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New Month, Same Drivers

January 31, 2016
On the very first trading day of the year, the Nikkei, DAX, and S&P 500 gapped lower, setting the tone to a particularly challenging month for investors. The last week and a half has been better, and this will likely carry over into the start of the new month.  Before January could slip into the history books, the Bank of Japan sprung a last-m…
New Month, Same Drivers New Month, Same Drivers Reviewed by Marc Chandler on January 31, 2016 Rating: 5
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Speculators Added to Long Yen Position Ahead of BOJ

January 30, 2016
The latest CFTC Commitment of Traders report covers the five sessions through January 26, the day before the FOMC concluded its two-day meeting and three days before the BOJ's announcement. Speculators hardly changed their positioning during the period.  There was no gross position adjustments that we call significant, a bar we set at 10k cont…
Speculators Added to Long Yen Position Ahead of BOJ Speculators Added to Long Yen Position Ahead of BOJ Reviewed by Marc Chandler on January 30, 2016 Rating: 5
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The Dollar: Now What?

January 30, 2016
The US dollar turned in a mixed performance last week. Firmer oil and commodity prices more generally helped lift the Australian and Canadian dollars, and many emerging market currencies.  These currencies initially extended their  gains ahead of the weekend in response to the Bank of Japan's surprise 20 bp cut on some excess reserves ( to -10…
The Dollar: Now What? The Dollar: Now What? Reviewed by Marc Chandler on January 30, 2016 Rating: 5
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Emerging Markets: What has Changed

January 29, 2016
1) Korea’s Financial Services Commission will introduce a so-called “omnibus account” for foreigners investing in local stocks
2) Malaysian Attorney General Apandi Ali closed the investigation into transfers of foreign money into Prime Minister Najib Razak’s personal bank accounts 3) The South African Reserve Bank increased the pace of its tightenin…
Emerging Markets: What has Changed Emerging Markets: What has Changed Reviewed by Marc Chandler on January 29, 2016 Rating: 5
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Kuroda Surprises, Introduces Negative Rates in Japan, Sinks Yen

January 29, 2016
The Bank of Japan surprised the market.  It did not expand its asset purchase plan, which was the main focus of many market participants, including ourselves. Instead, following a rash of disappointing data, the BOJ introduced negative interest rates on some excess reserves and vowed to do more if necessary.  
Today's action, like the expected …
Kuroda Surprises, Introduces Negative Rates in Japan, Sinks Yen Kuroda Surprises, Introduces Negative Rates in Japan, Sinks Yen Reviewed by Marc Chandler on January 29, 2016 Rating: 5
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Implications of Amari's Resignation

January 28, 2016
We had been tracking the budding scandal that implicated the office of Japan's Economic Minister Amari.  We had expressed our concern earlier this week that the scandal could sap Amari's office strength and be a distraction.  However, the situation unraveled quicker than we anticipated and Amari resigned earlier today.  
He is the fourth mi…
Implications of Amari's Resignation Implications of Amari's Resignation Reviewed by Marc Chandler on January 28, 2016 Rating: 5
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Dollar-Bloc Currencies Advance, Sterling Too

January 28, 2016
There is a mixed tone in the global capital markets today.  Asian shares were mixed with declines in the Nikkei (-.07%) and Shanghai (-2.9%) being offset by modest gains elsewhere.  European bourses are also mixed and the Dow Jones Stoxx 600 is off slightly.  European bonds benchmark bond yields are lower though US yields are firmer.
The US dollar …
Dollar-Bloc Currencies Advance, Sterling Too Dollar-Bloc Currencies Advance, Sterling Too Reviewed by Marc Chandler on January 28, 2016 Rating: 5
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