The focus shifts in
the week ahead away from central banks directly and toward the macro data at
the start of the year. It is
about real sector data and prices. However, the US warned late Friday
that Russia will invade Ukraine as early as next week. Reports suggested Putin
made the decision and told his top aides. Russia of course denied
it. Indeed, Putin may score a victory of sorts by not invading and making
the Americans look like they are crying wolf (again).
The knee-jerk reaction in the markets seen on the US
warning is understandable even if exaggerated. The markets did not respond nearly as dramatically in
2008 when Russia invaded Georgia or in 2014 when Moscow sponsored and fomented
a separatist effort in Ukraine and annexed Crimea. However, in case of the
failure of the enhanced deterrent efforts, anything may be possible. And not
just in the European theater but other actors thinking there is a significant
distraction that they may pursue their own agenda. Moreover, Putin's
full agenda may not be known immediately. Some strategists think that if
Russian forces invade, they may stop at the Dnieper River.
The market seems to fear a disruption in the energy
prices. March WTI rallied
almost 3.6% ahead of the weekend, which saw it recoup the week's losses and
make new multiyear highs near $94.65. It was the eighth consecutive
weekly advance. US natural gas prices rallied but the March
contract still slipped lower ahead of the weekend. European gas prices
may be a different story.
Some grain prices also rallied in fears of loss of supply. May wheat futures jumped 3.25% before the
weekend, the largest increase in nearly a month. Around 22% of Russia's
arable land (which is only around 7%-8% of Russia land) is used to grow
wheat.
Until the pre-weekend drama, the key development was
aggressiveness that the market was pricing in central bank action. The swaps market is pricing in almost 70 bp of
ECB tightening over the next 12 months, with the Fed going 170 bp, after last
week's CPI print. The violent adjustment to the outlook for the
European Central Bank and the Federal Reserve may be nearly over.
St. Louis Fed's Bullard, the leading hawk, who called for 100 bp of hikes by
here in H1 (three FOMC meetings) will appear on CNBC around 8:30 am ET
Monday. Given the market's reaction to his earlier comments, some expect
him to tone it down, though his comments seemed pretty clear. The FOMC
minutes from last month's meeting will be scrutinized for insight in how the
Fed was thinking about the maximum flexibility they have achieved.
The Board of Governors meets in a regularly scheduled
meeting on Monday. Among the
issue the Board of Governors may discuss is the discount rate. It
is not really a discount but a penalty rate for not being able to go to the
market for funds. It is ostensibly the cap on the short-term rates and is
set now at 25 bp. It seems a possible lever for the Fed to pull considering
the sharp market reaction to the CPI. The University of Michigan's
consumer survey of long-term inflation expectations remained at the cyclical
high of 3.1%, while the shorter-term (one-year) ticked up to 5.0%, a new high
after bouncing between 4.8% and 4.9% in the last four months of 2021. One
way to signal its intent and at a low cost is to hike the discount rate. It
would have to be requested by a regional Fed branch, but it is not a stretch to
see someone like Bullard doing so.
While an aggressive path of monetary tightening has been
discounted, there is another dimension to the normalization process in this
cycle: the central banks' balance sheets. The March ECB meeting will lay out new thinking about
the Asset Purchases Program that was intended to double to 40 bln euros a month
in Q2 after the Pandemic Emergency Program ends next month. The Bank of
England's balance sheet will begin shrinking next month.
The details have yet to be announced, but the Federal
Reserve and the Bank of Canada are expected to begin allowing their balance
sheets to unwind passively by not fully recycling maturing proceeds. One US-based bank estimates that in the 12-month
period starting in May, "G4" central bank balance sheets will be
reduced by around $2 trillion. This is about four-times more than the
largest 12-month decline recorded in the 2018-2019 period. To defend its
Yield-Curve Control cap for the 10-year bond, the BOJ has pre-announced its
willingness on Monday to purchase an unlimited amount of bonds at the 0.25% ceiling.
Fiscal policy will also be less accommodative. According to OECD figures, the US and UK budget
deficits are likely to fall by 3.6-3.7 percentage points. It has
the-aggregate EMU deficit falling by almost 4 percentage points. Most
dramatic is the reduction in Canada's fiscal shortfall. The OECD
projects the deficit falling to 1.6% of GDP from 13.1% in 2021. The
market is a little less sanguine, and according to the median forecast in
Bloomberg's survey, the deficit may fall to 2.7% of GDP, which would still a
marked development. Japan stands out as an exception here too. The
OECD has Japan's budget deficit edging higher this year to 6.9% from 6.4%.
II
The US real sector data in the week ahead includes January
retail sales and industrial production. The key take away is that a recovery from a weak December
is likely. We already know that auto sales jumped back, well more than
expected. The 15.04 mln unit seasonally adjusted annual pace represented
a nearly 21% increase from December. The median forecast (median
Bloomberg survey) was for about a 4.5% increase. It was the most vehicle
sales in seven months, but it was still about 10% lower than a January 2021 and
was the weakest January since 2014.
