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Greenback Finishing Weak Quarter in Mixed Fashion

March 31, 2017
The US dollar fell against all the major currencies in the first three months of 2017. The weakness initially seemed to be a correction to the rally, which began before the US election last year.  The dollar recovered in February, in anticipation of a hawkish Fed in March.  
The Fed did hike rates, but the dollar fell as the earlier than anticipate…
Greenback Finishing Weak Quarter in Mixed Fashion Greenback Finishing Weak Quarter in Mixed Fashion Reviewed by Marc Chandler on March 31, 2017 Rating: 5
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Emerging Markets: What has Changed

March 31, 2017
(from my colleague Dr. Win Thin)
Former Korean President Park was arrested.Hungary’s central bank was more dovish than expected.South African President Zuma finally fired Finance Minister Gordhan.Brazil’s meat industry may have seen the worst of the scandal.Banco de Mexico slowed the pace of tightening.In the EM equity space as measured by MSCI, C…
Emerging Markets: What has Changed Emerging Markets: What has Changed Reviewed by Marc Chandler on March 31, 2017 Rating: 5
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Brief Thoughts on the Dollar

March 30, 2017
The US dollar starts the North American session narrowly mixed. Sterling, the Australian dollar, and Swiss franc are enjoying small gains.  The Scandis, the New Zealand dollar and euro are nursing small losses.  
The main talking point the improved signals from the US and the more cautious tone from Europe. In the US, there is talk of a compromise …
Brief Thoughts on the Dollar Brief Thoughts on the Dollar Reviewed by Marc Chandler on March 30, 2017 Rating: 5
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Cool Video: "Turn Around Tuesday" Call in Early Asia Yesterday

March 29, 2017
I had time this afternoon, as I prepare for my TMA presentation tomorrow night here in Hong Kong, to find my clip from yesterday on CNBC, where I suggested the risk of a dollar recovery after it lost downside momentum in North America on Monday.
There has not been much follow through today, though the euro broke below $1.08 in late-Asia and is mai…
Cool Video: "Turn Around Tuesday" Call in Early Asia Yesterday Cool Video: "Turn Around Tuesday" Call in Early Asia Yesterday Reviewed by Marc Chandler on March 29, 2017 Rating: 5
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Cool Video: Brexit, Europe and EU Challenges

March 29, 2017
Earlier today, I had the opportunity to discuss the outlook for sterling and the US dollar on Bloomberg TV with Rishaad Salamat and Haidi Lun.  It is a momentous day with Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty being formally triggered by UK Prime Minister May, nine months after what was, at least initially, a non-binding referendum.  
European Council Pre…
Cool Video: Brexit, Europe and EU Challenges Cool Video: Brexit, Europe and EU Challenges Reviewed by Marc Chandler on March 29, 2017 Rating: 5
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Great Graphic: Emerging Market Stocks

March 28, 2017
This Great Graphic from Bloomberg is a weekly bar chart of MSCI Emerging Market equity index.   In H2 15 and H1 16, it carved out a head and shoulders bottom that we identify on the chart. We also drew in the neckline and noted the minimum objective of the inverse head and shoulders pattern.  
The index has risen 12.25% in Q1 17 to approach the obj…
Great Graphic: Emerging Market Stocks Great Graphic: Emerging Market Stocks Reviewed by Marc Chandler on March 28, 2017 Rating: 5
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Prospects for Turnaround Tuesday?

March 27, 2017
The slide in the US dollar and US interest rates faded in the North American session on Monday.  US participants also had a fairly relaxed initial response to news that after years of complaining, the Republicans could not agree on an alternative to the Affordable Care Act.  
Many observers experience the currency market to be buffeted by many diff…
Prospects for Turnaround Tuesday? Prospects for Turnaround Tuesday? Reviewed by Marc Chandler on March 27, 2017 Rating: 5
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Five Keys to Understand Trump

March 27, 2017
(draft of my monthly column for a Chinese paper)

The election of Donald Trump as the 45th President of the United States surprised many people, even seasoned political observers and astute investors.  He failed to win the popular vote but did carry the electoral college, which is how the US elects its chief executive.   His victory is a bit of a …
Five Keys to Understand Trump Five Keys to Understand Trump Reviewed by Marc Chandler on March 27, 2017 Rating: 5
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Emerging Markets: Week Ahead Preview

March 26, 2017
(from my colleague Dr. Win Thin)
EM FX ended the week on a firm note. Indeed, virtually all of EM was up against the dollar last week, led by ZAR and MXN. BRL and PHP were the laggards. It remains to be seen how markets react to the failure to pass the health care reform in the US. Will Trump move on the tax reform? Can the Republicans procee…
Emerging Markets: Week Ahead Preview Emerging Markets: Week Ahead Preview Reviewed by Marc Chandler on March 26, 2017 Rating: 5
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After US Health Care, Now What?

March 26, 2017
The first quarter winds down. The dollar moved lower against all the major currencies.  The best performer in the first three months of the year has been the Australian dollar's whose 5.8% rally includes last week's 1% drop.  The worst performing major currency has been the Canadian dollar.  It often underperforms in a weak US dollar envir…
After US Health Care, Now What? After US Health Care, Now What? Reviewed by Marc Chandler on March 26, 2017 Rating: 5
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Speculators Build Long Euro and Aussie Positions but Slash Canadian Dollar Longs Speculators Build Long Euro and Aussie Positions but Slash Canadian Dollar Longs Reviewed by Marc Chandler on March 25, 2017 Rating: 5
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Dollar Bottom may be Near

March 25, 2017
(greetings from Hong Kong)


Position adjustment in the foreign exchange market continued to dominate the price action. The dollar tended to trade heaviest against those currencies that speculators were short, like the euro, yen, and sterling. It tended to rise against currencies that speculators were long such as the Australian and Canadian dollar.�…
Dollar Bottom may be Near Dollar Bottom may be Near Reviewed by Marc Chandler on March 25, 2017 Rating: 5
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