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More Backing and Filling for the Greenback to Start July

June 30, 2018
The powerful combination of the US policy mix and the divergence with most other central banks drives our constructive medium-term outlook for the dollar.  However, the technical indicators warn that there is still scope for some more backing and filling before the rally can resume on more sure foot.   
The greenback had a strong quarter, appreciat…
More Backing and Filling for the Greenback to Start July More Backing and Filling for the Greenback to Start July Reviewed by Marc Chandler on June 30, 2018 Rating: 5
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Emerging Markets: What Changed

June 29, 2018
(from my colleague Dr. Win Thin)
PBOC fixed USD/CNY at the highest level since December 14.Bank Indonesia delivered a larger than expected 50 bp to 5.25%.Bulgarian Prime Minister Boyko Borissov survived a second no-confidence vote this year.Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan was re-elected but with sweeping new powers.Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, and…
Emerging Markets: What Changed Emerging Markets: What Changed Reviewed by Marc Chandler on June 29, 2018 Rating: 5
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Stocks Jump into Quarter-End, Euro Bounces on Immigration Deal

June 29, 2018
Global equities are posting impressive gains to close out the quarter.  The Shanghai Composite rose nearly 2.2%, its strongest gain in a couple of years on signals from the PBOC that focus may shift to growth stabilization, which could facilitate easing of credit conditions.  The onshore yuan snapped a six-day slide, while the offshore yuan rose f…
Stocks Jump into Quarter-End, Euro Bounces on Immigration Deal Stocks Jump into Quarter-End, Euro Bounces on Immigration Deal Reviewed by Marc Chandler on June 29, 2018 Rating: 5
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Challenges for Investors in Q3

June 28, 2018
The third quarter begins with clarified monetary policy outlooks for the US, EMU, and Japan. At the end of Q2, the Federal Reserve signaled it would likely raise rates in September and December.  The unwinding of the balance sheet, though, continues at a rapid pace.  In Q3, the Fed will not reinvest the proceeds of the $40 bln of maturing bonds a …
Challenges for Investors in Q3 Challenges for Investors in Q3 Reviewed by Marc Chandler on June 28, 2018 Rating: 5
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US Dollar Remains Firm, Sends Yuan, Rupee, Sterling and Kiwi to New 2018 Lows US Dollar Remains Firm, Sends Yuan, Rupee, Sterling and Kiwi to New 2018 Lows Reviewed by Marc Chandler on June 28, 2018 Rating: 5
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Move Over Behavioral Finance, Make Room for Sociobiology

June 27, 2018
Trading is not just about risk assessment and fundamental and technical analysis.  There seems to a biological component that is gradually percolating into the mainstream. John Coates', work that was reported in the Financial Times, and his 2012 book  "The Hour Between Dog and Wolf:  Risk Taking, Gut Feelings and the Biology of Boom and B…
Move Over Behavioral Finance, Make Room for Sociobiology Move Over Behavioral Finance, Make Room for Sociobiology Reviewed by Marc Chandler on June 27, 2018 Rating: 5
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Renminbi Slide Continues and Oil Extends Surge

June 27, 2018
The US dollar is mostly firmer today, though has slipped back below the JPY110 level, as lower yields and equities support the Japanese yen.  The main story in the foreign exchange market today is the continued slide in the Chinese renminbi.  The decline is the sharpest since the 2015 devaluation.  
The onshore yuan fell for its eighth session of t…
Renminbi Slide Continues and Oil Extends Surge Renminbi Slide Continues and Oil Extends Surge Reviewed by Marc Chandler on June 27, 2018 Rating: 5
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Political Economy of Immigration

June 26, 2018
We have been emphasizing three major forces that are disruptive for investors:  the US policy mix in both absolute terms and relative to other major countries, the escalating trade tensions, and immigration.  Most of our analysis has focused on the policy mix and trade.  We turn to immigration here and share these observations.  
The peak in both U…
Political Economy of Immigration Political Economy of Immigration Reviewed by Marc Chandler on June 26, 2018 Rating: 5
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Trade Tensions and Approaching Quarter-End Cast Pall Over Markets

June 26, 2018
The global capital markets have stabilized today after yesterday's rout in equities, softer yields, and US dollar.  The implementation of US tariffs on China and China's retaliatory tariffs on the US is still ten days off.  The immediate focus is on actions expected to curb the technology transfer.  
However, there have been conflicting sig…
Trade Tensions and Approaching Quarter-End Cast Pall Over Markets Trade Tensions and Approaching Quarter-End Cast Pall Over Markets Reviewed by Marc Chandler on June 26, 2018 Rating: 5
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Some Thoughts on the Yuan

June 25, 2018
The Chinese yuan extended its slide and finished the mainland session at its lowest level of the year.   It is one of the weakest in the region this month.  The onshore yuan has depreciated 1.9% against the dollar so far, and the offshore yuan has fallen slightly more (2.1%).  Only the Korean won and Thai baht fell more (3.5% and 2.9%, respectivel…
Some Thoughts on the Yuan Some Thoughts on the Yuan Reviewed by Marc Chandler on June 25, 2018 Rating: 5
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