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Great Graphic: What are UK Equities Doing?

June 30, 2016
Some observers argue the media and some economists are exaggerating the impact of the UK vote a week ago.They talk about the petition for a second referendum. They about Scotland vetoing the decision to leave the EU.  They talk about the UK never invoking Article 50 and rehash all the ways the EU has subverted the popular in recent years.  
These d…
Great Graphic: What are UK Equities Doing? Great Graphic: What are UK Equities Doing? Reviewed by Marc Chandler on June 30, 2016 Rating: 5
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Calm Continues, but Rot Below the Surface

June 30, 2016
The global capital markets have quieted considerably since the start of the week. Month and quarter-end considerations appear to be playing a role.  Also, there is a sense it will take some time to sort things out.  Perhaps the biggest surprise is how ill-prepared the leave camp was for its victory.   There was no game plan.  There is no agreement…
Calm Continues, but Rot Below the Surface Calm Continues, but Rot Below the Surface Reviewed by Marc Chandler on June 30, 2016 Rating: 5
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The Worst is Yet to Come--Don't be Seduced by the Price Action

June 29, 2016
After plummeting 18.6 cents, mostly in a few hours after it became clear that the Brexit would carry the day, sterling has rallied four cents from the low set on Monday.   We recognized that the magnitude of the drop left sterling technically over-extended, but we caution against suggests that the worst is behind us and that a durable low is in pl…
The Worst is Yet to Come--Don't be Seduced by the Price Action The Worst is Yet to Come--Don't be Seduced by the Price Action Reviewed by Marc Chandler on June 29, 2016 Rating: 5
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Fragile Calm Ahead of Quarter-End

June 29, 2016
No fundamental development can compare with the UK decision to leave the EU.It has set off a chain reaction whose outcome is still far from clear.   Sterling is firm, alongside most of the major and emerging market currencies today.  Sterling narrowly edged above yesterday's highs to reach almost $1.3425 before encountering selling pressure. 
E…
Fragile Calm Ahead of Quarter-End Fragile Calm Ahead of Quarter-End Reviewed by Marc Chandler on June 29, 2016 Rating: 5
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How Exceptional are Conditions?

June 28, 2016
How exceptional are market developments? Much rests on the answer.  
If these are extraordinary circumstances, then Japanese intervention becomes more likely.Of course, Japanese policymakers have been inclined to intervene before the UK referendum but were seemingly rebuffed by its G7 partners. 
In Europe, the designation of "exceptional circum…
How Exceptional are Conditions? How Exceptional are Conditions? Reviewed by Marc Chandler on June 28, 2016 Rating: 5
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Markets Stabilize on Turn Around Tuesday

June 28, 2016
The global capital markets are stabilizing for the first time since the UK referendum.  It is not uncommon for markets to move in the direction of underlying trends on Friday's; see follow-through gains on Monday, and a reversal on Tuesday.  That is what is happening today.  Turnaround Tuesday after such dramatic price action over the last two…
Markets Stabilize on Turn Around Tuesday Markets Stabilize on Turn Around Tuesday Reviewed by Marc Chandler on June 28, 2016 Rating: 5
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Great Graphic: Sterling Monthly Chart and Outlook

June 27, 2016
ThisGreat Graphicshows sterling's monthly performance since 1971, according to Bloomberg data.There have been several powerful trends.  
The rally from $1.40 to $1.50 in the week following Cox's murder was understandable to us. The assassination broke the momentum that we also recognized had been building in favor of Brexit.  But to catch t…
Great Graphic: Sterling Monthly Chart and Outlook Great Graphic: Sterling Monthly Chart and Outlook Reviewed by Marc Chandler on June 27, 2016 Rating: 5
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UK Seeks Divorce, Rajoy Needs a Shotgun Marriage

June 27, 2016
The UK has decided to seek a divorce from the EU after a 43-year rocky marriage. It was not an overwhelming decision.  Brexit won by 52%-48% margin, seemingly too small for such a momentous decision. The UK has not decided exactly when it will formally begin the divorce proceedings, and it wants to be friends still.
Many fear the UK decision is the…
UK Seeks Divorce, Rajoy Needs a Shotgun Marriage UK Seeks Divorce, Rajoy Needs a Shotgun Marriage Reviewed by Marc Chandler on June 27, 2016 Rating: 5
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Post-Referendum Confusion Continues

June 27, 2016
Sterling has been sold beyond the panic low seen when it became clear that UK voters were choosing to leave the EU though nearly every economists warned of at least serious short- to medium-term negative economic implications.
The UK is in disarray. We remain struck by what appears to be the lack of a game plan by the leaders of the Brexit movement…
Post-Referendum Confusion Continues Post-Referendum Confusion Continues Reviewed by Marc Chandler on June 27, 2016 Rating: 5
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Emerging Market Preview: Week Ahead

June 26, 2016
(from my colleague Dr.Win Thin)

The Brexit vote is a game-changer for EM.  While the direct impact on EM is limited, the damage to market sentiment is undeniable.  And to make matters worse, there will be a protracted period of uncertainty as the UK and the EU negotiate the divorce proceedings.  
We do not think individual country stories will matt…
Emerging Market Preview: Week Ahead Emerging Market Preview: Week Ahead Reviewed by Marc Chandler on June 26, 2016 Rating: 5
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