, where many of the broadsides against …
What Happened to Free Markets?
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Reviewed by magonomics
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October 03, 2008
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Fire and Ice
magonomics
September 26, 2008
Poet Laureate Robert Frost is among the best known American poets. Although he died in 1963, he is the poet of this financial crisis. His Roaring Twenties poem “Fire and Ice” is about how the world may end and also captures the two scenarios of consequences of the crisis.* Fire is inflation. Ice is deflation.
Fire and Ice
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Reviewed by magonomics
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September 26, 2008
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Moral Hazard and the End Game
magonomics
September 19, 2008
Over the past year, as the financial crisis evolved, US officials have generally pursued a reactionary, ad-hoc approach. For more than half a year, some observers have been advocating some kind of comprehensive approach. It has taken a serious attack on the very foundation of the US financial system to get many officials to overcome their ideologi…
Moral Hazard and the End Game
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September 19, 2008
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CNBC: Financial Crisis Task Force
magonomics
September 18, 2008
CNBC: Financial Crisis Task Force
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September 18, 2008
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The Dollar Road Map
magonomics
September 12, 2008
The first leg of the dollar’s recovery appears to be ending. The dramatic trend of the past several weeks is likely to morph into more of a range trading affair, even if it takes time for such a range to become clear. We can anticipate a stream of fundamental news that will also temper some of the recent enthusiasm for the greenback.
The Dollar Road Map
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Reviewed by magonomics
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September 12, 2008
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Foreign Policy Association: Global Economic Outlook Panel
magonomics
September 08, 2008
"The Foreign Policy Association hosted a panel discussion on the current state and outlook of financial markets as Congress considers policy options for stabilizing the system. The second morning session focused on U.S. and global economic outlooks. Topics included the evolution of the current U.S. and global economic climates and economic ad…
Foreign Policy Association: Global Economic Outlook Panel
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Reviewed by magonomics
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September 08, 2008
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Is the Dollar Really King?
magonomics
September 05, 2008
The US dollar recovery over the past several weeks has been simply breath-taking. Consider for example that it took the euro the better part of six months to move from around $1.44 to its record high of almost $1.6050. It took a little more than six weeks to retrace that gain and then some. The violence and persistence of the dollar’s advance sinc…
Is the Dollar Really King?
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Reviewed by magonomics
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September 05, 2008
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Forces of Movement in FX During the last Third of 2008
magonomics
August 28, 2008
We are entering the last third of the calendar year. The first two-thirds have been rough for investors to say the least with a viciously metastasizing financial crisis, a global bear market in equities and a commodity shock of historic proportions. While the last third of the year will no doubt have its challenges, the annus horribillis may end o…
Forces of Movement in FX During the last Third of 2008
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Reviewed by magonomics
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August 28, 2008
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CNBC: Tracking the Dollar
magonomics
August 27, 2008
CNBC: Tracking the Dollar
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Reviewed by magonomics
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August 27, 2008
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CNBC: Trading Block
magonomics
August 25, 2008
CNBC: Trading Block
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August 25, 2008
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The Fed and ECB: The Hubris of Small Diffrences?
magonomics
August 01, 2008
Two major central banks, the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank, meet next week. The neo-conservative Robert Kagan argued that in international affairs, Americans are from Mars and Europeans are from Venus. Many financial market participants appear to have taken this to heart and extended the application from diplomats to monetary offic…
The Fed and ECB: The Hubris of Small Diffrences?
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Reviewed by magonomics
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August 01, 2008
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What Now Greenback?
magonomics
July 25, 2008
The US dollar had been buoyed by the easing of concerns that Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac would fail; a pullback in commodity prices, and weak European and Japanese economic data. However as the last full week in July drew to a close, the greenback lost its momentum as financial fears were rekindled and data shows that the US housing market has not …
What Now Greenback?
