ICYMI: Five Thought Provoking Posts

The bull case for the dollar:    Here are the arguments behind our expectations that before the euro bear market is over it will retest the record lows registered in 2000.  This simply requires the dollar rally to be on par with the rallies associated with Reagan and Clinton.  

Inside Greece:  Politics within the Syriza coalition in Greece may determine the country's fate more than its negotiations with the official creditors.  

Fed funds target range not fixed point:  There has been a subtle but significant in how the Fed will conduct monetary policy. Previously it targeted a fixed level for Fed funds by influencing short-term liquidity.  Now it targets a range. The current range is 0-25 bp.    The first rate hike, which still seems more likely to be delivered in June (though September is possible as well), would lift the Funds rate target range to 25-50 bp.  

Geostrategic risks and Russia:  Accept a three points:  The confrontation between Russia and the US/Europe is not over.  Putin is rational actor.  Putin seeks a buffer zone or a sphere of influence. His tactics (since at least 2008) have produced some successes, albeit for a cost.  Here we look at two possible flash points.   One in Ukraine to achieve a land bridge which arguably is strategically necessary.  The other is in Estonia, a NATO member with a large ethnic Russian population.   The former is more likely than the latter in the immediate period ahead.  

German wages:  A wage settlement in one of Germany's wealthier states is a promising development.  If German unit labor costs rose at a faster pace, that would help the competitive efforts of nearly every one else in the Europe.  It would allow others to reduce the competitive gap with Germany without unit labor costs being squeezed as hard.  Reducing unit labor costs is a form of private sector austerity and depresses aggregate demand.