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Globalization: Keynote Speech in Luxembourg

January 30, 2018
I had the privilege of delivering the keynote address at the 6th Annual Cross-Border Distribution Conference, sponsored by Deloitte and Elvinger Hoss, and supported by the Financial Times Live, in Luxembourg. What follows is the gist of my remarks not a verbatim duplication of the address.
I began off my speech by citing a number that I recently c…
Globalization: Keynote Speech in Luxembourg Globalization: Keynote Speech in Luxembourg Reviewed by Marc Chandler on January 30, 2018 Rating: 5
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Dollar and Bonds Stabilize; Equities not Yet

January 30, 2018
The US dollar is paring yesterday's gains, and the 10-year Treasury yield has slipped back below the 2.70% level after pushing 2.73% briefly.  European bonds have also eased, with yields one-two basis points lower.   It is thus far a mild Turn Around Tuesday but suggests that the market psychology that has driven the dollar lower and yields hi…
Dollar and Bonds Stabilize; Equities not Yet Dollar and Bonds Stabilize; Equities not Yet Reviewed by Marc Chandler on January 30, 2018 Rating: 5
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Dollar Bounce may Not be Sufficient to Avoid Turn Around Tuesday

January 29, 2018
The US dollar is having one of its best days in three months.  It is coinciding with the push in 10-year yields above 2.70% and the two-year yield at its highest level since 2008 (~2.13%).  It may have been encouraged by a push back against the ECB hawks who want to end QE as soon as possible and preannounce an end date. 
The doves suggest that the…
Dollar Bounce may Not be Sufficient to Avoid Turn Around Tuesday Dollar Bounce may Not be Sufficient to Avoid Turn Around Tuesday Reviewed by Marc Chandler on January 29, 2018 Rating: 5
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A Brief Word

January 29, 2018
(Beginning the second half of two-week business trip in Europe.  Next stop Luxembourg)
The US dollar is modestly firmer, but nothing to suggest a outright correction rather than consolidation.  However, have a dramatic drop over the past month, much more than we think is justified by macroeconomic developments and interest rates, we think the dolla…
A Brief Word A Brief Word Reviewed by Marc Chandler on January 29, 2018 Rating: 5
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Emerging Markets: Week Ahead Preview

January 28, 2018
(from my colleague Dr.Win Thin)

EM FX closed Friday on a mixed note, but still posted solid gains for the week as a whole.  Best performers last week were ZAR, PLN, and CZK while the worst were ARS, PHP, and IDR.  The bearish dollar environment remains intact and so we see further gains for EM FX this week.  However, we continue to warn that diver…
Emerging Markets: Week Ahead Preview Emerging Markets: Week Ahead Preview Reviewed by Marc Chandler on January 28, 2018 Rating: 5
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Market Confusion and New Inputs

January 28, 2018
Many investors are confused, and the official communication only fanned the confusion.  Before turning to next week’s key events and data, let's first spend some time, working through some of the confusion. 
There was no change in policy last week.   The US did not suddenly become protectionist.  It did put tariffs on solar panels and washing m…
Market Confusion and New Inputs Market Confusion and New Inputs Reviewed by Marc Chandler on January 28, 2018 Rating: 5
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Can the Market Get more Dollar Negative?

January 27, 2018
The US dollar's technical tone remains poor and market psychology is nearly universally hostile toward it.  Many believe that the US Administration is hostile to the international order and rule of law that previous American administrations constructed and advanced.  The de-weaponization of the foreign exchange market one of the hallmarks over…
Can the Market Get more Dollar Negative? Can the Market Get more Dollar Negative? Reviewed by Marc Chandler on January 27, 2018 Rating: 5
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Emerging Markets: What Changed

January 26, 2018
(from my colleague Dr. Win Thin)

Korea policymakers have asked state-owned banks and companies to limit the issuance of global bonds.Malaysia's central bank hiked rates for the first time in four years.Pakistan’s central bank unexpectedly hiked rates for the first time in over four years.Moody’s raised its outlook on Russia’s Ba1 rating from s…
Emerging Markets: What Changed Emerging Markets: What Changed Reviewed by Marc Chandler on January 26, 2018 Rating: 5
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Trump-Inspired Dollar Short Squeeze Fades Quickly

January 26, 2018
It was dramatic.  Following the BOJ and ECB's rather mild rebuke of dollar's depreciation, US President Trump cautioned that his Treasury Secretary comments were taken out of context, and in ant event, he, the President ultimately favored a strong dollar.   The dollar, which had continued fall after Draghi's post-ECB meeting comments, …
Trump-Inspired Dollar Short Squeeze Fades Quickly Trump-Inspired Dollar Short Squeeze Fades Quickly Reviewed by Marc Chandler on January 26, 2018 Rating: 5
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Initial Thoughts on Draghi

January 25, 2018
ECB President Draghi was unable to arrest the US dollar's slide and euro's surge.  But he did not try particularly hard. 
While many investors are a bit stumped by the pace and magnitude of the dollar's slump, Draghi seemed to imply that it was perfectly understandable given the recovery of the eurozone economy.  The economy is the stro…
Initial Thoughts on Draghi Initial Thoughts on Draghi Reviewed by Marc Chandler on January 25, 2018 Rating: 5
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