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September 2024 Monthly

August 31, 2024
As the summer in the Northern Hemisphere gives way to the fall, monetary policy and politics will shape the investment and business climate. Even if history does not repeat itself, there are still insights to be gleaned. In the last few months of 2023, the market expected aggressive interest rate cuts this year. Although global rates fell, the dol…
September 2024 Monthly September 2024 Monthly Reviewed by Marc Chandler on August 31, 2024 Rating: 5
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Corrective Forces Weigh on G10 Currencies, with the Euro Threatening its Largest Loss in Two Months Corrective Forces Weigh on G10 Currencies, with the Euro Threatening its Largest Loss in Two Months Reviewed by Marc Chandler on August 28, 2024 Rating: 5
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Sterling Shines

August 27, 2024
Overview: The US dollar is softer against all the G10 currencies but the Japanese yen. Sterling is leading the advance and is at new two-year highs, knocking on $1.3250. More generally, the dollar's consolidative tone remains intact, but it looks like a pause rather than a reversal, especially against the dollar-bloc currencies. The weaker yen…
Sterling Shines Sterling Shines Reviewed by Marc Chandler on August 27, 2024 Rating: 5
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USD is Trading Mostly Firmer, but Yen and Swiss Franc Show Resilience

August 26, 2024
Overview: The US dollar is mostly firmer, though consolidating against most of the G10 currencies. The Japanese yen and Swiss franc are the strongest, while the Scandis and Antipodean currencies are the heaviest. Among emerging market currencies, a handful of Asian currencies, including the Chinese yuan are higher, but central European currencies,…
USD is Trading Mostly Firmer, but Yen and Swiss Franc Show Resilience USD is Trading Mostly Firmer, but Yen and Swiss Franc Show Resilience Reviewed by Marc Chandler on August 26, 2024 Rating: 5
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Week Ahead: Inflation Gauges and Stretched US Dollar Drop

August 24, 2024
In the middle of last week, the Fed funds futures discounted 103 bp of cuts this year. There was some movement but after Fed Chair Powell’s, but the market finished the week with 104 bp of cuts priced into the Fed funds futures curve. The two-year note yield settled at a three-week low and the dollar slumped. The Dollar Index's 1.7% lost last …
Week Ahead: Inflation Gauges and Stretched US Dollar Drop Week Ahead: Inflation Gauges and Stretched US Dollar Drop Reviewed by Marc Chandler on August 24, 2024 Rating: 5
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What Can Powell Say that the Markets Do Not Already Know?

August 23, 2024
Overview: The US is consolidating with a softer profile against most G10 and emerging market currencies today, ahead of Fed Chair Powell's speech at Jackson Hole (10 AM ET). He is unlikely to go much beyond confirming what the market already thinks it knows: namely, that the first rate cut will be delivered next month. By acknowledging that th…
What Can Powell Say that the Markets Do Not Already Know? What Can Powell Say that the Markets Do Not Already Know? Reviewed by Marc Chandler on August 23, 2024 Rating: 5
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The Dollar and Rates Come Back Firmer

August 22, 2024
Overview:  The US dollar's decline continued yesterday after the steep jobs’ revision and an unusual solid auction of the Treasury's 20-year bond. The minutes from the recent meeting confirmed that the FOMC will begin its easing cycle next month. The dollar is mostly firmer today. The market has looked through the stronger than expected eu…
The Dollar and Rates Come Back Firmer The Dollar and Rates Come Back Firmer Reviewed by Marc Chandler on August 22, 2024 Rating: 5
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