FX Quiet on Monday in August

The US dollar is trading quietly within the ranges seen before the weekend ahead of tomorrow’s FOMC meeting. The BOJ concludes its meeting tomorrow, but the speculation has tended to focus on renewed asset purchases by the Federal Reserve, especially in the aftermath of the disappointing July employment figures.

The euro has been confined to less than a half cent range, though near-term the $1.3230-$1.3330 range looks likely to contain the single currency. The greenback put a little space between it and the JPY84.80-JPY85.00 support area, with the help of Japanese importers, but the resistance in the JPY85.8-JPY86.00 needs to be overcome to improve the tone. Meanwhile, sterling is consolidating just below the $1.60 level. It has tried three times now (once in North America before the weekend, in Asia last night and in Europe earlier today). It looks posed for another attempt in North America today and if it fails, there is a risk of a somewhat deeper setback toward $1.5850 before renewed buying is seen.

Equities are generally firmer, with Japan’s Nikkei an exception with a 0.7% loss today. The MSCI Asia-Pacific Index was essentially flaw. Of the main regional markets, Taiwan’s Taiex did best, rising 0.9%, with the electronics sector among the leaders. China’s Shanghai tacked on another 0.5% as it continues recover and is now up 8% in the past month, the strongest equity market in the region. Health care, basic materials and technology were the leading sectors. Financials and telecom were laggards. Foreign investors took modest profits in Korea, but the Kospi still managed to gain a third of a percent and the Korean won traded slightly higher. Equity buying is stronger in Europe, where the major bourses are up between 1.25%-1.50%,led by the oil and gas, utilities and consumer services. Financials are fully participating in today’s advance. After paring back the job induced losses before the weekend, the US S&P 500 is expected to open around 0.3% higher.

Global bond markets are quiet with most benchmark 10-year yields +/- 1 bp. The notable exception is the 10-year JGB where the yield fell 4 bp to just above 1.0%. A number of local banks forecast a more sustained break of the 1% floor and news of China’s strong appetite in June (JPY456 bln or ~$5.3 bln) after strong buying in May also boosted sentiment. That said, most of China’s buying was short-term bills, but were actually net sellers of Japanese bonds (JPY51.6 bln after buying JPY40.4 bln in May). The 2-year US-German spread, which has been tracking the euro-dollar has not extended the the pre-weekend widening. It stands at 22 .5 bp currently and traded roughly between 17 and 24 bp last week.