The dollar is softer against most
of the major currencies to cap a poor weekly performance. The Dollar
Index is posting what may be its biggest weekly loss since last
November.
The combination of the Federal Reserve not signaling an acceleration of normalization,
while the market remains profoundly skeptical of even its current indications,
and perceptions that the ECB and BOE can raise
earlier than anticipated weighed on the dollar. The PBOC surprised
many by lifting some operational interest rates. It also contributed to
the sense that the divergence theme has run its course.
We are somewhat skeptical of the sustainability of that new narrative,
but recognize it has emerged while the short-term market was carrying
significant long dollar (and short Treasury positions). We expect EMU
headline inflation to peak in the coming months. Similarly, we expect UK data to soften and not give the MPC a
compelling reason to lift rates. Next week's numerous Fed
officials are speaking, including Yellen. Given the market's reaction to
the statement and forecasts, it would not be surprising to see some push
against the dovish hike interpretation.
Comments from Austrian central bank governor Nowotny showed where the ECB
hawks are trying to lead. As we heard recently, some ECB board
members have chosen now to talk about an exit process that still seems
premature for a majority. The argument is that the US sequence of
finishing QE before increasing rates may not be suitable for Europe.
Nowotny went a little beyond earlier comments to suggest that not all rates
would necessarily rise. The deposit rate, for example, could be raised
without having to lift the refi rate. EONIA would likely adjust to such a
development.
Nowotny's comments reinvigorated the euro's advance. The single
currency is rising for third sessions,
the longest streak since late January. It is the third weekly
advance. The euro is approaching the early February high near
$1.0830. Above there is the high from the ECB's December meeting and the
taper and extension, set near $1.0875. The two-year rate
differential has narrowed nine basis points this week to one-month lows (2.09%)
In addition to Forbes and Nowotny, US Treasury Secretary's comments late
yesterday were also important, even if the market's response was mute or
overshadowed by other developments. Mnuchin's remarks sounded very
much like many of his predecessors and not from an administration that seemed
intent on breaking from American tradition. The US Treasury Secretary
endorsed the strong dollar, saying it was good for the US in the
long-term.
That he recognized that the strong dollar could pose problems in the
short-run is not so different from the G7/G20 caution against excessive
volatility. Still, it would be even more helpful, if Mnuchin
decoupled the strong dollar policy from prices, and endorsed the original
intent: a commitment not to weaponize
the dollar, which made possible the new orthodoxy of letting markets determine
exchange rates.
Mnuchin also seemed to embrace the process that the Treasury Department
had developed to determine manipulation in the foreign exchange market.
If the criteria are maintained, it
suggests that China will not be cited as
a manipulator in next month's report. Meanwhile, Trump and Merkel
will meet, after the initial timeframe for earlier this week had to be postponed due to weather. Trump has
been critical of Germany and Merkel personally. Trump's protectionist
rhetoric, doubts about NATO, possible overtures to Russia, and efforts to
dilute financial regulation don't set well with the German
Chancellor. However, expect a "very good" and
"productive" meeting even if not "tremendous."
Another draft G20 statement may be leaked,
but the impact on the market is likely to be modest at best. Its importance lies with changes from the last
G20 statement as the most important change since then is the new US
administration.
The US reports industrial production and manufacturing output.
The former is to bounce back after a 0.3% decline in January.
Manufacturing employment rose more than expected (28k, matching January 2015
high, which itself was the highest since August 2013). The median from
the Bloomberg survey is for a 0.5% rise in manufacturing output. The University of Michigan reports consumer
sentiment and inflation expectations. The Conference Board reports
February leading economic indicators. The LEI averaged 0.2% increase a
month in 2016. The average over the past three months has doubled that,
and it will rise further if it rises another 0.5% today.
Still, remember that Q1 growth in the US has been notoriously poor since
the crisis and has not a material impact
on subsequent performance. Specifically, Q1 GDP has averaged 1.04%
since 2010. The other quarters average 2.5% (2.5% Q2, 2.7% Q3 and 2.3%
Q4). The Atlanta Fed GDPtracker is estimating 0.9% for Q1 17, and
estimate we suspect will be raised as the
US consumption is not as weak as the early data suggests.
Disclaimer
Dollar Remains Heavy
Reviewed by Marc Chandler
on
March 17, 2017
Rating: