UK Tuition Debate Begins

British press call it a hung parliament, but in countries it would be thought of a coalition government. And today is the first challenge to the UK coalition government and it is likely to pass the controversial bill to raise college tuition fees.

The political cost may be to see the Lib-Dem support continue to erode as it has since the election and at some point cause strain in the Lib-Dems to ensure they preserve a viable political entity. It may also show the failure of Labour leadership, which had in 2004 proposed its own tuition fee increase after promising not to. Labour is likely to vote against the government's proposal.

The BBC reports that at least 12 Lib Dems will vote against the measure and 18 in favor. The are another 25 Lib Dem MPs that either will abstain or have not yet declared. Three Tory members could vote against their party and several more will likely abstain. The 12 MPs from Northern Ireland will likely vote with Labour against the government.

The Tory/Lib-Dem coalition enjoys an 83 seat majority. After five hours of debate the voting is expected to begin around 17:30 GMT/12:30 EDT. Barring an unexpected defeat of the measure, cable is likely to reflect the general dollar direction. Against the euro-sterling has broken down this week, reversing last week's rally. Look for a breakout of the GBP0.8440 to GBP0.8350 range to signal the direction of the next 1-2% move.