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Emerging Markets: What Changed

August 31, 2018
(from my colleague Dr. Win Thin)

China stepped up efforts to attract more foreign inflows to the onshore bond market.Russia has softened its unpopular pension reform proposal.The African National Congress withdrew an existing land expropriation bill.Moody’s downgraded twenty Turkish financial institutions.Turkey central bank Deputy Governor Erkan …
Emerging Markets: What Changed Emerging Markets: What Changed Reviewed by Marc Chandler on August 31, 2018 Rating: 5
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Month-End Adjustments and Tentative Stabilization in Emerging Markets Ease Demand for Dollars but Not Yen Month-End Adjustments and Tentative Stabilization in Emerging Markets Ease Demand for Dollars but Not Yen Reviewed by Marc Chandler on August 31, 2018 Rating: 5
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The Big Picture 18-24-Month Outlook: Some Preliminary Projections

August 30, 2018
The winding down of the North's summer provides a suitable time to consider not the near-term outlook, which many investors do on a daily basis, but to reflect on where we are heading down the road a bit.  What will the next 18-24 months hold?  Of course, we harbor no illusions of prescient vision and accept the hazards of the assignment and s…
The Big Picture 18-24-Month Outlook: Some Preliminary Projections The Big Picture 18-24-Month Outlook: Some Preliminary Projections Reviewed by Marc Chandler on August 30, 2018 Rating: 5
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Brexit Optimism Underpins Sterling

August 30, 2018
The US dollar is mostly firmer, while global equities are softer and bonds little changed.  The Turkish lira and South African rand remain under pressures.  However, there does not appear to be an overall theme in today's markets.  
Disappointing data from Australia and New Zealand has seen the Antipodean currencies move lower.  New Zealand'…
Brexit Optimism Underpins Sterling Brexit Optimism Underpins Sterling Reviewed by Marc Chandler on August 30, 2018 Rating: 5
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Dollar Finds Support, but Downside Correction May Not be Over

August 29, 2018
The US dollar has steadied after pulling back in recent days, but the downside correction does not appear complete, and month-end flows are still a risk to picking a dollar-bottom. 
The Australian dollar is the weakest of the majors.  The main drag is paradoxically Westpac, one of  Australia's largest banks, raised the variable rate mortgage by…
Dollar Finds Support, but Downside Correction May Not be Over Dollar Finds Support, but Downside Correction May Not be Over Reviewed by Marc Chandler on August 29, 2018 Rating: 5
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Greenback Remains On Defensive

August 28, 2018
Corrective forces continue to weigh on the US dollar.  Sometimes the narratives drive the price action and sometimes the price action drives the narratives.  Currently the latter appears to hold sway.

The dollar's downside correction began around the middle of the month, well before Powell's August 24 Jackson Hole speech.  The Fed funds fut…
Greenback Remains On Defensive Greenback Remains On Defensive Reviewed by Marc Chandler on August 28, 2018 Rating: 5
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A Dog Day of Summer

August 27, 2018
Last week's dollar losses were initially extended in Asia before it came back bid.  The euro briefly poked through $1.1650 for the first time in three weeks.  However, the gains were sold into, and the euro finished the Asian session near $1.16, where there is a 782 mln euro option expiring, and  2.4 bln euros struck at $1.1625.  Even the firs…
A Dog Day of Summer A Dog Day of Summer Reviewed by Marc Chandler on August 27, 2018 Rating: 5
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Emerging Markets: Week Ahead Preview

August 26, 2018
(from my colleague Dr. Win Thin)
EM FX was whipsawed last week but ended on a firm note.  We look past the noise and believe that the true signals for EM remain higher US interest rates and continued trade tensions, both of which are negative.  Turkish markets reopen after a week off.  Nothing fundamentally has changed there, and so it still poses…
Emerging Markets: Week Ahead Preview Emerging Markets: Week Ahead Preview Reviewed by Marc Chandler on August 26, 2018 Rating: 5
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Macroeconomic Considerations

August 26, 2018
The force that had pushed the US 10-year Treasury yield to 3% and the dollar above JPY113 at the start of the month, and the euro to $1.13 a couple of weeks ago has dissipated.  The 10-year yield is near 2.80%.  The dollar was near two-month lows against the yen a week ago, and the euro was back toward the middle of its previous $1.15-$1.18 tradin…
Macroeconomic Considerations Macroeconomic Considerations Reviewed by Marc Chandler on August 26, 2018 Rating: 5
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Dollar's Correction may have More Room to Run

August 25, 2018
As the US dollar appeared to break higher, we noted that it was overextended.  Against most of the major currencies, it was beyond its Bollinger Bands, set at two standard deviations around the 20-day moving average.  The correction that began mid-August does not appear over, implying a heavier technical bias for the dollar in the days ahead.
It lo…
Dollar's Correction may have More Room to Run Dollar's Correction may have More Room to Run Reviewed by Marc Chandler on August 25, 2018 Rating: 5
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Emerging Markets: What Changed

August 24, 2018
(from my colleague Dr. Win Thin)

The PBOC will resume use of the counter-cyclical factor for the CNY fix.Thailand junta leader announced that elections are likely on February 24.Russia will issue new economic forecasts next week that will likely reflect the negative impact of sanctions.Russia central bank suspended its FX purchases through the end…
Emerging Markets: What Changed Emerging Markets: What Changed Reviewed by Marc Chandler on August 24, 2018 Rating: 5
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