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Great Graphic: Oil is Looking Crude

August 31, 2016
Oil has broken down further today.  The ostensible trigger was the larger than expected build in US inventories.  However, the price of oil has been trending lower since the beginning of last week.  It appears that our skepticism of talk of an output freeze is gaining support.  The Saudis have indicated that they do not see a need for action, whil…
Great Graphic: Oil is Looking Crude Great Graphic: Oil is Looking Crude Reviewed by Marc Chandler on August 31, 2016 Rating: 5
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Spain's Political Deadlock Likely Leads to Third Election

August 31, 2016
There is a small chance that the political deadlock in Spain will be resolved this week.  Despite the agreement on some 150 policy points, the Popular Party and Ciudadanos, the new center-right party, they will not secure a majority without the tacit support of some members of either the Socialists or the new left party Podemos.    
PP leader and c…
Spain's Political Deadlock Likely Leads to Third Election Spain's Political Deadlock Likely Leads to Third Election Reviewed by Marc Chandler on August 31, 2016 Rating: 5
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Dollar Bides Times, Month-End at Hand, Jobs Data Ahead

August 31, 2016
The US dollar is a little softer against most of the major and emerging market currencies.  The exception is the Japanese yen, where the greenback has moved above JPY103 for the first time in a month.  The tone is consolidative as the market awaits assurances that the jobs growth this month has been sufficiently strong as to keep the prospects of …
Dollar Bides Times, Month-End at Hand, Jobs Data Ahead Dollar Bides Times, Month-End at Hand, Jobs Data Ahead Reviewed by Marc Chandler on August 31, 2016 Rating: 5
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Natural Rates and Terminal Fed Funds

August 30, 2016
The market recognizes that the indication by the FOMC at the end of last year that four rates hikes in 2016 may be appropriate was far from the mark.  At the same time, investors are coming around to the prospects that the Fed is not one and done either.  
A key issue for investors and policymakers is what is the terminal rate for Fed funds.  This …
Natural Rates and Terminal Fed Funds Natural Rates and Terminal Fed Funds Reviewed by Marc Chandler on August 30, 2016 Rating: 5
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Greenback Remains Firm, Awaiting Fresh Cues

August 30, 2016
The US dollar is trading firmly, largely within yesterday's ranges.  The odds implied by the September Fed fund futures eased to 36% from 42% before the weekend, but ahead of Fischer's Bloomberg TV appearance, and tomorrow's ADP employment estimate, the market seems cautious about fading the dollar's strength.  
There are several de…
Greenback Remains Firm, Awaiting Fresh Cues Greenback Remains Firm, Awaiting Fresh Cues Reviewed by Marc Chandler on August 30, 2016 Rating: 5
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