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Reviewed by magonomics
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July 25, 2008
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Fannie, Freddie, Hank, Ben, and the Dollar
magonomics
July 18, 2008
Over the past year, officials and investors have been wrestling with a three-pronged threat: a profound crisis in the financial markets and the circuit of capital, the loss of economic momentum, and inflation pressures, largely but not wholly a function of higher food and energy prices. Nearly every country is experiencing these threats, though th…
Fannie, Freddie, Hank, Ben, and the Dollar
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July 18, 2008
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Hard Asset Investor: Examining Changing Currencies
magonomics
June 10, 2008
I did an interview with Mike Norman of Hard Asset Investor you can watch it here.
Hard Asset Investor: Examining Changing Currencies
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Reviewed by magonomics
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June 10, 2008
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Bernanke and Trichet: Comedy or Tragedy?
magonomics
June 08, 2008
Recent comments by the heads of the Federal Reserve and European Central Bank moved the markets. Federal Reserve Chairman Benjamin Bernanke spoke plainly and clearly and yet was nearly universally misunderstood, but the market tended to like what it thought he was saying. In contrast, ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet was perfectly understood and …
Bernanke and Trichet: Comedy or Tragedy?
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Reviewed by magonomics
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June 08, 2008
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Hard Asset Investor: Understanding the Dollar's Decline
magonomics
June 03, 2008
I did an interview with Mike Norman of Hard Asset Investor you can watch it here.
Hard Asset Investor: Understanding the Dollar's Decline
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Reviewed by magonomics
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June 03, 2008
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CNBC: Oil, The Dollar, and The Fed
magonomics
May 28, 2008
CNBC: Oil, The Dollar, and The Fed
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May 28, 2008
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Euro (What it's Good For)
magonomics
May 23, 2008
This month marks the 10th anniversary of the decision in which countries were going to be allowed to participate in European economic and monetary union, one of the greatest experiments in modern history. It offers a timely opportunity to review the euro’s impact, especially given the widespread talk about how the euro is challenging the US dollar…
Euro (What it's Good For)
Reviewed by magonomics
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May 23, 2008
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Reviewed by magonomics
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May 23, 2008
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CNBC: BOE's Move to Pump Liquidity
magonomics
April 21, 2008
CNBC: BOE's Move to Pump Liquidity
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Reviewed by magonomics
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April 21, 2008
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Euro Rally Cracking
magonomics
April 21, 2008
Like an errant child initially doing the opposite of parental wishes only to quickly capitulate, the euro is ending the week on a soft note after having reached record highs against both the US dollar and British pound.
Euro Rally Cracking
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Reviewed by magonomics
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April 21, 2008
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CNBC: Betting on A Dollar Bottom
magonomics
April 09, 2008
CNBC: Betting on A Dollar Bottom
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Reviewed by magonomics
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April 09, 2008
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Lost in Translation: Dollar is a Good Buy, not Goodbye
magonomics
April 04, 2008
Much foreign exchange commentary these days reads like eulogies for the U.S. dollar. Central banks are diversifying reserves away from the dollar. OPEC countries are increasingly worried about the decline of the dollar and the inflationary implications and may break the pegs and possibly even begin benchmarking their black gold in euros rather tha…
Lost in Translation: Dollar is a Good Buy, not Goodbye
Reviewed by magonomics
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April 04, 2008
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Reviewed by magonomics
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April 04, 2008
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CNBC: Saving the Dollar
magonomics
March 17, 2008
CNBC: Saving the Dollar
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Reviewed by magonomics
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March 17, 2008
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Why Intervention to Support the Dollar Remains Unlikely
magonomics
March 14, 2008
The U.S. dollar has fallen sharply in recent days. It has reached new record highs against the euro and Swiss franc. It has fallen below the JPY100 level for the first time since 1995. At the same time oil and gold have raced to new record highs. News reports, citing analysts at a couple of large investment banks, say the intervention watch has be…
Why Intervention to Support the Dollar Remains Unlikely
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Reviewed by magonomics
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March 14, 2008
