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Great Graphic: Equity Performance in US, Europe, Japan

October 30, 2014
This Great Graphic, created on Bloomberg, shows performance of three major indices since the start of the year.  The white line is the US S&P 500.    It has clearly outperformed Dow Jones Stoxx 600 (yellow line) and the Nikkei (green line).
Specifically, year-to-date the S&P has risen 7.2%, the Nikkei has fallen 3.9%, while the Dow Jones S…
Great Graphic: Equity Performance in US, Europe, Japan Great Graphic: Equity Performance in US, Europe, Japan Reviewed by Marc Chandler on October 30, 2014 Rating: 5
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Emerging Markets: What has Changed

October 30, 2014
(from my colleagues Dr Win Thin and Ilan Solot)
1) Indonesian Finance Minister Bambang Brodjonegoro said the government will probably raise subsidized fuel prices before year-end  2) Dilma Rousseff was re-elected as President of Brazil  3) Brazil’s central bank delivered a hawkish surprise too on Wednesday,hiking rates by 25 bp to 11.25%  4) Prote…
Emerging Markets: What has Changed Emerging Markets: What has Changed Reviewed by Marc Chandler on October 30, 2014 Rating: 5
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Focus on Fed, but New Inputs for BOJ and ECB

October 29, 2014
The market is generally expecting a dovish FOMC statement.  We have argued that it will most likely be little changed, except for modification relating to the asset purchases. Keen interest will be on its references to inflation.  
While the breakeven rates have fallen, the 5-year/5-year forward which the Fed seems to prefer as a measures of  infla…
Focus on Fed, but New Inputs for BOJ and ECB Focus on Fed, but New Inputs for BOJ and ECB Reviewed by Marc Chandler on October 29, 2014 Rating: 5
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Dollar Narrowly Mixed as Fed Awaited

October 29, 2014
(from my colleagues Dr. Win Thin and Ilan Solot)
The dollar is mixed against the majors. The euro and pound were little changed, at $1.2730 and $1.6130. The dollar is outperforming against the Scandies, especially the Norwegian krone, but it is flat against the yen at ¥108.10. The Canadian dollar and Australian dollar are outperforming on the da…
Dollar Narrowly Mixed as Fed Awaited Dollar Narrowly Mixed as Fed Awaited Reviewed by Marc Chandler on October 29, 2014 Rating: 5
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Great Graphic: Sterling Testing Neck Line of Head and Shoulders Bottom

October 28, 2014
The unexpected drop in September durable goods orders and weak details, play on fears the US economy is losing momentum. The dollar was pushed lower. This enabled sterling to test the neck line of a head and shoulders bottom pattern that we had pointed out.   It is depicted below in the Great Graphicfrom Bloomberg.  
The left shoulder was carved …
Great Graphic: Sterling Testing Neck Line of Head and Shoulders Bottom Great Graphic: Sterling Testing Neck Line of Head and Shoulders Bottom Reviewed by Marc Chandler on October 28, 2014 Rating: 5
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Great Graphic: Slowing of World Trade Growth and Globalization

October 28, 2014
This Great Graphic is from the Dutch Bureau of Economic Policy Analysis (CPB), and was posted by Steve Goldstein at MarketWatch.  It shows the three-month average year-over-year growth rate of global trade.

The growth of trade slowed dramatically in from the second half of 2010 to the end of 2011.  The pace of growth has steadied around 2% over the…
Great Graphic: Slowing of World Trade Growth and Globalization Great Graphic: Slowing of World Trade Growth and Globalization Reviewed by Marc Chandler on October 28, 2014 Rating: 5
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Dollar Dithers as QE Withers

October 28, 2014
The US dollar is narrowly mixed in quiet turnover.  The historic FOMC meeting that announces the end of QE is finally at hand.  This marks a new phase, post-QE, for monetary policy, and the US economy more broadly.  
Although there had been some jitters, investors have come around to expect the Federal Reserve to announce its commitment to end QE t…
Dollar Dithers as QE Withers Dollar Dithers as QE Withers Reviewed by Marc Chandler on October 28, 2014 Rating: 5
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Emerging Markets Preview for the Week Ahead

