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Cool Video: Must See Now--Science of Procrastination

November 30, 2013
This Cool Video comes from ASAP Science on YouTube.  On one hand, this less-than-three minute video is about managing our responsibilities.  On the other hand, the biases discussed appear to be part of the human condition.  This suggests that certain thinking patterns may also be evident in behavior of investors, which is part of what behavioral …
Cool Video: Must See Now--Science of Procrastination Cool Video: Must See Now--Science of Procrastination Reviewed by Marc Chandler on November 30, 2013 Rating: 5
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Currency Positioning and Technical Outlook: Dollar and Yen Downside Risks Persist Currency Positioning and Technical Outlook: Dollar and Yen Downside Risks Persist Reviewed by Marc Chandler on November 30, 2013 Rating: 5
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Emerging Markets: What has Changed

November 29, 2013
(from my colleagues Dr.Win Thin and Ilan Solot)

1) The Czech central bank (CNB) gave us some details about its intervention program 2) Tensions are escalating again with China’s new East China Sea Air Defence Identification Zone (ADIZ) initiative 3) Protests in Thailand are escalating 4) Brazil risks are tilting back towards the negative side …
Emerging Markets: What has Changed Emerging Markets: What has Changed Reviewed by Marc Chandler on November 29, 2013 Rating: 5
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Dollar Weak, but Little Changed

November 29, 2013
There has been much news for investors to digest, but the foreign exchange market is becalmed, though the US dollar remains vulnerable.   While most of the major currencies are little changed, the Norwegian krona stands out as an exception.  It has shed almost 0.7% against the dollar and nearly the same against the euro.  
The ostensible cause was…
Dollar Weak, but Little Changed Dollar Weak, but Little Changed Reviewed by Marc Chandler on November 29, 2013 Rating: 5
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Great Graphic: Rent Relative to House Prices in High Income Countries

November 29, 2013
This Great Graphic was posted by Steven Perlberg on Business Insider. Drawing on research by the IMF's Hites Ahir and Prakash Loungani, the chart compares the house-price-to-rent ratio compared with the historical average.  This is a standard measure of valuation.  
Clearly by such a metric, the recovery in the housing market has been uneven. …
Great Graphic: Rent Relative to House Prices in High Income Countries Great Graphic: Rent Relative to House Prices in High Income Countries Reviewed by Marc Chandler on November 29, 2013 Rating: 5
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Dollar Soft, Licking Wounds

November 28, 2013
The US dollar is continuing to sport a soft profile.   In recent sessions, the dollar's weakness has been concentrated against the euro and sterling.  It has been better bid against the yen, dollar-bloc and many emerging market currencies.  However, today it is down across the board, and is essentially flat against the Japanese yen around JPY1…
Dollar Soft, Licking Wounds Dollar Soft, Licking Wounds Reviewed by Marc Chandler on November 28, 2013 Rating: 5
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Great Graphic: ECB Options

November 28, 2013
The financial conditions in Europe do not appear supportive for the regional economy that has graduated from contraction to stagnation.  Money supply growth is slow.  Lending to businesses and households continues to contract.  The decline in inflation (disinflation) is threatening to morph into falling prices (deflation) in a growing part of the …
Great Graphic: ECB Options Great Graphic: ECB Options Reviewed by Marc Chandler on November 28, 2013 Rating: 5
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Implications of Latvia Government Collapse

November 27, 2013
The Prime Minister of Latvia resigned late yesterday.  Dombrovskis stepped down to take responsibility for the country's largest disaster since independence from the Soviet Union.  The collapse of the supermarket roof in Riga killed more than 50 people, according to press reports.  
The president can push for a snap election or try to form a ne…
Implications of Latvia Government Collapse Implications of Latvia Government Collapse Reviewed by Marc Chandler on November 27, 2013 Rating: 5
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Dollar Stepped on by Euro and Sterling

November 27, 2013
The general divergence evident over the past couple of weeks is on display today.  The US dollar is weaker against the European currencies, including the euro and sterling, which are trading at new 4-week and 10-month highs, respectively.  The greenback is mostly firmer against the yen, dollar-bloc currencies and many emerging markets currencies.�…
Dollar Stepped on by Euro and Sterling Dollar Stepped on by Euro and Sterling Reviewed by Marc Chandler on November 27, 2013 Rating: 5
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ECB Outlook: Mostly Thunder, Little Chance of Rain

November 26, 2013
The ECB meets next week.  After cutting the repo rate by 25 bp earlier this month, and officials playing up the scope for additional action, expectations are elevated.  However, when everything is said and done, more will likely be said than done.  Specifically, barring a significant surprise on the CPI due at the end of this week or some kind of …
ECB Outlook: Mostly Thunder, Little Chance of Rain ECB Outlook: Mostly Thunder, Little Chance of Rain Reviewed by Marc Chandler on November 26, 2013 Rating: 5
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Great Graphic: Maufacturing Employment Surveys and the Payroll Growth