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If to Err is Human, is Forgiveness Really Divine
magonomics
March 07, 2008
It is clear that the financial crisis that began in the US housing market and the derivatives tied to it has metastasized well beyond it, but it remains in the forefront of policy makers concerns. And for good reason, home ownership in the US reached almost 70% before the recent surge in foreclosures. An estimated 1% of homeowners were in some sta…
If to Err is Human, is Forgiveness Really Divine
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Reviewed by magonomics
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March 07, 2008
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Currency Strategies
magonomics
February 29, 2008
At an estimated $3.2 trillion a day the foreign exchange market is the biggest of all the capital markets. The types of participants range from tourists and retail speculators, to institutional speculators like hedge funds and proprietary traders at banks, to hedgers like corporations and asset managers. Some view the currency market as a source o…
Currency Strategies
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Reviewed by magonomics
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February 29, 2008
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National Security and the Dollar
magonomics
February 22, 2008
The National Intelligence Director Michael McConnell provided his annual risk assessment recently to the Senate Intelligence Committee. In addition to the usual threats of terrorism, nuclear proliferation and the like, McConnell expressed concern about the US dollar. Such strategic concerns are misplaced and suggest that the Bush Administration co…
National Security and the Dollar
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Reviewed by magonomics
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February 22, 2008
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This is the Rainy Day Japan's Reserves are Meant For- Published in the FT
magonomics
February 22, 2008
Japan's economy is weakening, but the country will find it more problematic than other Group of Seven leading industrialized nations to deploy the orthodox policy tools they are using, or contemplating using. With interest rates already extremely low a rate cut would not seem a very effective stimulus and Japan is still experiencing a hang-ove…
This is the Rainy Day Japan's Reserves are Meant For- Published in the FT
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Reviewed by magonomics
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February 22, 2008
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What Not to Expect from the G7 Meeting
magonomics
February 06, 2008
The weekend G7 meeting is unlikely to generate fresh policy initiatives or inject a new force into the foreign exchange market. Indeed with concerns that the world’s biggest economy has begun contracting and as the world's second largest economy stumbles and the third largest economy slows, the foreign exchange market itself may not receive th…
What Not to Expect from the G7 Meeting
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Reviewed by magonomics
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February 06, 2008
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The Dollar: Takes a beating, Can it Keep on Ticking
magonomics
February 01, 2008
The market has been inundated with a steady stream of dollar negative news. The Federal Reserve has slashed its funds rate target by 125 bp over the past ten days or so. Fourth quarter growth was about half of what the consensus expected. The New Year has begun poorly with the US actually shedding jobs for the first time in over four years. In fac…
The Dollar: Takes a beating, Can it Keep on Ticking
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Reviewed by magonomics
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February 01, 2008
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Short and Shallow or Long and Deep
magonomics
January 25, 2008
The combination of aggressive Federal Reserve rate cuts and Washington’s fiscal stimulus would suggest officials believe a recession has begun. The media also seems to be playing up the recession story. It would seem like a forgone conclusion, but it is not, no matter how loud the talking heads on TV scream about it or how many times the word rece…
Short and Shallow or Long and Deep
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Reviewed by magonomics
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January 25, 2008
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G7 Economies are Slowing But Japan is in a Real Pickle
magonomics
January 18, 2008
There is little doubt that the G7 economies are slowing. Recession fears have mounted the most in the US, where policymakers are responding with both monetary and fiscal stimulus. Canada has eased monetary policy and will most likely do so again next week. There has been some fiscal assistance to local governments where the economy depends on a si…
G7 Economies are Slowing But Japan is in a Real Pickle
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Reviewed by magonomics
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January 18, 2008
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The Elusive Meaning of Jargon
magonomics
January 11, 2008
Frequently the cottage industry, that includes journalists and economists, come up with post hoc explanations for economic phenomenon, using words and phrases which after a while lose much of their original significance. Examples last year included yen-carry trades and risk-aversion. Now the words recession and stagflation are being bandied about,…
The Elusive Meaning of Jargon
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Reviewed by magonomics
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January 11, 2008
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