October 27, 2014
(from my colleagues Dr. Win Thin and Ilan Solot)
Global risk-off sentiment and the reelection of Dilma Rousseff as the Brazilian president is setting EM off on the back foot to start the week. However, the lack of large moves in the dollar could mean that negative sentiment will be contained to equity markets. Aside from positioning adjustment fo…
Emerging Markets Preview for the Week Ahead Emerging Markets Preview for the Week Ahead Reviewed by Marc Chandler on October 27, 2014 Rating: 5
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Cool Video: Bloomberg's First Up show from Hong Kong with Angie Lau

October 27, 2014
During this extended business trip, I had the privilege of being interviewed by Angie Lau of Bloomberg e have a TV. We have a wide ranging discussion in a little more than 4.5 minutes. Most of the key interpretative points I make in the interview will be familiar to regular readers of this blog.
1. Policy is driven by the centrists, Yellen, Fisc…
Cool Video: Bloomberg's First Up show from Hong Kong with Angie Lau Cool Video: Bloomberg's First Up show from Hong Kong with Angie Lau Reviewed by Marc Chandler on October 27, 2014 Rating: 5
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Eventful Week Ahead

October 26, 2014
The week ahead is eventful. Investors will learn of the results of review and stress test of European banks.  The Federal Reserve meets, as do three other central banks (Bank of Japan, Sweden's Riksbank and the Reserve Bank of New Zealand.  Important elections were held in Ukraine and Brazil over the weekend.
In terms of data, the highlights in…
Eventful Week Ahead Eventful Week Ahead Reviewed by Marc Chandler on October 26, 2014 Rating: 5
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The Dollar: More of the Same

October 25, 2014
The US dollar gained on most of the major foreign currencies last week, but the overall tone, leaving aside the yen, was largely consolidative in nature. The greenback was soft in the first half of the week but recovered in the second half.  
The Australian and Canadian dollars were the only major currencies that managed to hold onto some of their …
The Dollar: More of the Same The Dollar: More of the Same Reviewed by Marc Chandler on October 25, 2014 Rating: 5
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Cool Video: Do You Only Use 10% of Your Brain?

October 25, 2014
This Cool Video from DNews offers an entertaining three minute refutation of the widespread but mistaken notion that people only use 10% of their brains. From an evolutionary point of view, it makes sense that there would not significant waste.  It stands to reason that such a vital and complex organ has some built in redundancies.  It also makes …
Cool Video: Do You Only Use 10% of Your Brain? Cool Video: Do You Only Use 10% of Your Brain? Reviewed by Marc Chandler on October 25, 2014 Rating: 5
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Ebola, EU Politics and Brazil's Election in Focus

October 24, 2014
(from my colleagues Dr. Win Thin and Ilan Solot)
The dollar is little changed on the day against the majors. The euro is trading at $1.2650 and the pound at $1.6050. The dollar is just above the ¥108.0 against the yen. 
There was also little notable price action in the EM space except the ruble, which continues to underperform and make new all-time…
Ebola, EU Politics and Brazil's Election in Focus Ebola, EU Politics and Brazil's Election in Focus Reviewed by Marc Chandler on October 24, 2014 Rating: 5
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A Few Recent Provocative Posts

October 23, 2014
While on an extended business trip in Asia, updates on the blog will be sporadic.  Rather than focus so much on the price action, I have been sketching out a broader interpretative framework.  Here are some recent posts in this vein.
1.How much of a headwind is the dollar?We show that on a broad, trade-weighted, basis, adjusted for inflation, the d…
A Few Recent Provocative Posts A Few Recent Provocative Posts Reviewed by Marc Chandler on October 23, 2014 Rating: 5
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Emerging Markets: What has Changed

October 23, 2014
(from my colleagues Dr. Win Thin and Ilan Solot)

1)        India’s equity index continues to outperform following Prime Minister Modi’s decision to end fuel subsidies on diesel 2)        On Friday, Moody's cut Russia by a notch to Baa2 and kept the outlook at negative 3)        Russian state oil company Rosneft is reportedly seeking over RUB2 trl…
Emerging Markets: What has Changed Emerging Markets: What has Changed Reviewed by Marc Chandler on October 23, 2014 Rating: 5
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