Edit

Tensions Beyond Trade

July 31, 2018
Chinese officials do not seem to appreciate the extent of its isolation.  The disruption from the US as Trump positions the US as a revisionist power-one that wants to alter the world order, which it was instrumental in constructing, may have obscured the fact that China's practices are a source of frustration and animosity broadly and widely.…
Tensions Beyond Trade Tensions Beyond Trade Reviewed by Marc Chandler on July 31, 2018 Rating: 5
Edit

BOJ Prepares for QE Infinity

July 31, 2018
The Japanese yen has been sold following the adjustments to policy and outlook by the BOJ that will allow the unconventional policies continue for an "extended period of time."  Cross rate pressure and month-end demand have lifted the euro and sterling through yesterday's highs.  A disappointing Q2 GDP report from the eurozone (0.3% …
BOJ Prepares for QE Infinity BOJ Prepares for QE Infinity Reviewed by Marc Chandler on July 31, 2018 Rating: 5
Edit

Great Graphic: USD Pushes Below CAD1.30

July 30, 2018
For the first time since mid-June, the US dollar has traded below CAD1.30.  The greenback is weaker against all the major currencies.  However, for the most part, it is still in well-worn ranges, which makes the breakdown against the Canadian dollar even more notable.  It is not clear that today's break will be sustained.  Indeed, we lean agai…
Great Graphic: USD Pushes Below CAD1.30 Great Graphic: USD Pushes Below CAD1.30 Reviewed by Marc Chandler on July 30, 2018 Rating: 5
Edit

Trump-Conte Meeting: More Political Theater

July 30, 2018
The highly touted trade truce between the US and Europe was political theater at its best.  Europe will continue what it had been doing.  With US soy being priced out of the Chinese market, the PRC  import more soy from Brazil.  European soy buyers may be displaced and may turn to the US.  US soy faces no EU tariffs.  Europe's energy needs are…
Trump-Conte Meeting: More Political Theater Trump-Conte Meeting: More Political Theater Reviewed by Marc Chandler on July 30, 2018 Rating: 5
Edit

Equities, Bonds, and the Dollar Start Week Softer

July 30, 2018
The week's big events lie ahead.  It is seen as the last important week before the dog days of summer when many participants will take holidays.  The BOJ's two-day meeting concludes tomorrow.  Speculation that the BOJ is looking for ways to tweak its program continues to spur a small taper-lite tantrum in Tokyo.  
For the third session with…
Equities, Bonds, and the Dollar Start Week Softer Equities, Bonds, and the Dollar Start Week Softer Reviewed by Marc Chandler on July 30, 2018 Rating: 5
Edit

Emerging Markets: Week Ahead Preview

July 29, 2018
(from my colleague Dr. Win Thin)

EM FX enjoyed a respite from the ongoing selling pressures, with most currencies up on the week vs. the dollar.  Best performers were CLP, MXN, and ZAR while the worst were TRY, CNY, and COP.  BOJ, Fed, and BOE meetings this week may pose some risks to EM FX.
South Africa reports June money, loan, and budget data Mo…
Emerging Markets: Week Ahead Preview Emerging Markets: Week Ahead Preview Reviewed by Marc Chandler on July 29, 2018 Rating: 5
Edit

Three Central Bank Meetings and US Jobs data

July 29, 2018
The week ahead sees three major central bank meetings and the US employment report.  It will likely be the most important work before a hiatus that runs through the end of August.  Of course, and perhaps more than ever, market participants are well aware that the US President's communication and penchant for disruption is a bit of a wild card.…
Three Central Bank Meetings and US Jobs data Three Central Bank Meetings and US Jobs data Reviewed by Marc Chandler on July 29, 2018 Rating: 5
Edit

Greenback Outlook: More of the Same?

July 28, 2018
A week ago, fear of a currency and trade war were fanned by comments by US President Trump.  Trump's comments about the EU and China manipulating their currencies were largely ignored except by short-term foreign exchange traders and the press.  
An escalation of trade tensions eased when Europe agreed to do what it was doing (buying US soy) an…
Greenback Outlook: More of the Same? Greenback Outlook: More of the Same? Reviewed by Marc Chandler on July 28, 2018 Rating: 5
Edit

Emerging Markets: What Changed

July 27, 2018
(from my colleague Dr. Win Thin)
China officials unveiled a set of policies designed to support the weakening economy.South African Reserve Bank is leaning more hawkish.Central Bank of Turkey delivered a dovish surprise.US-Turkey relations have worsenedMoody’s downgraded Chile by a notch to A1 with a stable outlook.US-Mexico trade negotiations may…
Emerging Markets: What Changed Emerging Markets: What Changed Reviewed by Marc Chandler on July 27, 2018 Rating: 5
Edit

Greenback Remains Firm Ahead of Q2 GDP

July 27, 2018
The US dollar is trading firmly in Europe after consolidating yesterday's gains during the Asian session and ahead of the first look at Q2 GDP.  Yesterday's economic reports, including durable goods orders and inventory data, saw the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow tracker lower its forecast to 3.8% from 4.5%.  Most market surveys likely do not i…
Greenback Remains Firm Ahead of Q2 GDP Greenback Remains Firm Ahead of Q2 GDP Reviewed by Marc Chandler on July 27, 2018 Rating: 5
Edit

ECB Sticks to Its Knitting, No Surprises

July 26, 2018
Little has taken place since the June 14 ECB meeting that requires a shift in the official stance.  Rates and guidance were left unchanged.  The deposit rate remains at minus 0.4%, and there is no intention to raise it until after next summer.  The current 30 bln euro of monthly asset purchases will be halved in Q4 and conclude at the end of the y…
ECB Sticks to Its Knitting, No Surprises ECB Sticks to Its Knitting, No Surprises Reviewed by Marc Chandler on July 26, 2018 Rating: 5
Edit

Equities like EU-US Trade Truce more than the Euro

July 26, 2018
The markets generated a collective sigh when Juncker and Trump announced that there would be no new tariffs while new trade negotiations took place.  This was particularly important because Trump reportedly wanted to press ahead with a 25% tariff on car imports.  It was also announced that the EU would buy more soy and liquid natural gas from the …
Equities like EU-US Trade Truce more than the Euro Equities like EU-US Trade Truce more than the Euro Reviewed by Marc Chandler on July 26, 2018 Rating: 5
Edit

Great Graphic: US 2-year Premium Grows and Outlook for G3 Central Banks

July 25, 2018
A cry was heard last week when President Trump expressed displeasure with the Fed's rate hikes.  Some, like former Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers, claimed that this was another step toward becoming a "banana republic."  Jeffrey Sachs, another noted economist, claimed that "American democracy is probably one more war away fr…
Great Graphic: US 2-year Premium Grows and Outlook for G3 Central Banks Great Graphic: US 2-year Premium Grows and Outlook for G3 Central Banks Reviewed by Marc Chandler on July 25, 2018 Rating: 5
Subscribe to: Posts ( Atom )
Powered by Blogger.