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Dollar Slips into Year End

Marc Chandler December 30, 2016

In exceptionally thin conditions that characterize the year-end markets, a reportedly computer-generated order lifted the euro from about $1.05 to a little more than $1.0650 in a few minutes early in the Asian sessions. Before European markets opened the euro drifted back toward $1.05 where buying re-emerged. Other European currencies, like the …

Dollar Slips into Year End

Reviewed by Marc Chandler on December 30, 2016 Rating: 5

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Dollar, Equities and Yields Fall

Marc Chandler December 29, 2016

In thin holiday markets, a correction to the trends seen in Q4 has materialized. The US dollar is heavy. Japanese and European equities are lower. Bonds are firmer.
Some reports try to link the moves to the unexpected weakness in the US pending home sales, but this is a stretch and merely seeks to construct a post hoc explanation for the year-e…

Dollar, Equities and Yields Fall Reviewed by Marc Chandler on December 29, 2016 Rating: 5

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Cool Video: Double Feature on Bloomberg

Marc Chandler December 28, 2016
I am finishing the year like I began it, on Bloomberg Television, talking about the dollar and Fed policy. Bloomberg has made two clips of my interview available.
In the first clip (here), I discuss the dollar. I reiterate my forecast for the the Dollar Index to head toward 120.00. The consolidation between Q2 15 and end of Q3 16 appears to m…

Cool Video: Double Feature on Bloomberg Reviewed by Marc Chandler on December 28, 2016 Rating: 5

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Short Note for Holiday Markets

Marc Chandler December 28, 2016
Economic data: Japan stands out with industrial production in Nov rising 1.5%, the most in five months. It was a little less than expected, but the expectations for Dec (2%) and Jan (2.2%) are constructive. This seems to be a function of two things: stronger exports and a cyclical function with inventories falling and shipments rising. It seems…

Short Note for Holiday Markets Reviewed by Marc Chandler on December 28, 2016 Rating: 5

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Great Graphic: Real Wages

Marc Chandler December 27, 2016
This Great Graphic caught my eye. It was tweeted by Ninja Economics. Her point was about immigration. German had much higher immigration than the UK, but also saw real wage increase of nearly 14% in the 2007-2015 period, while real wages in the UK fell nearly 10.5%.
She noted that Greece is the only developed country where real wages have colla…

Great Graphic: Real Wages Reviewed by Marc Chandler on December 27, 2016 Rating: 5

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Markets Becalmed in Wait-and-See Mode

Marc Chandler December 27, 2016
As skeleton teams return to the trading desks in New York, the US dollar is largely where they left it at the end last week. Japanese markets were open yesterday, while UK, Australia, New Zealand, Hong Kong and Canadian markets are still closed today. The Australian and New Zealand dollars are up about 0.2% from before the weekend.Sterling is tra…

Markets Becalmed in Wait-and-See Mode Reviewed by Marc Chandler on December 27, 2016 Rating: 5

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Outlook 2017: Politics to Eclipse Economics

Marc Chandler December 26, 2016
Investors are familiar with a broad set of macroeconomic variables that often drive asset prices. Many are familiar with corporate balance sheets, price-earning ratios, free cash flow, Q-ratio, and the like.
However, political factors are more difficult for investors to integrate into their analysis. Therein lies the main challenge in the year …

Outlook 2017: Politics to Eclipse Economics Reviewed by Marc Chandler on December 26, 2016 Rating: 5