The Swiss National Bank has turned more aggressive in its intervention and it appears they have followed up yesterday's bouts with another one today, though with somewhat diminished effect. In addition to bidding the market higher and coming in more than once, the other way the SNB has turned more aggressive is that it also appears to have intervened against the US dollar as well. The SNB's comments had suggested the focus was strictly on the euro-franc cross.
That it intervened on the dollar suggests its line of attack may be more the trade-weighted index. Yesterday before the intervention, the BOE's trade-weighted index of the Swiss franc (a readily available proxy) rose to its highest level in more than three months yesterday--which was roughly 1 standard deviation above its 100-day moving average. The intervention has succeeded and today's operation feels more like a "mopping up exercise" and underscoring the SNB's resolve. The SNB-induced sell-off of the Swiss franc has knock-on effects on several other currencies. First, because of the intervention on the dollar, SNB intervention weighs on the euro, which from the finance ministers point of view is not a wholly undesirable. Second, because of the residual Swiss franc exposure in central Europe, the Polish zloty and Hungarian forint are benefitting. The zloty has also been aided today by unexpectedly robust May retail sales (+1. % year-over-year vs expectations for -0.5%). Third, to the extent that the Swedish krona has been sensitive to developments in the Baltics, good news for Hungary and Poland is good news for Sweden. The Swedish krona is the best performing G10 currency.
That it intervened on the dollar suggests its line of attack may be more the trade-weighted index. Yesterday before the intervention, the BOE's trade-weighted index of the Swiss franc (a readily available proxy) rose to its highest level in more than three months yesterday--which was roughly 1 standard deviation above its 100-day moving average. The intervention has succeeded and today's operation feels more like a "mopping up exercise" and underscoring the SNB's resolve. The SNB-induced sell-off of the Swiss franc has knock-on effects on several other currencies. First, because of the intervention on the dollar, SNB intervention weighs on the euro, which from the finance ministers point of view is not a wholly undesirable. Second, because of the residual Swiss franc exposure in central Europe, the Polish zloty and Hungarian forint are benefitting. The zloty has also been aided today by unexpectedly robust May retail sales (+1. % year-over-year vs expectations for -0.5%). Third, to the extent that the Swedish krona has been sensitive to developments in the Baltics, good news for Hungary and Poland is good news for Sweden. The Swedish krona is the best performing G10 currency.
SNB
![SNB]()
Reviewed by magonomics
on
June 25, 2009
Rating:
