The Coming Push: France

Many investors understandably have not focused on France. The threat of scandal in Spain, the need for yet another round of government support for Italy's third largest bank and the country's upcoming election have commanded attention. What seems to have been a free ride for France may be coming to an end.

Even though the German economy contracted twice as much as the French economy in Q4, we learned this week, the implications for France are greater. Recent data suggests that the German economy has stabilized and may be expanding albeit slowly this quarter. French data continues to disappoint. 

This is particularly important because the French government's growth forecast for this year is optimistic, well above the consensus.  It was on the basis of the optimism that the Hollande government forecast that its deficit would fall to 3% of GDP, as the EU requires. 

Following news that included the nineteenth consecutive monthly increase in French joblessness (Dec) and the larger than expected contraction in Q4, the French government will likely soon cut is 2013 GDP forecasts.  The issue is whether it does so before or after the EC updates its forecasts at the end of next week.  Currently the EC projects 0.4% growth in France, half of the government's forecast.

Hollande has sold the tax hikes and spending cuts on the basis that they were necessary to reached the 3% deficit target.   Senior officials in the Hollande government, including Finance Minister Moscovici,  are admitting, just six weeks into the new year, that the 3% target will be overshot.   The push back was nearly immediate.  Asumussen, the German member of the ECB's board, was crystal clear:  France and Germany have a special responsibility to meet the 3% target. 

Perhaps if one were sitting in the Elysee Palace, EU Commissioner Rehn's comments earlier this week that some members could be granted more time to bring the deficits in line with EU targets could apply to France.  However, it is not clear whether France would be understood to have met the conditionality; namely a program in place to correct public finances.  

Hollande is under pressure to take additional remedial action.  One area that he is being forced by circumstances to address is the pension system which runs a large deficit.  Some reports suggest Hollande is preparing proposals that include decoupling pensions from inflation.  Pension reforms undermined Sarkozy's support and Hollande's support has waned.  

In terms of policy, outside of the hike of  the marginal tax rate of high income earners and the modification of the higher pension age introduced by Sarkozy, Hollande's policies as a Socialist, do not seem that different.  The modest liberalization of the labor market seems perfectly consistent with the neo-liberal agenda.  Perhaps Hollande has up until now relied more on tax increases than the right would have done, but that path appears to have been nearly exhausted and spending cuts loom. 

Investors still appear to regard French bonds as slightly better yielding German bunds. Over the past 60-days, the yield of the 2-year notes (of France and Germany) move in the same direct 96% of the time.  The 10-year yields move together 93% of the time.  French yields are inversely correlated to Italian yields, especially in the 2-year area, where the correlation is -63% (vs -11% in the 10 year sector).  French bond yields are also inversely correlated with Spanish bonds at -43%.  However, the correlation of 10-year bonds is zero, but trending up form -35% in mid-December. 

Investors who share our misgivings about France should continue to monitor these correlations.  A break down in the French-German correlation and an increase in the French-periphery correlation would suggest a new phase of euro area tension is at hand.