Results for volatility
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The Breakout must be Tested to be Real

April 28, 2019
By all reckoning, the US dollar had a good week.  It rose against nearly all the major currencies, and against many broke out of recent ranges.  Ironically, the dollar gains more mostly scored before the surprisingly strong Q1 GDP print of 3.2%.  In fact, all the major currencies but the Norwegian krone recouped some of their recent losses ahead o…
The Breakout must be Tested to be Real The Breakout must be Tested to be Real Reviewed by Marc Chandler on April 28, 2019 Rating: 5
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FX Vol Elevated, but Still Modest

February 08, 2018
With the substantial swings in the volatility of equities that have captured the imagination of journalists and punished investors who bought financial derivatives that profited from the low vol environment, we thought it would be helped to look at the implied volatility of the leading currencies against the US dollar.   The Great Graphic looks at…
FX Vol Elevated, but Still Modest FX Vol Elevated, but Still Modest Reviewed by Marc Chandler on February 08, 2018 Rating: 5
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Eerie Calm Shrouds Markets

May 09, 2017
The VIX, the volatility  of the S&P 500, is sometimes touted as a "fear index." Today is it extending its push below 10%, to fall to its lowest in nearly a quarter of a century.  
There has been four (Finland, Austria, the Netherlands, and France) successive European election that did not produce a victory for the euro-skeptics, who w…
Eerie Calm Shrouds Markets Eerie Calm Shrouds Markets Reviewed by Marc Chandler on May 09, 2017 Rating: 5
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Euro Trades Higher, Approaches Key Area

May 04, 2017
Despite the hawkish hold of the FOMC yesterday and increased confidence of a June hike, the euro is making new highs against the dollar since the US election last November. The euro is breaking out of the $1.0850-$1.0950 range that has dominated since the first round of the French presidential election.  
As the Great Graphic (from Bloomberg) illus…
Euro Trades Higher, Approaches Key Area Euro Trades Higher, Approaches Key Area Reviewed by Marc Chandler on May 04, 2017 Rating: 5
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Great Graphic: Surprising FX Vol Developments and Spot Implications

September 19, 2014
I keep getting peppered with queries about the rising volatility.  Some want to link it to the FOMC meeting this week or the modest participation in the ECB's new TLTRO facility.  However, the implied volatility picture is more complicated.  
This Great Graphic, created on Bloomberg, shows the implied three-month volatility of the euro (white),…
Great Graphic: Surprising FX Vol Developments and Spot Implications Great Graphic: Surprising FX Vol Developments and Spot Implications Reviewed by Marc Chandler on September 19, 2014 Rating: 5
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Great Graphic: Currency Volatility Firming

August 26, 2014
The low volatility in the currency markets has frustrated speculative investors, and dampened activity.  However, as this Bloomberg-generated Great Graphic shows, implied volatility has begun firming.   Participation appears to be increasing, and this is also evident in the futures market.  
Three-month implied euro volatility (white line) bottomed…
Great Graphic: Currency Volatility Firming Great Graphic: Currency Volatility Firming Reviewed by Marc Chandler on August 26, 2014 Rating: 5
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Thoughts on the Week Ahead: Pitfalls around the Corner

August 25, 2013
In recent weeks we have identified four main elements to the investment climate: Speculation about Fed tapering the cyclical recovery in Europe, the stabilization of China and a resumption of capital exports from Japan. 
These remain very much intact, except that in the latest reporting period, Japanese investors sold foreign bonds, breaking a s…
Thoughts on the Week Ahead: Pitfalls around the Corner Thoughts on the Week Ahead: Pitfalls around the Corner Reviewed by Marc Chandler on August 25, 2013 Rating: 5
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New Week, Same Drivers

August 11, 2013
We continue to identify four main macro issues shaping the investment climate: The tapering anticipation in the US; the stabilization of the Chinese economy; a cyclical recovery in Europe; and the long awaited Japanese purchases of foreign bonds.  
Last week' news, and the anticipated data stream this week, are expected to either reinforce th…
New Week, Same Drivers New Week, Same Drivers Reviewed by Marc Chandler on August 11, 2013 Rating: 5
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Great Graphic: Equity Flows DM >EM

July 21, 2013
This Great Graphic was posted on Business Insider, which got it from Bank of America, which relied on data from EPFR Global. It shows the cumulative capital flows into developed and emerging market equities funds since 2002.
The flow story, as one would expect, jives with the performance story we previously highlighted.  That must be one of the…
Great Graphic: Equity Flows DM >EM Great Graphic: Equity Flows DM >EM Reviewed by Marc Chandler on July 21, 2013 Rating: 5
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Fragile Markets Trying to Stabilize Ahead of Weekend

June 21, 2013
A somewhat calmer tone has emerged in the global capital markets, encouraged more, it appears, by position adjusting ahead of the weekend, rather new fundamental developments. China did inject a reported CNY50 bln via reverse repos that did help reverse most of yesterday's spike in rates. The Dollar Index is trading within yesterday's …
Fragile Markets Trying to Stabilize Ahead of Weekend Fragile Markets Trying to Stabilize Ahead of Weekend Reviewed by Marc Chandler on June 21, 2013 Rating: 5
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Currency Positioning and Technical Outlook: Downside Risk for the Dollar?

