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Brexit Update

July 31, 2019
The October 31 deadline for the UK to leave the EU is less than 100 days away.  The new Prime Minister is beginning to convince others that that UK will, in fact, leave at the end of October.   PredictIt.Org shows the odds of the UK leaving has risen to almost 50% from about a 33% chance a month ago.   Here is a summary of where the situation stan…
Brexit Update Brexit Update Reviewed by Marc Chandler on July 31, 2019 Rating: 5
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Sterling Steadies, Attention Shifts to FOMC

July 31, 2019
Overview:  After a shellacking in recent days, sterling has stabilized though there is not much of a bounce to speak of, suggesting the adjustment to the risk of a no-deal Brexit may not be complete.  After the S&P 500 posted back-to-back declines, Asia Pacific equities struggled.  Hong Kong shares led the regional decline. European stocks are…
Sterling Steadies, Attention Shifts to FOMC Sterling Steadies, Attention Shifts to FOMC Reviewed by Marc Chandler on July 31, 2019 Rating: 5
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Sterling Pounded

July 30, 2019
Overview:  The prospect of a no-deal Brexit continues to pound sterling lower.  A little more than two months ago, it was testing $1.32.  Two weeks ago it was around $1.25.  Today it traded near $1.2120 before stabilizing.  On the other hand, the 10-year Gilt yield is below 65 bp, a new multiyear low, while the international-laden FTSE 100 is hold…
Sterling Pounded Sterling Pounded Reviewed by Marc Chandler on July 30, 2019 Rating: 5
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Prospects of a No-Deal Brexit Weigh on Sterling

July 29, 2019
Overview:  Unrest in Hong Kong and disappointing earnings reports from South Korea weighed on local equity markets, and the MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell for the third consecutive session.  European equities are edging higher in tentative trading.  The Dow Jones Stoxx 600 is firmer for the sixth session of the past seven.  US shares are little chan…
Prospects of a No-Deal Brexit Weigh on Sterling Prospects of a No-Deal Brexit Weigh on Sterling Reviewed by Marc Chandler on July 29, 2019 Rating: 5
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Dollar Pressing Against Key Levels

July 28, 2019
The dollar gained against most of the world's currencies last week. With a few sessions left in July,  the greenback has advanced against the major and all but a handful of emerging market currencies. It rose to new highs for the year at the end of last week against sterling.  The risk of a no-deal exit has increased with the new UK's new…
Dollar Pressing Against Key Levels Dollar Pressing Against Key Levels Reviewed by Marc Chandler on July 28, 2019 Rating: 5
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The FOMC and US Jobs Headline the Week Ahead

July 27, 2019
There is little doubt that the Federal Reserve will ease monetary policy at the conclusion of the FOMC meeting on July 31.  We never thought the chances of a 50 bp move were anything but negligible, though even at this late stage, the market appears to be pricing in about a one-in-five chance. 
Although a minority, and maybe worth a dissent or two…
The FOMC and US Jobs Headline the Week Ahead The FOMC and US Jobs Headline the Week Ahead Reviewed by Marc Chandler on July 27, 2019 Rating: 5
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Markets Consolidate as the Dollar Index Extends its Advance for the Sixth Consecutive Session Markets Consolidate as the Dollar Index Extends its Advance for the Sixth Consecutive Session Reviewed by Marc Chandler on July 26, 2019 Rating: 5
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Seven Points on the ECB and the Price Action

July 25, 2019
1. As soon as it was clear that the ECB was not easing today, the euro began to recover, after making a marginal new low for the year (just above $1.11).
2.Draghi made it clear that easing was going to be delivered in September and on several fronts including rates (with mitigating measures like tiering) and new asset purchases (not decided on in…
Seven Points on the ECB and the Price Action Seven Points on the ECB and the Price Action Reviewed by Marc Chandler on July 25, 2019 Rating: 5
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ECB Takes Center Stage

July 25, 2019
Overview:   The euro remains stuck in its trough below $1.1150 ahead of the ECB meeting.  The US dollar is firmer against most of the major currencies.  The yen continues to resist the draw of the greenback.  Most emerging market currencies are lower.  The Turkish lira is weaker ahead of its central bank meeting, which is expected to deliver a lar…
ECB Takes Center Stage ECB Takes Center Stage Reviewed by Marc Chandler on July 25, 2019 Rating: 5
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