The position adjustment among speculators
in the currency futures market were minor in the reporting week that ended
February 23. There was only one gross adjustment
we regard as significant (more than 10k contracts). The Mexican officials
sprung a bear trap and forced speculators to cover. There were 15.8k gross short peso in speculative hands that were
bought back, leaving 83k contracts still short.
Despite the minor adjustments elsewhere,
two patterns were clear. First, speculators mostly added to gross long currency positions. The euro
and sterling were the two exceptions among the eight currency futures we track.
The second pattern is that speculators are reduced gross short positions. Here there is one exception.
The bears add 3k contracts to the gross short position, bringing it to 39.6k
contracts.
There are a few other observations worth
sharing. The net short euro position has been reduced for seven consecutive weeks. Over this period,
the net short position has been cut to 46.9k contracts from 160.6k. The
net long yen position of 52.7k contracts is a new four-year high. The net
short Canadian dollar position of 36.9k contracts is the smallest since
November. Speculators maintained the net long Australian dollar position
for a second week.
The speculative bears in the 10-year note
futures capitulated. They covered 95.2k gross short
contracts, the largest squeeze since November, leaving them with 452.9k
contracts. The bulls added 29.7k
contracts, giving them a gross long
position of 537.5k contracts. The result was a swing in the net position
from short 40.3k contracts to long 84.7k contracts.
Speculators anticipate oil prices to move
higher. The shorts covered 31.5k contracts leaving 327.4k gross short position. The longs added 15.3k contracts, giving them a 533.3k
gross long position. The net long position rose 46.9k contracts to
205.9k.
| 23-Feb | Commitment of Traders | |||||
| Net | Prior | Gross Long | Change | Gross Short | Change | |
| Euro | -46.9 | -48.2 | 107.6 | -6.4 | 154.4 | -7.8 |
| Yen | 52.7 | 47.9 | 92.4 | 7.9 | 39.6 | 3.0 |
| Sterling | -33.1 | -36.3 | 34.5 | -1.0 | 68.5 | -4.2 |
| Swiss Franc | -2.3 | -4.4 | 20.2 | 0.1 | 22.5 | -2.0 |
| C$ | -36.9 | -45.1 | 31.5 | 2.4 | 68.4 | -5.7 |
| A$ | 9.6 | 2.8 | 72.5 | 5.8 | 62.9 | -1.0 |
| NZ$ | -6.6 | -8.3 | 16.0 | 1.5 | 22.6 | -0.2 |
| Mexican Peso | -52.9 | -77.4 | 30.1 | 8.7 | 83.0 | -15.8 |
| (CFTC, Bloomberg) Speculative
positions in 000's of contracts Disclaimer |
||||||
Small Changes in Speculative Positioning in the Futures Market
Reviewed by Marc Chandler
on
February 27, 2016
Rating:
Reviewed by Marc Chandler
on
February 27, 2016
Rating:
