Over the past few weeks, the markets have come to accept the
likelihood of a December Fed hike. US interest rates have adjusted. The pricing of December Fed
funds futures contract is consistent with
around an 80% chance of a hike. The two-year yield is trading at the upper end
of what is expected to be the Fed funds target range at the end of the year,
after slipping below the current range a month ago. The Dollar Index
formed a bottoming pattern.
Paradoxically, therein lies
the challenge. The anticipation of a hike is now well priced in, and the question is what.
The Dollar Index has met the initial technical target. The 10-year
yield is has moved into the upper end of its six-month range.
Where will the fuel come
from for the next leg up for the dollar? One important source may come from a reassessment of
US monetary policy. The critics complain that the Fed had anticipated a
more aggressive pace of tightening than it delivered. But this old
news. It is the echo of a cry from
2015 and 2016. The Fed will likely deliver three hikes this year as it had
indicated, and the market had doubted. The issue is 2018.
With a Fed funds target
range of 1.00% to 1.25%, the effective average rate is steady at 1.16%. The anticipated hike in December will
likely lift the effective average to 1.41%. That means that a hike in
2018 would lift the effective average to 1.66%. The implied yield of the
December 2018 Fed funds contract is 1.64%, suggesting the market remains
profoundly skeptical of the three hikes that most Fed officials see as likely
to be appropriate next year.
We fully accept that the September employment data was distorted
by the storms. There
is no reason to doubt that the underlying strength and improvement of the labor
markets has ended. Nor do we think it has accelerated. While the headline
was distorted to the downside by the most
amount of people unable to go to work due to the weather in 20 years, the
hourly earnings were flattered.
Workers in food and drinking
establishments, mostly lower pay, were particularly hard hit by the
storm. At the
same time, there appears to have been an increased demand for some higher-paid professionals. However, we
can be confident that the upward revision to the August hourly earnings to 2.7%
from 2.5%, was not skewed. This is
the strongest pace since 2009.
The US data highlight from
the week ahead will be the CPI and retail sales report on October 13. To be sure, the data will not
be clean in the sense that some components will
be distorted by the storms. The distortion will likely be
on the upside. Gasoline prices surged, which will help flatter the
headline, but there is more.
The market for products, like household appliances and the like, that are necessities in the storm-ravaged areas, appear relatively tight in terms of inventory/sales ratios. That said, the transitory
headwinds that some Fed officials had noted dampening inflation, are in fact subsiding. Also,
related to this is the fact that the breadth has been increasing.
Investors already know that
US auto sales surged in September. This, and the rise in
gasoline prices, will lift the headline, possibly by the most in a
couple of years. The economic dynamics of what we discussed above will
spill over and help accelerate the gains in the measure used for GDP purposes,
which excludes, autos, gasoline, building materials. The average of this
core measure of retail sales this year has been a 0.23%, identical to last year's average. The median
forecast in the Bloomberg survey is for a 0.4% increase after a 0.2% decline in
August.
The consensus narrative
under-appreciates the importance of politics in driving the euro higher this
year. Consider
that through Q1, the dollar was consolidating its Q4 16 gains. It was not
until it became clear that the populist-nationalist moment that supposedly
connected Brexit with Trump was coming home to roost in Europe. The euro
gapped higher on April 24; jumping above $1.08 not seeing it again.
If Macron's election marks
the euro's bottom, Merkel's re-election help mark the top. The implications of the changed
coalition, a new cabinet, including a new finance minister, are far from clear. The formal negotiations
for the new government are just beginning,
and it will likely take most of the rest of the year, if not longer, to reach
an agreement.
Merkel will also have to
close ranks with the Bavaria-based CSU, which had considered running a
candidate against her. The
CSU and Merkel's right-flank have been critical of her immigration policy as
leaving them vulnerable to the AfD. The
AfD drew their support heavily from the former eastern states that had less
exposure to immigrants.
At the same time, Spanish
and UK politics are also impacting investors. The underperformance of Spanish
assets is clearly tied to the anxiety
over Catalonia's push for independence and Madrid's response. The meeting
of Catalonia's regional government was supported to take place on October 9,
but the meeting was suspended by the
Spain's Constitutional Court. The effect of the suspension is not clear.
Presently, it almost feels like both Catalonia and Madrid are taking a
collective deep breath and reconsidering the options.
The Catalonia leaders may
have bitten off more than they can chew. A declaration of independence,
which they have given their followers reason to expect, but we a declaration of
war. Madrid would have little choice to resist, which could take
different forms, including the suspension of the local government. It
could include occupying Catalonia and arresting the leaders as traitors.
An independent Catalonia
would be an economic challenge. Yes, it is true that Catalonia accounts for about a fifth of
Spain's economy. But severed from Spain, it would likely shrink.
