Dollar Down, Mostly

The US dollar has come under pressure, but well within the recent ranges, as the break of the greenback's upside momentum this week is slowly encouraging the bears to re-emerge.   The FOMC minutes, which got so much ink play, discussed exit strategies but not the key for investors--timing. 

Weaker than expected Japanese GDP figures for the Jan-Mar and a downward revision in the prior quarter suggests the Japanese economy may have been recession-bound prior to the tragedy-for which the nuclear crisis still does not have closure and the power outage may get worse before getting better. 

The dollar tested JPY82, The 5 and 20-day moving averages have crossed to the upside for the dollar against yen.   The next upside objective near JPY82.50 and then JPY82.25.  More inclined to use the yen as the short leg of cross than play it against the dollar, in what I would still recognize as a weak dollar environment. 

UK retail sales was stronger than expected, but I am not embracing this as a sign that the worst is past the UK.  Warm weather, The Wedding (in particular that dress, which now has it's own Wikipedia page...a sure sign of greatness), and the Easter distortions all likely contributed.    Sterling pushes through $1.6200 and potential toward $1.6250 or so before the weekend, but the $1.6300 area is the real cap. 

The euro recovered smartly in the European morning today from the decline in Asia that took the single currency back toward $1.4200.  The $1.4300-50 area remains the immediate hurdle, and I am not sure the market has the strength today.    Meanwhile, the ECB has raised the decibel of its objection to Greek restructuring (soft or hard), for which there is not an agreement among the fin mins.