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May 2025 Monthly

April 26, 2025
The global economy has entered a phase of heightened uncertainty, and at the center of this instability stands the United States. In a reversal of its traditional role as a pillar of predictability and leadership, the U.S. has adopted an erratic posture—rife with sudden feints, policy reversals, and institutional strain. Nowhere is this more evide…
May 2025 Monthly May 2025 Monthly Reviewed by Marc Chandler on April 26, 2025 Rating: 5
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Hulk Smash Dollar

April 21, 2025
(Business travel will interrupt the regular commentary this week. It will return on April 26 with the May monthly. We apologize for the disruption. Thank you for your patience. Good luck.) 
Overview: In thin markets, the dollar has been stomach-punched. It is off by more than 1% against six of the G10 currencies today. The Canadian dollar is the wo…
Hulk Smash Dollar Hulk Smash Dollar Reviewed by Marc Chandler on April 21, 2025 Rating: 5
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Week Ahead: Manic Activity Restrained, but Could Return

April 19, 2025
Last week, the capital markets were not as manic as the previous week but the uncertainty stemming from Washington remains intense. Outside of tariffs on Mexican tomatoes, the US tariffs were not extended but new investigations were opened that will likely lead to more tariffs down the road. President Trump hinted at the possibility of a postponem…
Week Ahead: Manic Activity Restrained, but Could Return Week Ahead: Manic Activity Restrained, but Could Return Reviewed by Marc Chandler on April 19, 2025 Rating: 5
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Yuan and Why

April 18, 2025
With the U.S. imposing aggressive tariffs on Chinese goods, conventional wisdom suggests that Beijing will retaliate with a sharp devaluation of the yuan to counter the economic shock. But this assumption is flawed. The level of devaluation required to fully offset tariffs exceeding 100% would be extreme, risking financial instability and undermin…
Yuan and Why Yuan and Why Reviewed by Marc Chandler on April 18, 2025 Rating: 5
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The ECB Wants to Make it a Good Thursday

April 17, 2025
Overview: The dollar is firm against most of the G10 currencies, but well within recent ranges. Liquidity is likely to dry up quickly after the ECB meeting, which is widely expected to result in a quarter-point cut, ahead of tomorrow's holiday for much of Europe and North America. Many centers in Europe, including the UK are on holiday Monday …
The ECB Wants to Make it a Good Thursday The ECB Wants to Make it a Good Thursday Reviewed by Marc Chandler on April 17, 2025 Rating: 5
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Short Reprieve is Over, Volatility is Back, and Dollar and Equities Slump

April 16, 2025
Overview:  The reprieve from the angst of the trade war lasted a couple of days but it has returned following Beijing's actions against Boeing and the US requiring Nvidia to get export licenses to sell its H20 chip, designed to meet the previous restrictions on China. ASML's disappointing orders and results adds the concerns. The US celebr…
Short Reprieve is Over, Volatility is Back, and Dollar and Equities Slump Short Reprieve is Over, Volatility is Back, and Dollar and Equities Slump Reviewed by Marc Chandler on April 16, 2025 Rating: 5
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Markets Consolidate, but Nervously So, Remaining One Social Media Post Away from Euphoria or Doom Markets Consolidate, but Nervously So, Remaining One Social Media Post Away from Euphoria or Doom Reviewed by Marc Chandler on April 15, 2025 Rating: 5
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