November 26, 2013
This Great Graphic from Bloomberg was tweeted by Michael McDonough.  It traces the employment component of various Fed and ISM surveys and the government's non-farm payroll  report.  
The survey results appear to be somewhat more volatile than the official jobs report, but do capture the broad trends. It is difficult to make the case that the …
Great Graphic: Maufacturing Employment Surveys and the Payroll Growth Great Graphic: Maufacturing Employment Surveys and the Payroll Growth Reviewed by Marc Chandler on November 26, 2013 Rating: 5
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FX Becalmed as Euro Recoups Yesterday's Losses

November 26, 2013
The US dollar has mostly been confined to yesterday's ranges.  This means there has not been follow through buying after yesterday's rather unexpected gain.     The news stream has been light.  Global equity markets are mostly lower and bond markets firmer.

The euro rose to a four-session high just above $1.3570, helped by supportive commen…
FX Becalmed as Euro Recoups Yesterday's Losses FX Becalmed as Euro Recoups Yesterday's Losses Reviewed by Marc Chandler on November 26, 2013 Rating: 5
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Great Graphic: Kennedy Assassination Conspiracy Theories

November 25, 2013
Conspiracy theories abound.  Recently, the conspiracy behind the assassination of Lincoln was the subject of a major motion picture.  The assassination of John Kennedy 50 year ago remains shrouded in numerous conspiracy theories.

The American fascination with it does not appear satiated.  Yet, what this Great Graphic from the Economist shows is th…
Great Graphic: Kennedy Assassination Conspiracy Theories Great Graphic: Kennedy Assassination Conspiracy Theories Reviewed by Marc Chandler on November 25, 2013 Rating: 5
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Two On-Shoring Developments

November 25, 2013
The attractiveness of the US as a point of production has been an important point we have emphasized over the past several years.  Making Sense of the Dollar:  Exposing Dangerous Myths about Trade and Foreign Exchange (2009) anticipated and spent some time explaining why this was likely.

Subsequently there have been numerous corporate announcement…
Two On-Shoring Developments Two On-Shoring Developments Reviewed by Marc Chandler on November 25, 2013 Rating: 5
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Emerging Markets: Preview of the Week Ahead

November 25, 2013
 (from my colleagues Dr. Win Thin and Ilan Solot) EM currencies are coming off of a soft week, and are starting off this week on a softer note as well. The best performers are IDR (+1% vs. USD over the past week), TRY (+1%), and ZAR (+1%). The worst were RUB (-1.4% vs. USD), BRL (-1.25%), THB (-1.2%), and MYR (-1%). EM equities were mostly weak…
Emerging Markets: Preview of the Week Ahead Emerging Markets: Preview of the Week Ahead Reviewed by Marc Chandler on November 25, 2013 Rating: 5
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Consolidating USD's Recent Losses

November 25, 2013
The US dollar is firm against most of the major currencies, consolidating the losses from the end of last week and extending its gains against the yen to almost JPY102.    The weekend nuclear deal with Iran has seen a spurred a sharp drop in oil prices and may be helping buoy stocks.   A sustained fall can boost household purchasing power or profi…
Consolidating USD's Recent Losses Consolidating USD's Recent Losses Reviewed by Marc Chandler on November 25, 2013 Rating: 5
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Developments Cast Pall Over Dollar

November 24, 2013
The near-term fundamental considerations for the dollar have turned more negative.  Two developments last week that had bolstered the dollar are being rethought.  
First, the Bloomberg report that cited to unidentified people close to the ECB playing up the risk of a negative deposit rate, has not been confirmed or replicated by other news agencie…
Developments Cast Pall Over Dollar Developments Cast Pall Over Dollar Reviewed by Marc Chandler on November 24, 2013 Rating: 5
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Five Key Posts on Marc to Market in Past Week: Did You See Them?

November 24, 2013
1.The Thermidor:  Push Back Against GermanyDiscusses the recent developments that seem to try to check Germany.  It also suggests that while the political left has been quiet despite the high unemployment social costs of both the crisis and recovery, there is a split on the political right.  
2.  Summers Expects a Long Winter  Explores some of the …
Five Key Posts on Marc to Market in Past Week: Did You See Them? Five Key Posts on Marc to Market in Past Week: Did You See Them? Reviewed by Marc Chandler on November 24, 2013 Rating: 5
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Cool Video: The Story of Our Planet

November 23, 2013
This Cool Video is a fun narrative about the human experience on earth with time measured by the speed of hair growth. It is is succinct (a little more than 2.5 minutes) from Minute Earth's You Tube video.  

Cool Video: The Story of Our Planet Cool Video: The Story of Our Planet Reviewed by Marc Chandler on November 23, 2013 Rating: 5
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Currency Positioning and Technical Outlook: Diverging Dollar Performance Set to Continue Currency Positioning and Technical Outlook: Diverging Dollar Performance Set to Continue Reviewed by Marc Chandler on November 23, 2013 Rating: 5
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