June 15, 2013
The US dollar lost ground against all the major currencies over the past week. The yen (3.5%) and New Zealand dollar (2.0%) led the pack against the greenback. Canada, Australia and Norway were the laggards, the worst was flat and the best--up almost a percent.  
We had anticipated a better showing for the US dollar. Yet, indicators suggest we w…
Currency Positioning and Technical Outlook: Downside Risk for the Dollar? Currency Positioning and Technical Outlook: Downside Risk for the Dollar? Reviewed by Marc Chandler on June 15, 2013 Rating: 5
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Yen Soars, while Dollar Stabilizes

June 13, 2013
Japanese markets seem to be driving the developments in the capital markets. The powerful short squeeze in the yen continues and the Nikkei's 6.3% slide is serving to drag down global equity prices.
The dollar was pushed through the JPY95 to hit a low near JPY93.80. These losses mean that the greenback has surrendered 38.2% of its appreciat…
Yen Soars, while Dollar Stabilizes Yen Soars, while Dollar Stabilizes Reviewed by Marc Chandler on June 13, 2013 Rating: 5
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Markets Trying to Stabilize Despite Official Rattle

May 24, 2013
Between Federal Reserve Chairman Bernanke and Bank of Japan Governor Kuroda, they have unsettled investors and injected volatility into the capital markets that has not been seen for some time. The markets are trying to return to some semblance of stability ahead of the weekend, but the ripple effects are still evident. 
The Nikkei initially retr…
Markets Trying to Stabilize Despite Official Rattle Markets Trying to Stabilize Despite Official Rattle Reviewed by Marc Chandler on May 24, 2013 Rating: 5
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Turn Around Tuesday or Not

May 14, 2013
Some of the US dollar's recent gains had been pared after its upside momentum slowed yesterday in North America. However, by midday in London the dollar came back better bid.  Although we anticipated this broader consolidation from a technical perspective, there are a couple fundamental developments that are encouraging the move.
Japanese go…
Turn Around Tuesday or Not Turn Around Tuesday or Not Reviewed by Marc Chandler on May 14, 2013 Rating: 5
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Currency Positioning and Technical Outlook: Mostly Cloudy, Chance of Rain

April 20, 2013
There are times that we find the technical picture for the currencies to be clearer than the macro economic fundamentals.  This is not one of those times.  A key challenge for traders is to determine whether it is a trending market or a sideways market .  The problem is that presently it is simply not clear.   
We begin with the Dollar Index.  Ba…
Currency Positioning and Technical Outlook: Mostly Cloudy, Chance of Rain Currency Positioning and Technical Outlook: Mostly Cloudy, Chance of Rain Reviewed by Marc Chandler on April 20, 2013 Rating: 5
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Three Surprises Leave Dollar Softer

April 09, 2013
The US dollar is generally softer in rather quiet turnover. The greenback's gains against the yen were initially extended in early Asia to about JPY99.65 before some profit-taking kicked in pushed it back to JPY98.70. Although there are some reports of Japanese institutional sales of yen, we see the bulk of the move being non-Japanese levera…
Three Surprises Leave Dollar Softer Three Surprises Leave Dollar Softer Reviewed by Marc Chandler on April 09, 2013 Rating: 5
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Great Graphic: Euro, Stocks and Volatility

January 22, 2013
The relationship between the euro, volatility and the S&P 500 is far from stable. In light of recent developments, it may be helpful to update our analysis.
1. The implied 3-month euro volatility has increased from the 5-year lows seen in the middle of last November near 6.4% to move above 9.0% at the end of last week. It has eased a bit, w…
Great Graphic: Euro, Stocks and Volatility Great Graphic: Euro, Stocks and Volatility Reviewed by Marc Chandler on January 22, 2013 Rating: 5
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Rising Volatility, Euro Out of Step

October 24, 2012
We have highlighted the contradiction between the low implied volatility and the large number of event risks on the horizon.  To us, it looked like a spring coiling.  The resolution, we anticipated, would be in favor of higher volatility, and we appreciated that there was a directional bias.  Higher volatility would likely, we thought favor lower…
Rising Volatility, Euro Out of Step Rising Volatility, Euro Out of Step Reviewed by Marc Chandler on October 24, 2012 Rating: 5
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