Lib-Dems must Seize the Moment or Become Irrelevant (Again)

The weekend election in Germany is the hot political topic, but the junior member of the UK governing coalition holding its annual conference and it can influence the future of UK politics. 

With the economy enjoying an unexpectedly robust growth, one may be forgiven thinking it would bode well for the Liberal Democrats as for the Tories. But alas, the fortunes of the Lib-Dems have waned, and if the party does not change course, it risks an embarrassing defeat in the next parliamentary elections, which are slated for the spring of 2015.

The numbers are stark: An internal party poll reported found that three quarters of the voters would not consider voting for the Lib-Dems. In 2010, they won 57 parliament seats with 23% of the popular vote. Now only 10% say they would vote for a Lib-Dem candidate if the election were tomorrow.

Adding insult to injury, the internal poll found that almost half the Lib-Dem members think that its leader and Deputy Prime Minister Clegg is leading the party in the wrong direction.

If Clegg's strategy has been and continues to be to tie the Lib-Dem wagon to the Tories, maybe the opposite offers a better course. Business Secretary Cable's speech to the Lib-Dem convention shows the bridge to Labour: "responsible capitalism", but which both seem to mean stiffer penalties for corporate malfeasance and more rights for lower paid employees.  

Within the governing coalition the Lib-Dems have lost their separate identity and have squandered their political fortunes.  They are often blamed when things go wrong and get none of the credit for successes. The only way to leverage their 10% stake of the electorate is to enter into talks to form a coalition with Labour. Politics, they say, makes strange bedfellows and the British are no exception.   

The Financial Times reports that the some parts of the Lib-Dem leadership want to keep the preserve the option of forming a coalition with Labour after the 2015 election.  That is a riskier strategy than breaking now. With every month that the polls show support for the Lib-Dems slipping, it loses leverage.  Better to strike now with the 10% than wait for the local and European parliament elections next year that will likely further diminish its bargaining power.   On the current trajectory, it looks likely to slip into single digits and irrelevancy.   

The narrative can be straightforward and very British.  Cameron, like Churchill, was the needed leader, as Britain faced dark days.  But, the crisis has passed and new leadership is needed.  The agenda is not about survival, but the construction of a fairer and more prosperous Britain.  And the Lib-Dems are needed to temper the extremes of both parties.  

This is not a prediction of what will happen as much as a recognition that the Lib-Dems are at a cross roads.  Indeed, we highlight the road that is in fact unlikely to be taken.  But just as a retort often comes to the young wit after the door closed, so too with the benefit of hindsight, this week's conference may go recalled for the opportunity that was not seized.