Overview: The Lunar New Year holiday has shut many
centers in Asia until the middle of the week, though China's mainland is on
holiday all week. The signaling of a downshift in the pace of Fed tightening by
some notable hawks helped lift risk appetites ahead of the weekend and saw the
S&P 500 snap a four-day decline. Ahead of the weekend the NASDAQ posted its
single biggest advance since last November. The downtrend line drawn of January
2022 highs in the S&P 500 is found near 4010 today. US equity futures are
little changed. Europe's Stoxx 600 is posting a small gain. Benchmark 10-year
yields are trading with a firmer bias and are up mostly 2-3 bp.
In contrast to the signals of a
quarter-point hike next week by the Fed, the ECB has pre-committed to 50 bp and
the hawks are pressing for another 50 bp in March. Earlier this month, some
reports seemed to suggest a case was building for a 25 bp move in March. The
divergence helped lift the euro above $1.09 today for the first time since last
April, but it is struggling to maintain the momentum in the European morning. The
economic calendar in North America is light today and the quiet period ahead of
next week's FOMC meeting means no Fed officials will speak on the record.
Asia Pacific
The Bank of Japan offered
commercial banks JPY1 trillion (~$7.7 bln) five-year loans at 0.145%, a few
basis points lower than the five-year JGB yields interest rate to buy
government bonds. It is
the longest-term so far and was over-subscribed by a little more than
three-time. It is a collateralized loan, and the facility has been around for
over a decade, though the outstanding amount was around JPY466 bln at the end
of last year. Last week, the BOJ increased the flexibility of this facility and
Governor Kuroda indicated that it could consider a making such loans at a
negative rate, if needed. Separately, note that non-commercials (speculators)
in the futures market continue to reduce the net short yen position. It has
been halved from around 46.9k contracts at the end of last year to about as of
January 17. That is the smallest since February 2021. Each contract is for
JPY12.5 mln (~$97k)
Separately, it is not clear
what to make of the news that the government representatives attending the BOJ
meeting in December, when it surprised everyone by expanding the band of the
10-year JGB and increasing it bond purchases, asked for a short recess. The recess lasted slightly more than a
half-an-hour toward the end of meeting. Government representatives at BOJ
meetings is not uncommon and their presence did not change the outcome.
Nor was the recess unprecedented, according to reports.
The dollar is trading inside
the pre-week range against the Japanese yen (~JPY128.35-JPY130.30) in quiet
turnover. The 20-day
moving average is near JPY131 today, and the dollar has not closed above it
since early November. Last week's low was around JPY127.25, its lowest level
since last May. The Australian dollar's pre-weekend advance has been
extended and it is trying to establish a foothold above $0.7000, which has so
far eluded it despite intraday penetration last week. It reached
almost $0.7065 last Wednesday before reversing lower and settling around
$0.6935. The stretched intraday momentum indicators caution against chasing it
today. China's mainland markets are closed all week and the dollar has
drifted lower against the offshore yuan, but it remains within the pre-weekend
range. The greenback settled against the onshore yuan near CNY6.7845 before
the holiday.
Europe
There are three developments
to note over the weekend. First, Germany and France seemed to agree on the need for a
European response to the roughly $500 bln tax and subsidies the US has approved
for EV, batteries, and semiconductors. This, coupled with EC President
von der Leyen's endorsement of a "Green Deal Industrial Plan" sets
the stage for next month's summit. However, the tension within Europe is
between large countries with fiscal space and others that are smaller and
limited space to spend. The risk is fragmentation of the internal market, and
this speaks to the need for an EU-level program, which could include a new
funding by the European Investment Bank. State aid rules also may be adjusted
and allow for fast-tracking clean energy initiatives. To be sure, the spur to
action is not just about countering the competitive challenge of the US. There
is also the recognition of the challenge posed by China, with its heavy
subsidies and restrictions to market access.
