The US dollar is broadly lower, dragged down by the escalation of the
conflict in Yemen, month and quarter end position adjustments and the ongoing
technical correction following last week's FOMC meeting. The euro,
yen and Canadian dollar are at new highs for the week. The sharp rally in
oil prices is helping spur the short squeeze in the Canadian dollar, and
appears to be lifting the Norwegian krone as well. Oil prices are up
4-5%, on supply disruption worries, but also in recognition that this is part
of a bigger conflict between Saudi Arabia and Iran.
Equities are experiencing follow through selling after yesterday's 1.5%
slide in the S&P 500 and the 2.4% drop in the NASDAQ. Biotech and
chip makers were especially hard hit. The technical damage is beginning
to mount. with the S&P 500 closing on its lows, well below the 50-day
average. It is set to gap lower at the opening. The
MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell about 0.8% and the Dow Jones Stoxx 600, is
following its worst session in two months yesterday with further losses
today. The 1.3% decline is being led by financials and information
technology. The energy sector is the only one that is higher on the day.
Bond markets are mixed. The dramatic decline in equities and
safe haven bid are helping US Treasuries shrug off the poor reception to the
five year note sale yesterday. Core bond yields are mostly softer and
peripheral European yields slightly higher.
The geopolitical backdrop and position adjustments at month and
quarter-end are rendering what economic data are being reported rather
inconsequential. Of note, the monetary conditions in the euro area
continued to improve. Annual M3 growth rose 4.0% in February from 3.7% in
January. Lending is improving, and this is what help produce a larger
take down of TLTRO funds made available last week. Private sector loan
growth has been declining for almost three years in the eurozone. In February,
it was 0.1% below year ago levels after -0.2% in January. Lending to
households in positive and lending to business may be turning around this
month.
The UK reported a much stronger than expected February retail sales data.
Sterling ticked up on the news, but sentiment is checked by uncertainty
surrounding the May election and ideas that a BOE rate hike is still more than
a year away. Last week's Fed-spike high was near $1.5165. Sterling
has not been above $1.50 this week and above the 20-day moving average comes in
near $1.5020. Sterling has not traded above that average since March
3.
Headline retail sales rose 0.7%, and the January series was revised to
0.1% from -0.3%. The market had forecast a 0.4% increase.
However, the increase in sales comes at the cost of falling prices. The
retail sales deflator fell 3.6% from a year ago, the largest drop since the
time series began almost 20 years ago. It warns of the risk that UK CPI
can fall into negative territory as well.
The brinkmanship between Greece and
its official creditors continues, but next week is seen another critical window. The Greek government simply has to come up with a compelling list of reforms. Its first two tries could not be taken
seriously. Employing tourists and students
to report tax evasion undercover may be an interesting idea and might even be worth
an experiment, but it cannot be a compelling key program. Meanwhile, the officials efforts to block
Greek banks from financing the government through additional T-bill purchases,
the ECB did grant Greek banks their biggest increase in ELA borrowing (~1.1 bln
euro to ~71 bln) to bolster their liquidity.
US economic data is light; consisting
of weekly initial jobless claims and the KC Fed March manufacturing index. Markit reports its flash reading of service PMI
and composite. Tomorrow the US is
expected to revise Q4 GDP slightly higher.
Yesterday’s disappointing durable
goods orders spurred some economists to cut Q1 GDP forecasts toward 1.5%. Broadly speaking this is setting the similar
pattern as last year when soft Q1 GDP was followed by a clear acceleration.
Three emerging market central banks meet--
South Africa, Czech, and Mexico. None is
expected to change rates. South Africa
may increase its inflation forecast. The
Czech central bank can be expected to reaffirm the CZK peg. Mexico
is widely expected to keep its overnight rate at 3%.
Dollar Slumps and Oil Jumps
Reviewed by Marc Chandler
on
March 26, 2015
Rating: