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New Year Reads Five

December 31, 2015
1.My look ahead at the major drivers of the investment climate in 2016
2.A piece co-authored with a colleague that compares and contrasts CPI in the US, Japan, UK, and EMU, with some surprising insight
3.While the US and Europe often had diverging perceptions of threats, even during the Cold War, the gap appears to be increasing vis a vis Russia and…
New Year Reads Five New Year Reads Five Reviewed by Marc Chandler on December 31, 2015 Rating: 5
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2015 Draws to a Close

December 31, 2015
Many financial centers in Asia and Europe are on holiday today, and those that are open, are experiencing a minimum of activity. Turnover may pick up briefly in the North American morning, but conditions will remain thin and only those who need to transact will.  
The US reports weekly jobless claims and the Chicago PMI.  The holiday-shortened week…
2015 Draws to a Close 2015 Draws to a Close Reviewed by Marc Chandler on December 31, 2015 Rating: 5
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Yen is Lower for Fourth Year, Euro for Second

December 30, 2015
The US dollar will finish 2015 higher against both the euro and yen.  Sometimes those of us who follow the economic and financial news closely can get caught up with the short-term fluctuations.  As traders that is what we do.  . Investors, however, can take a longer look at developments.  
Taking a step back, we note that this is the fourth consec…
Yen is Lower for Fourth Year, Euro for Second Yen is Lower for Fourth Year, Euro for Second Reviewed by Marc Chandler on December 30, 2015 Rating: 5
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Quiet but Choppy Markets as Activity Winds Down

December 30, 2015
The foreign exchange market is becalmed, leaving the US dollar narrowly mixed in uneventful and light turnover. The euro has been confined to less than a third of a cent range. Yesterday it briefly dipped below its 20-day moving average for the first time since the ECB met earlier this month. It remains in the upper half of the two-range ($1.08…
Quiet but Choppy Markets as Activity Winds Down Quiet but Choppy Markets as Activity Winds Down Reviewed by Marc Chandler on December 30, 2015 Rating: 5
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Cool Video: Big Picture Dollar View and Comparative Inflation

December 29, 2015
I had the privilege of talking with Scarlet Fu and Joe Weisenthal on Bloomberg TV. They gave me an opportunity to discuss my big picture view of the dollar and the Obama dollar rally. While the Reagan dollar rally was driven by the policy mix, and the Clinton dollar rally was driven by the tech bubble, the Obama dollar rally is being driven by mon…
Cool Video: Big Picture Dollar View and Comparative Inflation Cool Video: Big Picture Dollar View and Comparative Inflation Reviewed by Marc Chandler on December 29, 2015 Rating: 5
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US-European Threat Perceptions Diverge

December 29, 2015
The trajectories of the monetary policy at the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank are diverging.  It is the keystone of our anticipation of further euro weakness in the year ahead.  In addition to this monetary divergence, there is a geopolitical divergence that will be of growing significance. 
At the heart of the geopolitical divergenc…
US-European Threat Perceptions Diverge US-European Threat Perceptions Diverge Reviewed by Marc Chandler on December 29, 2015 Rating: 5
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Stocks and Commodities Higher, Bonds and Dollar Mostly Lower

December 29, 2015
The US dollar is narrowly mixed. The euro and yen remain within yesterday's ranges, while sterling continues to trade heavily. The stabilization of oil prices has not lifted the Canadian dollar, while the other Antipodean currencies turn higher.

Emerging market currencies are mostly lower, though the South African rand is slightly firmer. Th…
Stocks and Commodities Higher, Bonds and Dollar Mostly Lower Stocks and Commodities Higher, Bonds and Dollar Mostly Lower Reviewed by Marc Chandler on December 29, 2015 Rating: 5
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Three Rate Differentials to Note

December 28, 2015
During this holiday period, participation is light and order-driven activity can push prices more than usual.  Investors should not let the noise and gyrations obscure the bigger picture.   We continue to place the divergence of monetary policy at the center of our narrative.     Barring a significant negative surprise from the labor market, we ex…
Three Rate Differentials to Note Three Rate Differentials to Note Reviewed by Marc Chandler on December 28, 2015 Rating: 5
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Weaker Commodities and Stocks, Firm Bonds, Mixed Dollar

December 28, 2015
Australia, New Zealand, UK markets closed for Boxing Day.  
After rallying last week, oil prices are off 2%, base and precious metals lower.
European core and peripheral bond markets are highs, with yields slipping mostly 2-3 bp. No end to the political uncertainty in Spain, but Spanish 10-year bonds are matching regional performance. 
Equities hav…
Weaker Commodities and Stocks, Firm Bonds, Mixed Dollar Weaker Commodities and Stocks, Firm Bonds, Mixed Dollar Reviewed by Marc Chandler on December 28, 2015 Rating: 5
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Dollar Outlook for the Last Week of the Year

December 26, 2015
The US dollar traded heavily in the holiday-shortened week. It slipped against all the major currencies.  The recovery in commodity prices, the new stimulus Chinese officials suggested, and the relatively high yields conspired to help lift the dollar-bloc currencies.  Them and the Swedish krona fared best.  Sterling, the Swiss franc, and Japanese …
Dollar Outlook for the Last Week of the Year Dollar Outlook for the Last Week of the Year Reviewed by Marc Chandler on December 26, 2015 Rating: 5
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Good Holiday Reads

December 24, 2015
1.  Outlook for 2016

2.  Interesting comparative look at consumer inflation (US, UK, Japan, and EMU)

3.  Great Graphic illustrating the refugee/asylum migration to Europe

4.  Great Graphic depicting how US stocks trade in December for past two decades

5.  The behavior of cartels and the outlook for oil




Disclaimer
Good Holiday Reads Good Holiday Reads Reviewed by Marc Chandler on December 24, 2015 Rating: 5
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Hump Day Update

December 23, 2015
The thinness of the order-driven capital markets is making price action that seems more inexplicable than usual. The US dollar is mixed. It has recouped all the ground it lows against the euro yesterday, as the single currency briefly dipped below $1.09 in the North American morning.  It was unable to build on yesterday's gains that had carrie…
Hump Day Update Hump Day Update Reviewed by Marc Chandler on December 23, 2015 Rating: 5
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Tuesday's Highlights

December 22, 2015
1.  China's Central Economic Work Conference is responsible for setting the annual GDP target.Although it was not formally announced, President Xi previously indicated that the goal for the economy to expand by around 6.5% a year through 2020.  More telling than the GDP target is the intentions expressed in the new slogan:  flexible monetary p…
Tuesday's Highlights Tuesday's Highlights Reviewed by Marc Chandler on December 22, 2015 Rating: 5
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