Secondly, while still
stopping short of sending its Leopard tanks to Ukraine, Germany's foreign
ministry indicated it would not block others, specifically Poland, from sending
its Leopard tanks. Russia's
military advances, coupled with international pressure for Germany to relent,
seems to be softening its position. The German government does not yet appear
to have made the position official and some reports suggest it is now in the
economic ministry's hands. Reports also indicate that Poland has not yet
formally made a request. Poland has indicated it was prepared to send its 14
Leopard tanks, in coalition with others, to Kyiv. Germany new defense minister
Pistorius acknowledged for what apparently was the first time that Ukraine
needs tanks to recapture territory taken by Russia.
Third, in contrast to some
signals from some Fed hawks, including Governor Waller, that a quarter-point
move next week may be appropriate, ECB hawks are still pushing for a half-point
move next week and in March. Both the Dutch and Finnish central bank presidents advocated the
larger moves. The US premium over Germany for two-year borrowings is near the
recent trough of 160 bp. It peaked last August a little shy of 280 bp.
The euro poked above $1.0925
in holiday-thin Asian turnover, pulled back to around $1.0890 and tried again
and made in early Europe but stalled in front of the earlier high. Some buying may have been related to the
nearly 1 bln euro option that expires today at $1.0925. As we have noted, the
$1.0940 area corresponds to the (61.8%) retracement of the euro's losses since
the peak on January 6, 2021. There are options for 775 mln euros at $1.0950
that expire Thursday. It may require losses through $1.0860-80 to be of note. For
its part, sterling drew slightly nearer $1.2450, and took out the mid-December
high by a couple of hundredths of a cent in Asia but has been offered in the
European morning. It has returned to session lows near $1.2370. The
low at the end of last week was set near $1.2335, and a break, and especially a
close below this could sour the technical tone.
America
Quietly, the average retail
price of gasoline has been creeping higher. It bottomed as few days before Christmas
near around $3.10 a gallon and is now poking about $3.40. Recall that it peaked
near $5 a gallon last June. The pullback helped reduce headline inflation. Some
refinery outages in New Jersey and the Gulf Coast contributed and the price of
crude oil has also risen, ostensibly on anticipation of Chinese demand. February
WTI bottomed near $70 in early December and settled last week at its highest
close ($81.30) since mid-November. The continued rise in gasoline prices comes
despite the build of 3.5 mln barrels reported last week (for the week ending
January 13) twice what was expected. It follows a 4.1 mln-barrel increase the
previous week. US crude inventories have surged by nearly 27.4 mln barrels in
the first two weeks of the year. That is the biggest increase in a two-week
period since late-Feb-early March 2021. US crude stocks are about 3% above the
five-year average.
The busy week begins off
slowly today with the December leading economic indicators, which we noted have
fallen every month through November last year but February. The highlight of the week may be the first
estimate of Q4 GDP Thursday and the PCE deflator on Friday. The Bank of Canada
meets Wednesday, and the swaps market is pricing in around an 80% chance of a
quarter-point hike, which is seen at the last in the cycle. Reports that Brazil
and Argentina will officially launch the preparatory work for a common currency
has captured attention, but we are skeptical that it will be launched anytime
soon.
The US dollar peaked against
the Canadian dollar last Thursday near CAD1.3520 and settled last week by
CAD1.3375. Follow-through
selling has taken to almost CAD1.3340 today. The month's low was closer to
CAD1.3320. A break of that area could retarget the low from the middle of last
November around CAD1.3225. Intraday momentum indicators are stretched, and we
envision a return to the CAD1.3380-CAD1.3400 area in the North American morning.
The greenback spiked from MXN18.5665 to MXN19.11 last Wednesday-Thursday
before pulling back ahead of the weekend. We do not see a macro development
behind the sharp price action and suspect it had more to do with market
positioning. The carry remains attractive, and despite some measures by AMLO,
Mexico still looks relatively stable compared to several other countries in the
region. It is also protected by the USMCA under the US green subsidies. The
next downside corrective target is near MXN18.7750.
Disclaimer