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Drivers: The Week Ahead

September 30, 2018
Four events stand out in the first week of October:  the situation in Italy, UK Prime Minister May's speech at the Tory Party Conference, the EMU PMI, and the US jobs data.  We suspect that the market overreacted to the Italian government's 2.4% deficit projection.  It is not an unreasonable outcome given the election.  Italy may still ver…
Drivers: The Week Ahead Drivers: The Week Ahead Reviewed by Marc Chandler on September 30, 2018 Rating: 5
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Fed and Italy Lift Dollar Tone

September 29, 2018
Overview:  We had anticipated that the dollar's downside correction against the European currencies was over or nearly so and looked for the dollar to find better traction.  The Dollar Index held above the previous week's low.  The euro's high for the week was recorded on Monday near $1.1815.  With the weight of Brexit, sterling was un…
Fed and Italy Lift Dollar Tone Fed and Italy Lift Dollar Tone Reviewed by Marc Chandler on September 29, 2018 Rating: 5
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Dollar Remains Firm While Italy is Punished

September 28, 2018
Overview:  The US dollar's post-Fed gains have been extended, though the upside momentum appears to be stalling.  Japan's Nikkei advanced 1.35% on the back of the yen's declines and reached its highest level since 1991.  Chinese shares (A and H) rallied amid reports that MSCI and FTSE-Russell are boosting Chinese shares in their benchm…
Dollar Remains Firm While Italy is Punished Dollar Remains Firm While Italy is Punished Reviewed by Marc Chandler on September 28, 2018 Rating: 5
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Greenback Firms

September 27, 2018
Overview:  The US dollar is firmer against all the major currencies and most emerging market currencies, extending the recovery seen after the Federal Reserve's rate hike.  Despite the poor finish for US equities yesterday and declines in Japanese and Chinese shares today, the MSCI Asia Pacific Index eked out a small gain.  European bourses we…
Greenback Firms Greenback Firms Reviewed by Marc Chandler on September 27, 2018 Rating: 5
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Fed Delivers, Market Yawns

September 26, 2018
The Federal Reserve did what it was widely to do.  The fed funds target range was lifted 25 bp to 2.00-2.25%.  Three-quarters of Fed officials anticipate a hike in December.  The market had discounted around an 80% chance.  The Fed sticks with the three rate hikes in 2019 and one in 2020.  The year-end rate in 2021 is the same as in 2020.  The Fed…
Fed Delivers, Market Yawns Fed Delivers, Market Yawns Reviewed by Marc Chandler on September 26, 2018 Rating: 5
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The Dollar Index has Fallen Four of the Five Times the FOMC met this Year

September 26, 2018
Overview:  The US dollar is trading with a softer bias in tight ranges.  The euro and sterling have been confined to yesterday's ranges, while the greenback briefly traded above JPY113.00 for the first time in two months.  The South African rand and Turkish lira are leading the most emerging market currencies higher.   Asian equities moved hig…
The Dollar Index has Fallen Four of the Five Times the FOMC met this Year The Dollar Index has Fallen Four of the Five Times the FOMC met this Year Reviewed by Marc Chandler on September 26, 2018 Rating: 5
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Greenback Remains at the Fulcrum

September 25, 2018
Overview:  The major currencies are mixed in quiet turnover. Most of the European currencies are firmer, while the dollar-bloc currencies, yen and Swiss franc are softer.  Emerging market currencies are steady to higher, though there are a few exceptions in Asia, where the Indonesian rupiah and the Chinese yuan are off about 0.3%, while the Indian…
Greenback Remains at the Fulcrum Greenback Remains at the Fulcrum Reviewed by Marc Chandler on September 25, 2018 Rating: 5
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Mixed Start to Busy Week

September 24, 2018
Market Overview: Holidays in Japan, China, South Korea, and Taiwan made for a slow start to the last week of Q3 18.  The US dollar is mixed, gaining against the dollar-bloc currencies, yen and Swiss franc, slipping against the European complex.  With China formally canceling trade talks with the US as the next round of tariffs kick-in (10% on $200…
Mixed Start to Busy Week Mixed Start to Busy Week Reviewed by Marc Chandler on September 24, 2018 Rating: 5
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Next Week's Drivers

September 23, 2018
It is a testament to the Federal Reserves communication and the evolution of investors' understanding that we can say that the rate hike that the central bank will deliver is not as important as what it says.  A rate hike is a foregone conclusion.  According to the CME's model, there is about an 85% chance of December hike discounted as we…
Next Week's Drivers Next Week's Drivers Reviewed by Marc Chandler on September 23, 2018 Rating: 5
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Greenback's Downside Correction is Over, or Nearly So

September 22, 2018
The US dollar fell against most of the major currencies last week, the notable exception of the Japanese yen.  The greenback has trended higher against the yen, bolstered by the rise in US rates and equity market gains, including last week's 2.2% rally in the battered MSCI Emerging Markets Index.  The pound managed to eke out a minor gain of l…
Greenback's Downside Correction is Over, or Nearly So Greenback's Downside Correction is Over, or Nearly So Reviewed by Marc Chandler on September 22, 2018 Rating: 5
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The Mixed Performance Makes it Difficult to Talk about The Dollar

September 21, 2018
Sometimes the dollar is the key mover, but sometimes, like today, it seems to be the fulcrum, reflecting disparate moves among other currencies.  While the euro is at two-month highs, the yen is near two-month lows.   The euro is bouncing off two-month lows and the 100-day moving average against sterling.   Most emerging market currencies are adva…
The Mixed Performance Makes it Difficult to Talk about The Dollar The Mixed Performance Makes it Difficult to Talk about The Dollar Reviewed by Marc Chandler on September 21, 2018 Rating: 5
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