While auto sales (and higher gasoline prices) may have
flattered the headline retail sales (median forecast in Bloomberg survey 1.7%
after -1.9% in December) the details may look poor. Given the unprecedented pandemic, seasonal
adjustments, like with the employment data, may add an extra layer of
distortion. Excluding auto and gasoline, the rise in retail sales may be
a third of the headline. The core measure that also excludes food
services and building materials group may be rising an uninspiring 0.4% after
plummeting 3.1% in December. Retail sales account for about 40% of the
household consumption (PCE) and underrepresents services.
January industrial output figures are released on February
16. It rose by an average of
0.6% in Q4 21, its best quarter of last year, even after slipping by 0.1% in
December. It is expected to have risen by 0.4% in January. The
extractive industries and utilities likely pulled their weight.
Manufacturing output is expected to have risen by 0.2% after declining by 0.3%
in December. Despite what may be an uninspiring report, the capacity
utilization rate is expected to make new Covid-era highs near 76.8%. In
January 2021, it was slightly below 75%. At the end of 2019, the capacity
utilization rate was trending lower after peaking in 2018 above 79.5%.
Recall that while headline growth in Q4 was an impressive
6.9% annualized, trade and inventories accounted for nearly three quarters of
the growth. Final sales to
domestic purchases rose 1.9% after 1.3% in Q3. Production and imports
replenished inventories. A jump in business inventories (~.15% in
December after 1.3% in November) will confirm that Q4 22 likely set the record
for re-stocking. It may not be such an important tailwind going
forward. Elsewhere, the weather and virus may have weighed on housing starts.
January may have experienced the first decline since September. New home
sales are expected to have fallen for the second consecutive month.
At the risk of burying the lead, the year-over-year measure
of producer prices likely fell for the second consecutive month in
January. The key factor
is the base effect. In January 2021, headline PPI rose by 1.2%.
This will drop out of the year-over-year comparison and is expected to be
replaced by a 0.5% gain. This is still elevated, but less so. If accurate,
the year-over-year rate will fall to around 9%. It peaked last November
at 9.8%. The core rate, which excludes food and energy may have risen by
around 0.4% last month, which would allow the headline rate to push back toward
7.8% after peaking in December at 8.3%.
III
There are two other measures of UK prices out next week. First is the earnings data in the labor market report.
BOE Governor Bailey asked workers to show restraint in seeking wage increases
when he spoke after the BOE meeting. Some suggested that it may be at
odds with the government's desire for strong wage economy. However,
despite the instability of the relationship between the labor market and
inflation, when you push many central bankers, you get some version of the
Philipps Curve. The ECB's Chief Economist Lane recently said he saw
wages as central to the inflation outlook, but at least he allowed for
productivity gains. If higher energy prices are driving headline
inflation, it is not clear how this a wage-push story. If the lack of
chips and other supply chain disruptions are lifting prices, the role of labor
is not obvious. If businesses were simply passing on higher input costs, corporate earnings would not have accelerated.
Still, we must take the reaction function of the BOE seriously,
and an increase in average weekly earnings.
The swaps market is pricing in almost 140 bp of tightening over the next 12
months. It expects the tightening cycle to be fairly short even if
steep. It is expecting the terminal rate of around 2%. Of
course, the balance sheet is being brought into play in a passive way with the
base rate at 50 bp, but could accelerate the unwind and could be more active,
i.e., outright liquidation.
The other price measure that the UK publishes are the producer
prices. There are two indices. One
for the price inputs into manufactured goods and the other tracks output prices
for manufactured goods. Hence, it may say more about profit-margins than
inflation per se. Input prices rose 13.5% in December, easing from the
peak (so far) at 15.2% last November. Even with December's 0.2%
month-over-month decline, the input prices rose by an average of 1.1% a month
last year. Output prices rose 9.3% last year. The peak was in
November at 9.4%. It was the first decline in 14 months. If input
prices rise by less than 1.1% and output prices by less than 0.7%, the
year-over-year pace will decelerate again, but of course both will remain at
elevated levels.
The Reserve Bank of Australia also hitches its monetary policy to
the labor market. Its January
employment report will be released early on February 17 in Canberra. A
flattish report is expected. The RBA is ending its bond buying
operations, but it is still pushing back against ideas that it is on the verge
hiking rates. The swaps market and the cash rate futures have completely priced
in a hike in July.
The policy rate stands at 0.10%.
The market is pricing in almost 1.3% by the end of the year. Covid sent ripples through the Australian labor market in August-October last year when it
"lost" about 355k jobs and grew them (366k) back in
November. All told, Australia added 375k jobs last
year. The vast majority (~356k) were full-time positions. To
affect the reaction function of the RBA, an acceleration in jobs and wages are
needed.
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