Press reports indicate that several companies, including banks, are or
considering registering outside of Catalonia. As Montreal can tell
Catalonia, even if secession does not take place, the mere threat can have
far-reaching effects.
There are
many issues that may
not have been thought out. Catalonia's leaders have threatened to declare independence.
What currency would they use? How would they service their debt?
What is their responsibility for the federal debt? There are countless
moving pieces, and they require time and institutional capacity. It is
not the same as running a region. Catalonian officials have ultimately
fanned unrealistic expectations, and
there will be an economic and political price to pay.
The ECB meeting is
approaching. The
market is expecting a slowing of the asset purchases and an extension through
the end of H1 18. The ECB's chief economist and board member, Praet
suggested a trade-off between the length
of the program and its duration. In the early phase, during a crisis, the
size of the program is important, but later, the duration considerations
eclipse it. That assessment would seem to
suggest a compromise with some creditor interests by a larger cut in
purchases than the 20 bln euros that the consensus had expected (we thought 30
bln cut would maximize the central bank's options), and a longer run
period (we had thought six months, but there is some talk now of a 12-month extension).
UK Prime Minister May had a bad fortune in delivering a poor speech to the
Conservative Party conference last week. Ignore a cough,
the distracting falling letter of the backdrop, and the prank. Her two
main proposals, boosting social housing spending and capping household energy
bills, were lifted from the opposition. Since losing the Tory majority in
the general election a few months ago, May has struggled to rebuild the
confidence that had been shaken.
Tory Party rules governing a
leadership challenge have changed. Essentially, the rules require 15% of the Tory members of
parliament (or 48 MPs) to call for a leadership
contest. Shapp, a former
head of the Tory Party appears to comparable to "stalking horse"
previously, and collecting the letters advocating a leadership challenge. Reports suggest he has around 30 such letters. There is no time limit for
the other 18.
Sterling has dropped six
cents since September 20 to approach the psychologically important $1.30 level. There are two sources of
vulnerability. First, the decline in sterling has not been accompanied by a shift in interest rate
expectations. Drawing from the OIS, Bloomberg calculates a 76% chance of
a hike in November and a nearly 80% chance of a hike before the end of the
year. The implied yield on the
December short-sterling futures contract slipped from 56 bp on September
20 and closed at 52 bp before the weekend.
If the sterling's first
vulnerability is a downgrade of the perceptions of the likelihood of a BOE
hike, the second is speculative market positioning. The CFTC latest reporting
period covered through October 3. Over the five-session period ending on
October 3, sterling fell two cents, but in the futures market, speculators
reduced their gross short position by 20% or nearly 15k contracts. The
net long speculative position rose to nearly 20k contracts, the largest in
three years.
Our broader point is that
the fact that America elected an unorthodox president is well appreciated; what
is not is the deterioration of European politics. Many narratives link the
dollar's weakness this year to Trump's weak public support. This strikes us as exaggerated, and our
expectation for a dollar recovery after bottoming a month ago is not predicated on a marked improvement in
Trump's support.
The Gallup Daily tracking
poll shows that 39% approve of the job Trump is doing as President. He drew 46.4% of the
popular vote last November. Consider that Merkel's CDU/CSU coalition secured a
little less than 33% of the popular vote in recent German elections.
Recent polls see the UK Tories with public support of 39%. In the
snap election in June, the Tories garnered almost 42.5% of the vote.
France's Macron rounds out
the three-M's (Merkel, May, and Macron). The once-Socialist Economics Minister is pursuing a
neo-liberal agenda of labor reforms making it easier to hire and fire workers,
public spending cuts, and tax cuts, and antagonizing various constituencies.
Six months ago, he was elected with
a 60 percentage point support. It was halved by late September, before
recovering to 32% in early August.
Lastly, polls suggest that
the LDP will remain the largest party after the October 22 election. That would suggest that Abe
will remain as Prime Minister. The Governor of Tokyo and head of the main opposition party now, the Party of Hope, Koike, has until Tuesday to decide if she will run for a parliamentary seat, which would give her standing to be Prime Minister. All indications suggest she will not abandon her newly elected position as Governor of Tokyo.
In the context of Japanese politics, it also matters how many seats the LDP loses. If it loses more than 58 seats, it will lose its simple majority. This could set up a leadership challenge to Abe at the 2018 party conference. With little change in Abenomics, the yen seems to remain at the mercy of the US 10-year yield.
In the context of Japanese politics, it also matters how many seats the LDP loses. If it loses more than 58 seats, it will lose its simple majority. This could set up a leadership challenge to Abe at the 2018 party conference. With little change in Abenomics, the yen seems to remain at the mercy of the US 10-year yield.
Disclaimer
Forces of Movement
Reviewed by Marc Chandler
on
October 08, 2017
Rating: